Podcasts by Category
From financial markets and politics to business and social issues, Dan Ferris and our Stansberry Analysts offer candid discussion on today’s most important headlines. Each week you’ll hear exclusive interviews with guest investment experts, authors, and top thinkers such as Jim Rogers, Kevin O’Leary, Glenn Beck, PJ O’Rourke, and Jim Grant. The Stansberry Investor Hour is produced by Stansberry Research, LLC.
- 358 - Stick to Your Process, Even When It's Painful
Gary Mishuris of Silver Ring Value Partners talks about today's market being one of the most challenging periods for bottom-up investing since 2007. In terms of the quality of a business versus its stock price, there isn't a lot of opportunity right now. But he emphasizes that transparency and candor with clients is essential, as is prioritizing the long-term process over short-term performance. (5:19)
Next, Gary describes what sets Silver Ring Value apart from other fund managers. He shares why he left the "sausage factory" of larger firms behind, how his firm makes money for clients rather than off of clients, and how his unique temperament and behavioral models allow him to make better investing decisions. (14:38)
Gary also goes into detail on the psychology behind investing and compares it with a game of poker. He talks about trying to avoid making mistakes, continuously learning from past errors, the importance of having guardrails in place, and cutting your losses. (21:44)
Then, Gary explains why you should never be ashamed to change your mind, even when you haven't received any new information. It's OK to reanalyze the same set of facts and admit that you were wrong, and he cites several examples of investors who have learned and grown from their past mistakes. (31:21)
Lastly, Dan and Corey discuss the consumer price index and gold. Inflation came in hotter than expected, while gold has broken out to new highs. Dan and Corey speculate on how long gold's bull run can last. Plus, they detail gold being a good hedge for retirement against the government's money-printing addiction. (48:18)
Mon, 15 Apr 2024 - 1h 12min - 357 - Ignore the Mega-Bubble Mania and Prioritize Shareholder Yield
Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing inflation staying persistently higher, rampant government spending and money-printing, and the repercussions of the Federal Reserve's decade-plus of low interest rates. (0:41)
Next, Cambria Investment Management's Meb Faber joins the conversation to talk about the exchange-traded funds ("ETFs") at Cambria and why the team focuses on shareholder yield when picking stocks for these ETFs. He breaks down the importance of shareholder yield in mega-bubble markets like today's and urges investors to pay more attention to it. (24:25)
Meb then discusses managing risk on a portfolio level, including focusing on quality and value. He also covers why emerging and foreign markets are so attractive today, the opportunity in fixed-income investments like bonds and Treasury bills, and how higher interest rates have changed the game. (38:21)
Finally, Meb describes himself as a value investor and shares which areas of the economy he's most concerned about. He talks about inflation driving commodities sharply higher, gold hitting new highs, and why investing at all-time highs can still be a smart choice. (56:43)
Mon, 08 Apr 2024 - 1h 16min - 356 - The Best Investors Treat Trading Like Blackjack
Dan and Corey kick off the show by reviewing the most recent PCE number, what's happening with inflation, and the current state of the economy. (0:41)
Next, real estate expert and entrepreneur George Gammon joins the conversation and explains how he became a self-described "macro addict" without any formal education in the world of finance or economics. Plus, he discusses why he considers himself a libertarian and why most investors and billionaires would fall into this category, even if they don't self- identify as such. (21:59)
Further, George describes how his investment style is influenced by being a libertarian. By default, his view is that the government is always going to do the wrong thing, resulting in unintended, net-negative consequences. George also goes into detail on the similarities between value investing and trend following. He argues that successful value investors are always looking for a catalyst so that they can catch the trend at its very beginning stages, while stereotypical investors are happy to catch the middle portion of the trend. (34:16)
Lastly, George explores the biggest differences between retail investors and professional investors. He details the strategy that the best hedge-fund managers use: starting with a macro view and then looking at the fundamentals and the narrative later. George emphasizes that these experts spend most of their time deciding how to position themselves and using asymmetry to stack the odds in their favor like in a game of blackjack. (46:32)
Mon, 01 Apr 2024 - 1h 14min - 355 - Finding the Winning 6% of Drugs
Dan and Corey kick off the show by arguing against the Federal Reserve potentially cutting rates this year. They point out that inflation is persistently volatile, gas prices are soaring and hurting everyday consumers, and the Fed is "pretending that everything is OK," according to Corey. Dan also brings up the fact that 2024 being an election year may have something to do with this. (0:43)
Next, Stansberry Venture Technology editor Dave Lashmet joins the conversation to discuss the biotech industry. He explains that he doesn't see biotech as a sector, and rather he looks bottom up at biotech companies to find a drug that will have a macroeconomic effect. Because only 6% of drugs that start a Phase I trial succeed, he says being selective is crucial. Dave also describes the three phases of drug testing and the importance of efficacy and safety data. (17:55)
After, Dave talks all things weight-loss drugs. He reflects on how he knew Ozempic was going to be a blockbuster drug from his boots-on-the-ground research, the incredible room for growth in this area, and the unprecedented amounts of money that biotech companies are spending on factories to develop these weight-loss drugs. (24:36)
Further, Dave discusses why the obesity epidemic has worsened over the decades and how exactly weight-loss drugs work to increase metabolism and suppress appetite. It involves something he calls the "winter switch." Plus, Dave brings up the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approving these drugs for the purpose of reducing strokes and heart attacks by nearly 20%. (32:40)
Lastly, Dave talks about the widespread economic implications behind weight-loss drugs and other areas of the market that could be impacted, such as the airline industry. However, Dave emphasizes once again that any mass changes are still years away due to supply constraints. (41:20)
Mon, 25 Mar 2024 - 1h 00min - 354 - Why Biotech Is an Excellent Contrarian Play Today
Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing both bubbles and "anti-bubble" stocks. Dan mentions how the S&P 500 Index's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, with data going back to 1871, is currently in the top 1%. He even believes this is the biggest mega- bubble in all of recorded history. (0:41)
Next, Porter & Co. analyst Erez Kalir joins the conversation and shares his financial philosophy. He talks about investing legends who have influenced his investing style, the importance of avoiding labels, and how successful investing is similar to using a Swiss Army knife. Plus, Erez explains the yin and yang of macroeconomics versus security-specific fundamentals and how there are extreme periods where one can entirely dominate the other. (13:00)
After, Erez goes into detail about biotech – the sector's history in the stock market, how it's shaped by interest rates, and how you can find companies trading at an extreme discount with negative enterprise value. He argues that not being able to time the markets is merely a myth, and he shares the seven factors he uses to evaluate whether a biotech stock is worth buying. (21:59)
Lastly, Erez explains why the conditions are right for biotech stocks today. He covers the sector being hated and how this gives savvy investors a chance to break away from the herd and profit. (38:36)
Mon, 18 Mar 2024 - 1h 00min - 353 - 'Boring' Times Ahead Could Mean Fantastic Gains
Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing famed economist Nouriel "Dr. Doom" Roubini and his current bullish stance. They explore whether Dr. Doom is correct in his optimism, if gold's new all-time highs are here to stay, and what could happen next with bitcoin. (0:41)
Next, Stansberry Research editor Brett Eversole joins the conversation and talks about where he thinks stocks will go this year thanks to the election. After, he analyzes the overall health of the market using several different metrics, urges investors to invest based on the size of a company's market capitalization, gives his thoughts on whether small-cap stocks can catch up to the rest of the market, and reviews moments of extreme volatility in history. (16:49)
Further, Brett describes a shareholder yield fund and how it works. He points out that if you buy companies that return a lot of cash to shareholders, those companies tend to go up a lot over time. He also discusses the strategies he uses in his True Wealth publication to find winning stocks, buy in at the right time, and protect capital. (29:35)
Finally, Brett explains why he isn't investing in individual Chinese stocks today, but he provides one unique way to still profit from China that you may have never heard of. (47:15
Mon, 11 Mar 2024 - 1h 07min - 352 - You're Only Ever a Contrarian or a Victim in Natural Resource Investing
Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing Warren Buffett's recent letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. In it, he honored his late colleague and friend Charlie Munger, plus gave updates on some of Berkshire's businesses. Dan and Corey also cover Apple switching its resources over from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence. (0:41)
Next, Rick Rule – president and CEO of Rule Investment Media – joins the conversation. He goes into depth on models, such as the discounted cash flow model. He talks about the flaws with models, why models are only useful for apples-to-apples comparisons, and how a model can be used on exploration companies or similar companies that don't have revenues. (24:32)
After, Rick goes into detail on the uranium market. He describes why uranium companies have mothballed production, what makes uranium so unique in the natural resources world, the differences between the spot and term markets, and how to interpret uranium companies' financials. (33:18)
Lastly, Rick calls out several commodities that present good investing opportunities today. He describes one of them as "stupidly cheap"... another he says is hated by investors and its market is in disarray... and the final two, he explains, are being sold off because of an incorrect belief that we don't need internal-combustion engines anymore. Rick even goes one step further and namedrops specific companies that could be worth looking into to take advantage of these price discounts. (49:15)
Mon, 04 Mar 2024 - 1h 11min - 351 - Tactical Turning Points Are the Secret to Finding Winners
Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing new highs in the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, Japan's Nikkei 225 Index, and chipmaker Nvidia's stock. They analyze what these new highs mean, whether the U.S. is still in a mega-bubble, what's happening with the Japanese economy, and if Nvidia can continue its outperformance. (0:41)
Next, Chaikin Analytics Chief Market Strategist Pete Carmasino joins the conversation and describes his investing style. He notes that he mainly looks at price. By using technical analysis and studying the fundamentals, trends, and the relative strength versus the market, he can decipher whether a stock is overbought. (20:28)
Further, Pete talks about the importance of risk management and taking advantage of tactical moves. He gives investors advice for how to determine when something is a tactical sell or a tactical buy, discusses the relationship between technicals and fundamentals, and explains why he looks at both offensive and defensive sectors for investing opportunities.(25:55)
Pete then details why he's never too bullish or bearish at any given time, plus how the Chaikin Analytics Power Gauge system helps him find potential winners. He describes his process for interpreting the signals and discusses the fundamentals he needs to see to be interested in a stock. (39:47)
Lastly, Pete hammers home the importance of rates – particularly the unemployment rate, since the Federal Reserve uses it to determine the federal-funds rate. He also shares the top five subsectors currently and names a few stocks within those sectors that could be worth keeping an eye on. (51:15)
Tue, 27 Feb 2024 - 1h 06min - 350 - Don't Let Your Ego Drive You to Make Bad Decisions | Harley Bassman
Dan and Corey kick things off by discussing bitcoin hitting a new multiyear high. They also critique a popular bullish argument for bitcoin, which is based off the U.S. dollar collapsing. After, they talk about the S&P 500 Index surpassing 5,000 for the first time ever and whether this level is sustainable in the long term. (0:40)
Next, Harley Bassman of Simplify Asset Management joins the conversation and explains a concept called "convexity." He covers the three kinds of risk in bond investing, why short convexity is always lurking during market downturns, and why negative convexity is so difficult for investors to process. (24:53)
Harley also goes into detail on mortgage-backed securities funds. He describes what mortgage bonds are, why they yield more than corporate bonds, and how the Federal Reserve plays a huge role in all of this. (32:20)
Lastly, Harley talks about Simplify and how it offers a unique service by jamming derivatives of all kinds (futures, options, etc.) into ETFs so civilians can invest in them. He also discusses what it was like working at Merrill Lynch during the great financial crisis, gives general investing advice, and explains what pin risk is. (48:55)
Wed, 14 Feb 2024 - 1h 12min - 349 - It's Time to Upgrade Capitalism
Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing debt spirals, death spirals, their effect on things like GDP and economic growth, and the increasing reliance on debt spending. They point out that the U.S. government's annual interest payment on debt will soon surpass the budget for national defense. Dan also speculates that the government is using illegal immigration as a means to depress wages. (0:41) Next, crypto expert Eric Wade joins the conversation by discussing his current thoughts on the crypto market as a whole. He notes that the U.S. just approved bitcoin spot ETFs, which will allow investors to profit from bitcoin without actually holding the token. He also brings up the bitcoin halving that's happening this April, AI's role in crypto, and how crypto is being used to solve real-world problems. Eric briefly name-drops two such cryptos that have real- world applications today. (22:08)After, he goes into detail on his new book called America vs. Americans: How Capitalism Has Failed a Capitalist Nation and What We Can Do About It. This book focuses on American "laborism," the shortcomings of our current capitalist system, and how all of this could be improved. Eric describes that government, economics, and politics are a lot closer together than they should be. He explores the history of capitalism and talks about the glaring flaws of the economic system that preceded it – mercantilism. (35:30) Eric then transitions into talking about laborism and how it could be an upgrade from capitalism. He spends the rest of the episode detailing how it could pull millions of folks out of poverty, why it would be so closely tied to education, and the fact it would call for a hard currency and a smaller government with less government intervention. As he explains, it could solve many of the country's problems. (42:35)
Mon, 05 Feb 2024 - 1h 32min - 348 - Successful Trading is the Antithesis of Human Nature
Dan and Corey begin the show by discussing evidence that we're still in a bear market. They bring up equal-weight indexes fizzling out since December, the now "Magnificent Six" tech stocks still dominating, and the possibility of a decade long sideways market.
After, contrarian trader Jason Shapiro of digital publishing company Crowded Market Report joins the conversation and gives an overview of his trading style, his financial journey, and how his strategy differs from many other traders'. While others are looking to ride the trend, Jason explains that he's looking to "fade" it and find when the trend will turn. When speaking specifically about putting the risk-reward ratio in his favor over time, he says the discounting mechanism in the market is not price – it's participation.
This segues into a discussion about how Jason's process works. He gives advice to individual investors who are just starting out, including warning of the dangers of following trends and "copy trading." He also details how trading goes against human nature.
Then, Jason discusses automation in his field of work – when he uses it and when he ignores its advice – and provides some examples of his strategy in action. He emphasizes that market confirmation should always come first
Lastly, Jason explains why he's so adamant about sharing his approaches and techniques with everyday investors that they can't find in traditional financial media. And you won't want to miss Jason's answer to the final question... He shares what he believes is the real secret behind making money in the markets.
Tue, 30 Jan 2024 - 1h 09min - 347 - The Easiest Way to Rank Almost 5,000 Stocks
Dan and Corey kick things off by discussing Argentine President Javier Milei's incendiary speech at the recent World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. They start by quoting some passages from it and covering the main themes – from the negative consequences of government intervention to potentially abolishing the central bank. After, they talk about why this type of rhetoric from a politician would never fly in the U.S., even though it reflects a lot of people's feelings.
Next, Stansberry Research Director of Research Matt Weinschenk joins the conversation and elaborates on what type of investor he considers himself to be. He brings up value investing, the importance of bottom-up business-quality analysis, and how he uses quantitative tools to find the best businesses.
Matt then explains the "Stansberry Score," which ranks nearly 5,000 stocks from first to last. It assigns each stock both an overall number and letter grade, plus letter grades for financials, capital efficiency, and valuation. Investors can use it to check ratings on stocks they may be interested in, or they can use it to find hidden gems. If you're interested in learning more about this tool and trying it for free, you can check it out at StansberryAnnouncement.com.
Matt also goes into detail on The Quant Portfolio. This new portfolio is fully optimized and uses Stansberry Score data to evaluate each stock. Entirely using computers and algorithms, it looks at the relationships between each stock and picks out the best ones that will work together to provide the highest returns. And so far, it's blowing the market out of the water! Matt emphasizes that in the past two years of live testing, The Quant Portfolio is up 20%, while the market is only up 5.
Lastly, Matt talks all things econometrics – what it is, whether it's worth studying, and its interplay with machine learning.
Mon, 29 Jan 2024 - 1h 07min - 346 - Get Ready for Volatility warns Greg Diamond
Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing car-rental company Hertz selling one-third of its electric-vehicle ("EV") fleet and planning to reinvest in gas-powered cars. They talk about the reasons for this move, why EVs might not be a popular choice as rentals, signs that oil and gas companies are still thriving, and how the green-energy transition could lead to higher inflation.
Next, welcome Stansberry Research analyst Greg Diamond joins the conversation and analyzes the current volatility in the markets. He explains that investors and the financial media believe the Federal Reserve has beaten inflation and is going to start cutting rates soon. But as Greg notes, the opposite is most likely to happen. He also goes into detail on his study of cycles.
Then, Greg predicts important inflection points for 2024, describes how legendary trader W.D. Gann influenced his trading strategy, and explores the potential ramifications of the Fed ending its bank lending program in March. He also details why he'll be trading sectors for the first half of the year rather than individual stocks.
Lastly, Greg talks about correlations between the S&P 500 and specific exchange-traded funds. He assesses what it means for the markets when divergences happen and how extreme volatility leads to great buying opportunities. As Greg sums things up, "I think it's going to be a rough ride for bulls and bears."
Wed, 17 Jan 2024 - 1h 14min - 345 - Don't Place all Your Chips on One Outcome
Dan and Corey begin the show by discussing Disney. They cover the company's ongoing proxy battle with Nelson Peltz, its recent deal with activist investor ValueAct Capital, the negative impacts of its "wokeism," the new Star Wars director's controversial past comments, and whether the stock is worth buying today. (0:40)
Next, Jeff Muhlenkamp joins the conversation and gives his reaction to a "surprising" 2023. Plus, he talks about what's in store for the markets this year, why it's unclear whether we're headed for a recession or not since, and how you should structure your portfolio to protect you no matter what happens. (26:23)
Then, Jeff explains what he learned from the great financial crisis in 2008 and how he applies it to his investing strategy today. He gives investors advice on everything from keeping some cash on hand to handling stocks that soar quickly. (35:40)
Lastly, Jeff discusses regional banking (44:00), two notable stock buys (46:47), and his process for picking stocks (51:31). He details which metrics he looks at, why financial newsletters are good places to look for ideas, and how to know when to exit a stock.
Mon, 08 Jan 2024 - 1h 10min - 344 - The Top 10 Potential Surprises for 2024
Dan Ferris and Corey McLaughlin kick the episode off by reviewing their list of Top 10 Potential Surprises from 2023 and seeing if any of the surprises materialized. Included in this list was what could happen to the S&P 500 Index, meme stocks GameStop and AMC Entertainment, inflation, bitcoin, mortgage rates, and gold. (0:32)
After, Dan and Corey share their new list of potential surprises for 2024... Magnificent Seven perform poorly (9:38) S&P 500 negative annual return (13:16) Rate cuts (15:58) Gold hits $3,000 (19:15) Bitcoin falls 50%-plus (24:04) PCE at 4% (28:08) Donald Trump presidency (31:51) Nasty recession (37:27) 10-year yields above 4% (42:15) S&P 500 drops 20% in a single day (44:52
Wed, 03 Jan 2024 - 1h 00min - 343 - Stansberry Investor Hour's 2023 Year in Review - Mailbag Edition
On this week's special mailbag episode of Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan Ferris and Corey McLaughlin are answering some of the most interesting questions they've received in recent weeks from subscribers. They tackle everything that has been on your mind – and a few things that you probably haven't even considered. Dan and Corey kick things off with questions about whether the green-energy movement and threats to eliminate fossil fuels will boost the price of oil... the broken housing market in the U.S. and what it means for homebuilders... nuclear energy's potential as a big source of power in America... and where uranium prices are headed next based on the supply-and-demand picture.
Next, Dan and Corey address a listener who hates that they let the cat out of the bag on the upside in farmland... and respond to another listener who wants them to talk more about specific stocks and less about the Federal Reserve. Plus, Dan and Corey answer questions about political correctness, the love of money being the root of all evil, how to profit from war, and why they prefer U.S. Treasurys to money-market funds.
Finally, Dan and Corey discuss the threat the high national debt level poses for the U.S., the development of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) as a geopolitical and economic power, and whether the U.S. losing its world reserve currency status would really be such a bad thing.
Wed, 27 Dec 2023 - 51min - 342 - How to Avoid Losing Your Mind in the Market with Hari P. Krishnan
Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing 2023 as a whole. They talk about the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a new all-time high recently and investors looking forward to the Federal Reserve cutting rates. Plus, they go over what they're bullish on for 2024 – including homebuilders, bitcoin, and energy, among others.
Next, author and hedge-fund manager Hari Krishnan joins the podcast to discuss his toolbox of strategies for profiting after a market sell-off. He notes that there are times that are great for buying credit, while other times aren't so good. And the same principle applies to other areas of the market as well, like with volatility.
The conversation then shifts to how the average investor could utilize Hari's strategies. He gives a few examples of what to do in different scenarios. And he especially emphasizes the importance of having a plan.
Further, Hari details how he assesses and categorizes risk. He describes why he looks at consistency across different asset classes and how this helps him find winning investments. Plus, Hari talks about the cycles of volatility, using equities as an example. He explains that risk taking drives the market upward, which leads to even more risk taking. It then becomes a vicious cycle that feeds on itself until it breaks.
Finally, Dan asks Hari for his opinions on the S&P 500 Index's recent rally. Hari brings up the fact that there are currently high levels of complacency in the markets, and he argues that now is a great time for investors to think about hedges for their portfolios. He finishes by urging investors to look beyond the U.S. stock market and to broaden their opportunities with other asset classes.
Tue, 19 Dec 2023 - 1h 14min - 341 - Why Companies Are Afraid of Being Politically Correct with Whitney Tilson
Dan and Corey kick the show off by discussing the newest unemployment number and its implications for inflation, rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the stock market, and the future of the economy. They speculate that this unemployment rate could result in the Fed putting off rate cuts for even longer.
Next, Whitney joins the conversation by discussing the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks and explains why he thinks smaller-cap, more value-oriented stocks will be driving the markets next. He also compares Tesla CEO Elon Musk's "rampant narcissism," "bro culture" at the company, and antisemitic tweets with exemplars like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger.
This leads to a discussion about how cultural differences affect businesses. Whitney brings up Anheuser-Busch's Bud Light ad campaign with a transgender influencer and Disney fighting Ron DeSantis' controversial bill in Florida. He shares why he thinks companies are "running pretty darn scared these days" after seeing both those iconic businesses suffer for taking political stances.
Then, Whitney talks about his Top 10 list. He details why Berkshire Hathaway continues to be such an attractive opportunity today and why it's the perfect foundation for any portfolio. And he also emphasizes that we are no longer in a TINA world, or "there is no alternative."
Finally, Whitney gives his opinion on what he thinks the Fed will do next in terms of interest rates and what the potential outcomes could be. You also won't want to miss his answer to Dan's final question, where he explains why it's crucial to limit the amount of "partisan and polarized" information you're consuming in traditional media, since it could be affecting your investing choices.
Tue, 12 Dec 2023 - 1h 13min - 340 - It's About to Be 2008 All Over Again
Dan and Corey start by remembering Charlie Munger, reviewing his career and legacy. Plus, they cover Elon Musk's recent remarks against Disney, the chances of X (formerly known as Twitter) going bankrupt, and Musk's efforts to bring free speech to the platform. (0:40)
Next, Joel and Rob join the show to discuss the narrative around a soft landing, the rolling- recession "nonsense," and investors getting lulled into a false sense of confidence and believing everything is fine in the markets. Joel details the macroeconomic signals that are flashing globally – from China's failings dragging the world down to hyperinflation and recession in multiple Latin American countries. Joel explains why he and Rob have recently made a major change in their forward market outlook. (26:18)
Rob adds that another reason for their bearishness is the current credit environment. Credit is the lifeblood of the American economy. But now, it's disappearing. And according to Rob, that will further hurt economic growth. Plus, Joel explains that this same setup happened at the beginning of the great financial crisis. (34:21)
The conversation then shifts to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's devotion to lowering inflation to 2%, the reality of "structurally higher" inflation, and how high interest rates are leading to massive investing opportunities in near-term cash-flow companies. (38:37)
Finally, Joel and Rob discuss the bond market and why they find it so attractive today... give their opinions on "terrifying" business development companies... and analyze the Fed's next moves in regard to unemployment. (46:18)
Mon, 04 Dec 2023 - 1h 06min - 339 - Don't Let Money Be Your Master Warns Jared Dillian
Dan and Corey kick off the show by giving a sneak peek at their list of 10 things that would surprise investors in 2024 and where they predict the markets are headed. Specifically, they discuss the unassailable Magnificent Seven – which are "priced for more than perfection" – and why the high valuations aren't sustainable. While the other "Unmagnificent 493" stocks in the S&P 500 Index are essentially flat and it's "still a bear market for everything else," the Magnificent Seven have screamed higher. Dan warns that they're not safe.
Afterward, Jared joins the conversation and gives some tips on how to make finance less stressful. He shares that it's important to not cut out small luxuries that bring you happiness, like a Starbucks coffee every now and then. Rather, he says to focus on cutting costs for the bigger items. He also explains that being too conservative with your money can be detrimental.
The conversation shifts to discussing the two main sources of financial stress: debt and risk. Jared explains that these sources of stress aren't correlated with how much money you have and instead are entirely based on how you structure your finances.
Jared then talks about the market as a whole and shares some predictions. He covers why he has been focused on the bond market for the past six months, why he expects a recession next year, what he thinks will happen to Treasurys and interest rates, and the psychology behind inflation.
Lastly, Jared details why he owns essentially no U.S. stocks and instead has his money in Argentine stocks. Plus, he describes another emerging market that presents a "huge opportunity" for investors. As he says, "There's other places in the world to go where there's a lot more growth that are a lot more promising." Don't miss his thoughts on the best way to get exposure to that potential growth story.
Mon, 27 Nov 2023 - 1h 05min - 338 - The Imminent Death of the Middle Class with Porter Stansberry
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Porter Stansberry back to the show. Porter founded Stansberry Research in 1999, and he recently returned as CEO and chairman of parent company MarketWise (MKTW). With more than 25 years of experience as a financial analyst and publisher to draw on, Porter shares his opinions on the current state of the markets and which areas of the economy look most attractive today.But first, Dan and Corey talk about investors' unfounded hopes for falling interest rates and some Wall Street analysts predicting that the Federal Reserve will soon cut rates by 150 basis points. "I just don't see that happening," Corey says. Afterward, the conversation shifts to the bond market, the drop in demand for U.S. Treasurys, China "imploding minute by minute," and the biggest "turkeys" who have made the most absurd financial decisions this year. Plus, Dan explores investor psychology and how it has been warped by a decade-plus of low rates and the longest bull market in history. (0:00)
Porter then joins the show and discusses why Ayn Rand's 1957 book Atlas Shrugged continues to be relevant today, General Motors' chances of going bankrupt again, and his "new, old" job as CEO of MarketWise. He explains his strategy for the company going forward. (25:08)
Moving on to the broader economy, Porter shares an updated prediction of what he sees coming for the market. In mid-September, he was concerned we were on the cusp of another major financial crisis. But now he thinks the immediate danger may be past. (42:34)
Porter also shares that most quality businesses out there trade for high valuations, but those with unrecognized quality still present fantastic buying opportunities today. Even companies that have recently made negative headlines can still have incredible underlying value.(48:48)
Finally, Porter details what's happening in the bond market right now and why he believes it's worth investing in. And you won't want to miss his parting message, where he explains why it's a great time to be alive despite any global issues or societal problems. "Most investors make the mistake of not being optimistic enough," he says. (57:35)
Mon, 20 Nov 2023 - 1h 16min - 337 - A Needed Dose of Reality in a Sea of Pessimism with Marc Chaikin
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Marc Chaikin. After 50 years working on Wall Street, Marc founded our corporate affiliate – Chaikin Analytics – to guide everyday investors. Marc starts by describing how his Power Gauge helps investors identify stocks, excel in timing investments, and most importantly, prevent portfolio losses. "No matter how good your fundamental research is or quant model [is], if the market doesn't agree with you, guess who wins? The market always wins; you're investing in what I call "dead money," he states.
Then, Marc explores 2023 being a difficult year for bearish investors, the likelihood of a recession, and how artificial intelligence ("AI") has led to unprecedented productivity enhancements. "That's where this whole convergence of technology, data, and machine learning comes in. I think it's going to unleash unbelievable advances in medicine, data analytics for retail, and self-driving cars eventually," he asserts.
Finally, Marc shares his thoughts on today's market, including the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, the U.S. national debt, the real estate sector, and 10-year Treasury yields. He explains that he and many other leading investors are bullish on stocks, but the media prefers doom-and-gloom headlines for clicks. "They just don't want to put optimists on TV because it's not controversial," he concludes.
Mon, 13 Nov 2023 - 1h 02min - 336 - The Weight Loss Revolution is Underway
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by David Cervantes, principal and founder of Pinebrook Capital Management. David shares his groundbreaking thesis that could transform not only health care but also the broader economy. But first, Dan and Corey discuss disgraced FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried being found guilty of fraud, coworking-space company WeWork's impending bankruptcy, and fluctuating Treasury yields. (00:48)
Next, David joins the conversation to detail the far-reaching consequences of obesity, plus the potential impact of new weight-loss drugs on the economy. He notes that obesity not only places a significant financial burden on the health care system but also hampers overall productivity and gross domestic product ("GDP") growth rates. However, David clarifies that GLP-1 (or glucagon-like peptide 1) drugs have the potential to revolutionize obesity treatment. (26:28)
David then explores the potential winners and losers of this medical innovation. He stresses that it's not too late to make money off the drug manufacturers since there are plenty of companies developing and trying to improve these weight-loss drugs right now. He also touches on other sectors that will benefit from mass weight loss. (41:45)
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Mon, 06 Nov 2023 - 1h 05min - 335 - Why Gold Is on the Brink of a Historic Surge
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Rudi Fronk, chairman, CEO, and co-founder of Seabridge Gold (SA). But first, Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing the latest numbers for gross domestic product ("GDP") and the core personal consumption expenditures price index. Then, they also explore what they think the Federal Reserve will do next and what will happen to the stock market. (00:41)
Next, Rudi joins the show to chat about Seabridge Gold, the outlook for the gold market, and risk within the industry. Rudi emphasizes that Seabridge is not a mining company, and it instead partners with major mining companies to co-develop assets while retaining around 40% to 49% interest in projects. (16:21)
He believes the current challenges in the Treasury market as well as hedge funds using leverage to accumulate positions will ultimately drive gold prices to new heights. Rudi boldly predicts that gold will surpass its previous all-time high of approximately $2,063 an ounce by the end of this year. Moreover, he details why he foresees gold's price surging to multiples of its current value over the next few years. (24:26)
Rudi concludes by explaining why it's so difficult for mining companies to turn a profit and why so many of them never get any dollars out of the ground. "I don't have a high respect for most of my industry," he says simply. If you're interested in investing in the gold industry or just want to know more about it, don't miss this week's show. (36:32)
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Mon, 30 Oct 2023 - 51min - 334 - It's the End of Globalization as We Know It with Peter Zeihan
In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome geopolitical strategist and critically acclaimed author Peter Zeihan back to the show. But first, reporting live from the conference, Dan and Corey share their insights from this valuable event for subscribers. They offer a recap of the presentations delivered by notable figures, including Stansberry Research founder Porter Stansberry, legendary cyclist Lance Armstrong, and respected financial writer Morgan Housel. (:41)
Then Peter joins the show to dissect the ongoing Ukraine situation and other geopolitical conflicts dominating the headlines. Peter discusses Israel's strategic shift from being a technology consumer to a producer, saying "Israelis, almost to a Chinese scale, were stealing tech... and so they decided to go in the business of making tech." Dan and Peter also explore investment prospects in Israel, what a peace treaty between Saudi Arabia and Israel would mean, how Iran could disrupt the peace process, and incompetence in the Israeli government. (16:50)
Finally, Dan and Peter shift their focus to China. The nation is undergoing dramatic shifts in demographics and experiencing a severe population decline, which has profound implications for the nation's future. Peter predicts that China will cease to exist as a unified industrialized nation within the next decade. (36:18)
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Mon, 23 Oct 2023 - 53min - 333 - Mindless Buying: The Driving Force Behind Modern Market Dynamics with Michael Green
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Michael "Mike" Green. Mike is the chief strategist and portfolio manager of Simplify Asset Management – an investment advisory firm. He has spent nearly 30 years studying markets and market structures, and he brings his decades of insight to today's show.
But first, Dan and Corey discuss the evolving landscape of the bond market, the opportunity in Treasury bills, and the potential impact of high bond yields on the broader investment world. Corey warns...
Take advantage of it now, because if the economy goes in the crapper in the future, the [bond] rates are going to go down when the Fed cuts [interest] rates.
Mike then joins the conversation to delve into the world of passive investing, which involves never transacting and only ever holding assets. This leads to a strategy of mindless buying:
[The stock market is] marching upwards, being led by a very few number of extremely large-cap stocks that have relatively limited growth prospects... In real terms, PepsiCo's sales are down over the last decade. This is true for companies like Apple where their sales growth, since the introduction of the iPhone 5, [is] stagnant... certainly not justifying the types of valuations that we see.
Finally, Mike details how the Federal Reserve can influence the markets with interest rates, and in turn how interest rates can affect passive investing. Moreover, he highlights the unique opportunity in the bond market and explains why bonds are an attractive option for investors.
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Tue, 17 Oct 2023 - 1h 05min - 332 - 'Investing Is Back' – But It Looks Different
In this week's episode of Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Harris "Kuppy" Kupperman back to the show. But first, Dan and Corey discuss the surprising employment numbers that exceeded expectations and fueled speculation about further interest-rate hikes. They also cover the turbulence in the bond market and the significance of the yield curve finally correcting after more than 18 months of inversion. (00:41)
Next, Kuppy joins the show to express his skepticism about the widespread belief that the world can revert to "normalcy," that interest rates will decline, and that another bull market will kick off. Instead, he explains why he thinks there will be significant changes in the next couple of years while "everyone's playing the old playbook." (20:22)
Kuppy also gives his take on the overall economy, addressing sectors with inflationary correlations. He describes his outlook on inflation as a series of sine waves, with periodic fluctuations of heating up or cooling down. However, he focuses on the overarching trend of upward inflation and predicts that it will surpass previous highs in the coming years. (31:24)
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Mon, 09 Oct 2023 - 1h 01min - 331 - Why the BRICS Expansion Isn't the End of the Dollar
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by renowned economist Jim Rickards, who details his illustrious career, the development of the BRICS currency, and its potential ramifications for the global monetary system. But first, Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing store closures, Amazon's monopoly allegations, and commercial real estate's decline. (00:41)
Next, Jim joins the conversation to share some of what he has learned during his storied career, specifically from being the general counsel on a hedge fund's $3.6 billion rescue deal. He also explains why he grew dissatisfied with risk management and how he became one of the first in finance to use "complexity theory." (20:06)
Dan then steers the conversation to the BRICS initiative – i.e., the five countries' goal to create an alternative currency that will challenge the dominance of the U.S. dollar. Jim explains the origins of BRICS, highlighting how they have created financial institutions similar to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. (33:31)
Jim stresses the significance of the BRICS currency, as it would facilitate trade among member nations without the need to rely on the U.S. dollar. However, Jim emphasizes that a BRICS currency should not be interpreted as the end of the U.S. dollar's reign. Rather, it would be a formidable competitor in the global currency arena. (41:41)
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Mon, 02 Oct 2023 - 1h 05min - 330 - Why U.S. Stocks Are Flashing Code Red
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Joel Litman, the founder of our corporate affiliate Altimetry. But first, Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing the latest Federal Reserve meeting, a recent study about what happens to stock price when artificial intelligence ("AI") gives answers at earnings calls instead of humans, and the emergence of a robot CEO for a rum company. (00:00)
Next, Joel joins the conversation and gives the reasons for his growing bearish sentiment. He points out some significant red flags that have caught his and his fellow analysts' attention, including the historical pattern of a credit crisis preceding every major bear market. Joel explains that the current sentiment and valuation trends are heading in the wrong direction. (16:42)
Joel then moves on to the impact of high interest rates on the market. He explains that he and the folks at Altimetry employ "Uniform Accounting" principles, meaning they do not use the same price-to-earnings multiples as Bloomberg or CNBC. Instead, they perform their own calculations. Joel argues that, to control inflation, interest rates need to be maintained at a level higher than what Fed Chair Jerome Powell seems to favor. (20:56)
Finally, Joel discusses U.S. stocks being overallocated in investors' portfolios today and why this serves as a concerning indicator of market conditions. Plus, looking globally, he details why he finds Chinese and Russian stocks unattractive for investment. (37:36)
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Mon, 25 Sep 2023 - 1h 04min - 329 - Bullish Momentum vs. Bearish Concerns: Will 2024 Be a Trader's Market?
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Stansberry colleague Greg Diamond the editor of Ten Stock Trader, a trading service based on technical analysis. Dan and Corey cover the European Central Bank raising its rates to a multidecade high, inflation "killing people on Main Street" who are racking up credit-card debt, and poverty levels rising. (00:41)
Next, Greg joins the conversation by talking about his overall perspective on the market. He explains why he thinks "2024 is going to be a trader's market" despite believing that huge uptrends will come to an end. And he says banks will play a crucial role in determining overall market health (18:03)
Regardless of these concerns, Greg maintains a bullish sentiment as long as the existing upward trend remains intact. "It's not time to sell yet," he emphasizes. He then proceeds to share his insights on the Fed, highlighting its inherently political nature and its susceptibility to political influence. (30:53)
Finally, Greg discusses his primary objective when determining whether a market is poised to rise or fall. To leverage his positions, he frequently embraces higher risk levels but carefully optimizes his trading advantage in other ways. (40:14)
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Mon, 18 Sep 2023 - 1h 00min - 328 - Two Experts Reveal Their Bullish Picks - AI, Energy, and More
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by two of their Stansberry Research colleagues, Matt McCall and Brett Eversole. But first, Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing three famous investors who all made headlines recently for giving negative future market outlooks.
Brett and Matt join the conversation by talking about why they're bullish right now. Matt notes that the reason 2022 was so brutal for investors was because of the Federal Reserve rapidly raising interest rates. While one more small rate hike before the year's end is possible, Matt still thinks the rate cycle is nearly over. This would, in turn, be good for equities and move the markets higher.
Then, Brett shares some of his AI-industry favorites... and notes that the market as a whole has the potential to massively increase productivity, leading to increased margins. Specifically, Brett believes there's a structural change happening in the companies that make up the stock market.
Finally, Brett and Matt talk briefly about housing supply and homebuilders before launching into the energy sector. Brett emphasizes that while there's a push for green energy, we're going to need fossil fuels for a very long time. Plus, Matt highlights the problem of many renewable-energy projects being completely built but unable to get onto the energy grid because the grid is so old.
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Tue, 12 Sep 2023 - 1h 02min - 327 - The Hottest Sector to Find Beaten-Down Value
This week in Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by their Stansberry Research colleague, Bryan Beach. Bryan is the editor of Stansberry Venture Value, which is Stansberry's small-cap value newsletter. Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by dissecting the latest in the market, starting with the recent Republican political debate and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's presence in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. (00:00)
Bryan then joins the conversation to break down his value-investment approach. This approach extends across industries and is guided by the pursuit of "value nuggets." One of Bryan's central investing tenets involves identifying companies that have experienced significant declines in value. And right now, the Software as a Service ("SaaS") space is a prime example of such undervaluation. (20:53)
The conversation then shifts to Bryan's previous role as an accountant. He recalls Wall Street's historical inclination toward upfront software-purchase models, which encompassed future maintenance packages and fees. But Salesforce changed all that in the early 2010s by reshaping the software landscape. The transition toward the SaaS model gained remarkable traction between 2015 and 2021. (27:50)
More recently, SaaS companies have experienced a downturn in popularity. But Bryan sees this as an opportunity. Bryan and Dan go into how if Warren Buffett were a young investor today, he would likely be captivated by the software sector. The two draw connections between Buffett's historical interest in newspapers and the appeal of software business today. Bryan highlights their affordability and upward momentum, making them prime investment candidates. (46:00)
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Mon, 28 Aug 2023 - 1h 05min - 326 - Honest Money: The Power of Gold in Monetary Systems
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Keith Weiner. He's the founder and CEO of Monetary Metals, a gold investment firm. But first, Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing the potential implications of stress in the bond market, and how bond yields have been showing signs of movement. Plus, they highlight that the yield curve could be signaling a recession sign. (00:00)
Next, Keith joins the conversation by sharing his beliefs on gold and the world's monetary system. He starts with his "origin story," describing how he founded and then sold a successful software company. Then Keith and Dan shift gears to dive into the current state of the economy. With three of the largest bank failures in history this year and the U.S.'s credit being downgraded recently, they discuss how this may be affecting people's attitudes toward gold. (18:34)
Finally, Keith goes on to share his insights on the debate of gold versus bitcoin. He emphasizes that gold's stability and millennia-long history of wealth preservation give it an edge over any cryptocurrency. While bitcoin has seen speculation and massive price fluctuations, gold's enduring stability makes it an attractive choice for conservative savers, even in times of economic uncertainty. (40:53)
Mon, 21 Aug 2023 - 1h 06min - 325 - Uncovering a Once-in-a-Lifetime Shift in Farmland Investing
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Artem Milinchuk to the show. He's the founder and Head of Strategy for FarmTogether. First, Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing the last CPI and PPI reports. While the CPI reading came in at 3.2% inflation, certain components within the CPI are much higher. Inflation is still here, and now it's just a matter of what direction it goes and what the Federal Reserve does next. (00:00)
Next, Artem joins the conversation to share the benefits of farmland investments. Farmland boasts comparatively lower volatility than stocks, real estate, gold, and other asset classes. Artem highlights that the charm of farmland lies not only in its resilience during inflationary and recessionary periods but also in its capacity to diversify portfolios. (16:15)
The discussion shifts to the impact of elevated prices and interest rates on farmland investments. Artem provides insights into the broader farmland market, revealing that a significant majority (98%) of farmland is currently family-owned. He anticipates substantial changes in ownership over the next two decades, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture projecting a transformation of up to two-thirds of farmland. (24:00)
Artem shares his extensive experience investing in farmland on behalf of others since 1992, achieving impressive returns of approximately 10.5%. He concludes by drawing a noteworthy comparison between farmland investing and U.S. Treasuries, highlighting farmland's potential as a robust hedge against inflation. (44:57)
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Mon, 14 Aug 2023 - 58min - 324 - Gold Is Thriving, but Silver Needs a Recession
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Patrick Yip, director of business development at the American Precious Metals Exchange ("APMEX"). Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing the latest news surrounding their skepticism of the U.S.'s credit downgrade and discuss the recent jobs report and the implications of unemployment levels reaching a historic low. (00:43)
Then, Patrick joins the conversation to talk about the silver and gold markets and their respective prices. He notes that there's almost a lack of interest in precious metals right now, which has led to them being undervalued. Patrick believes that a recession would give them the chance to appreciate significantly in the coming years. (19:40)
With regards to the role of the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency, Patrick raises concerns about the dollar being weaponized for political agendas. This would prompt investors to seek refuge in gold and silver. Yip also delves into the nuances of choosing between coins, bars, and rounds in the precious metals market. And he offers practical advice for investors based on their individual preferences and investment goals. (38:46)
Then, Dan asks Patrick about the idea of minting a trillion-dollar platinum coin as a way to avert the debt ceiling... To hear Patrick's opinion on whether this proposal would work and what would happen to the price of precious metals if the government were to mint such a coin, check out today's podcast. (52:40)
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Mon, 07 Aug 2023 - 1h 03min - 323 - Debunking Fears and Misconceptions About Nuclear Energy With Doomberg
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by an anonymous guest referred to as "Doomberg." Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates. Corey mentions that Chairman Jerome Powell let some "subliminal thoughts" on inflation slip, hinting at what the Fed may be planning from here. (00:00)
Next, Doomberg joins the conversation to discuss why he and the rest of his team have decided to remain anonymous and shares his thoughts on Ontario's energy-strategy document and how the province is far ahead of the U.S. in its energy journey. (19:15)
Doomberg then discusses his take on climate change. He mentions that he's bullish on the human spirit and the ingenuity required to fight climate change. That said, he believes it's unfair to minimize the impact that modern human development has had on the environment. The state of industrial pollution, for example – especially in China – is a real-world scandal. (29:50)
Finally, Doomberg concludes with the prospect of a gold-backed currency and nuclear power. He and Dan discuss the ongoing anti-nuclear propaganda and the need to reevaluate the public perception of nuclear energy as a viable and safe solution to climate change. (45:53)
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Mon, 31 Jul 2023 - 1h 07min - 322 - The Achilles Heel of the Green-Energy Transition
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, investing veteran Rick Rule returns to the show. Rick is president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and a director at Sprott. He joins Dan and Corey to talk about the trend of global electrification and all things copper. (00:00)
Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing a crucial topic – the global net-zero-emissions target set by institutions, corporations, and governments. To achieve this ambitious goal by 2050, there will need to be an increase in green-power generation and electric vehicles. A significant rise in demand for this essential resource would lead to higher copper prices. (00:48)
Rick then joins the conversation to share his profound insights on the electrification of the world. The copper talk continues, with Rick passionately emphasizing that achieving net-zero emissions is an inevitable and vital goal. Dan raises pertinent questions about copper production's inability to keep pace with demand. (22:07)
Then, Dan and Rick cover the two major copper-producing nations that have been at the forefront of meeting this demand... Chile and Peru. While Chile's mining industry is threatened by shifting political priorities, Peru grapples with the influence of nongovernmental organizations. (43:18)
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Mon, 24 Jul 2023 - 1h 03min - 321 - The Impending Decline of U.S. Dollar Dominance in an Era of Multipolarity
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome frequent guest Marko Papic back to the show. Marko is a partner and chief strategist for asset-management platform Clocktower. Together, they tackle the shifting landscape of globalization, the dominance of the U.S. dollar, and investment opportunities in emerging markets. (00:00)
Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing the perplexing issue of the U.S. government "losing money while making money." They explore the implications of this inefficiency and its connection to the broader topics of inflation, recent Consumer Price Index data, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policies. (00:41)
Then, Marko joins the conversation to share his thoughts on multipolarity, or the distribution of power among several countries. Despite the rise of emerging markets and the global shift toward multipolarity, the U.S. dollar remains the predominant currency worldwide. Marko believes "the dollar will continue to have stickiness as a predominant currency," but he predicts a steep decline within the next year." (28:07)
Marko concludes by highlighting that investors can still profit by adopting a longer-term perspective that considers geopolitical and macroeconomic trends. He suggests keeping an eye on economies with favorable prospects, such as Indonesia's control of the Nickel market, Vietnam's vital role in global trade, and Mexico's refrain from fiscal stimulus packages. (45:57)
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Mon, 17 Jul 2023 - 57min - 320 - Emerging Markets 101: How to Invest Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Paul Podolsky. Paul previously worked as a strategist for Bridgewater Associates – one of the largest hedge funds in the world – for nearly 16 years. Now, he's the founder of Still Press, an author, and the host of the Things I Didn't Learn in School podcast.
But first, Dan and Corey discuss Ben & Jerry's recent tweet about "stolen Indigenous land," as well as the broader implications for businesses engaging in political activism. They explore the potential impact on market performance, consumer behavior, and the overall perception of companies like Target, Disney, Starbucks, Unilever, and Anheuser-Busch. (00:41)
Paul then joins the conversation to highlight his experiences at Bridgewater under billionaire investor Ray Dalio and share insights on the second-largest economy in the world, China. He says Chinese assets can offer positive expected returns and low correlation with other assets, which makes them attractive today. However, Paul draws from his experience with trading Russian assets to inform his views on China. He emphasizes that the future of both China and Russia remains uncertain. (19:40)
Lastly, Paul shares his insights on another potentially lucrative emerging market... Chile. Despite the challenges Chile faces due to political fluctuations, Paul explains how it remains an investable option for those seeking diversification. As global economic debates continue, it's crucial for investors to carefully evaluate the potential returns and risks of investing in emerging markets. (45:27)
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Mon, 10 Jul 2023 - 1h 03min - 319 - 'The Wise-Man Problem' – Low-Hanging Fruit Individual Investors Overlook
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by equity analyst John Zolidis. He's the president and founder of Quo Vadis Capital, which provides research for both professional money managers and individual investors, specifically in the retail and restaurant sectors.
Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing what they're bullish on – what they like, what they want to buy, and what they're buying. Corey expresses optimism in U.S. stocks, citing their recovery and global financial leadership as "the best house in a bad neighborhood." Dan shares his optimism for the housing sector, highlighting historically low inventory levels. (00:41)
Then, John joins the conversation to share his perspective on the possibility of beating the market and overcoming cognitive biases in investing. He brings up "the wise-man problem," referring to the cognitive bias that arises from an individual's belief that they have seen and understood all market situations based on past experiences. (19:41)
John challenges the belief that outperforming the market is impossible, citing the importance of understanding companies and long-term prospects. John emphasizes the need to align investments with financial goals and avoid short-term performance targets influenced by media hype. He believes a longer-term perspective is the key to gaining an edge as an individual investor. (39:23)
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Wed, 05 Jul 2023 - 59min - 318 - Midyear Market Outlook: What Our Mailbag Tells Us About Investor Sentiment
In this special mailbag episode of Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey delve into a wide range of questions from their audience. They shed light on prevailing market sentiments and offer valuable advice. But first, Dan debriefs Corey on his recent trip to Vail, Colorado for the VALUEx conference
This is a valuable conversation on investor sentiment that you won't want to miss. And it even provides insights that will help guide investors seeking to navigate the ever-changing financial landscape. Keep sending your thoughts and questions to feedback@investorhour.com and let us know what's on your mind!
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Mon, 26 Jun 2023 - 46min - 317 - How Constraints Drive Success in Value Investing
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by frequent guest Vitaliy Katsenelson. He's the CEO and chief investment officer at portfolio-management company Investment Management Associates, or IMA. In his fourth appearance on the Investor Hour podcast, Vitaliy returns to discuss his approach to being a constraint investor and discovering undervalued companies for all his clients.
But first, Dan and Corey talk about the recent Federal Reserve meeting, the implications of the central bank's words and actions, and where they think the Fed will go from here. Dan and Corey both believe that in the near term, the market is telling us that we're coming to the end of the rate-hike cycle but "people just aren't buying it" yet. Since the stock market has been doing well these past couple of weeks, Dan thinks the Fed probably won't start cutting rates anytime soon. And because the unemployment rate is still near a record low, Dan and Corey argue that it's the only logical place to look when making a case for rate cuts.
Vitaliy then joins the conversation to share the origin of his vacation-style conference, VALUEx Vail... the screening process for attendees... and what Dan should expect while attending this week in Vail, Colorado. Afterward, they discuss the importance of constraints in life and how that relates to investing. Dan says...
"People are really creative when they are backed into a corner and they have a lot of constraints on them."
Tue, 20 Jun 2023 - 59min - 316 - 'Plan The Trade, Trade The Plan' – How Optimism Shapes Successful Investing
In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour podcast, Dan and Corey are joined by Enrique Abeyta, an analyst from Empire Financial Research. Enrique shares his insights on investing and offers stock advice through his newsletters. The discussion starts with the recent lawsuits filed by the SEC against Coinbase Global and Binance for offering securities without proper licenses. Enrique then talks about his mosaic approach to investing, which involves analyzing various data points and perspectives. The conversation also covers the impact of technology on asset management and newsletters, the value versus growth investing debate, and Enrique's views on the banking industry.
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Mon, 12 Jun 2023 - 1h 00min - 315 - How to Navigate Speculative Resource Investing With Jeff Phillips
In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Jeff Phillips. He's a well-respected expert in the resource and mining industries and president of Global Market Development. With more than 20 years of experience consulting with Fortune 500 companies and government agencies, Jeff is one of the most trusted names in his field. Now, he's giving us an exclusive look into his "highly speculative" approach to investing. But first, Dan and Corey discuss the recent impressive U.S. employment numbers and their potential impact on interest rates. According to Dan, "It ain't looking like a recession anymore." After that, Dan and Corey examine the burgeoning artificial-intelligence ("AI") bubble – highlighting Nvidia's recent run, its continued growth, and its varying effects on different professions and sectors.
Then, Jeff joins the conversation to talk about his unique approach to speculation. Jeff shares his belief that the financial markets are facing a significant problem and are on the verge of a substantial decline in asset valuations. However, amid this cautionary note, Jeff highlights the potential for exceptional growth in speculative natural resource stocks. He thinks they're a promising investment in an otherwise uncertain market landscape...
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Tue, 06 Jun 2023 - 1h 08min - 314 - 'Attackers and Defenders' Are Key to Building a Strong Portfolio
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Alfonso "Alf" Peccatiello. He's the founder and CEO of disruptive investment-strategy firm The Macro Compass. His company provides educational macroeconomic analysis and professional portfolio strategies to bridge the gap between Wall Street and everyday investors. And Alf brings those same skills to the podcast by simplifying complex topics for our listeners.
Dan and Corey begin the episode by talking about chipmaker Nvidia. Its recent earnings report sent shares soaring and prompted one of the biggest moves in U.S. stock market history by market cap. Part of the reason for that big move was the company projecting a huge increase in sales next quarter. The chips that Nvidia makes will help with the coming artificial-intelligence revolution, so investors are buying in hand over fist. However, Dan and Corey question whether the company is worth these high valuations.
Alf then joins the conversation to discuss the debt ceiling. He predicts that U.S. politicians will probably reach a deal to raise it... but he also analyzes the magnitude and severity of damage to economic growth that a default would bring. Alf further explains that he believes Republican Party members are using time to their advantage to try to get the best out of the deal, since the Democrats took more time to start negotiations. Regardless of what happens with the deal, he warns... Investors must always have attackers and defenders in their portfolio.
Next, Alf mentions the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes and how those have caused U.S. stocks to remain relatively expensive. But even with this poor outlook for U.S. stocks, he points out that you can still find "attackers" in Japanese stocks. With the country's nominal growth picking up, wages rising over 4%, and the new Bank of Japan governor not rushing to raise interest rates, Japanese equities are reasonably valued and poised for growth.
Lastly, Alf and Dan revisit March's banking meltdown. Alf notes that loose regulations led to terrible risk management, but he argues that the rest of the banking industry will not be affected much. Now, though, the second part of the problem is exposure to commercial real estate, credit quality, and the asset quality of bank loans. In short, the banking system is deteriorating. Tune in to hear Alf and Dan's take on what's coming next so you can prepare yourself for this slow-moving train wreck.
Tue, 30 May 2023 - 1h 11min - 313 - How to Pick the Winners and Avoid the Losers in Gold Stocks
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by fellow Stansberry Research analysts John Doody and Garrett Goggin. John, an ex-economics professor, started Gold Stock Analyst (GSA) in 1994 and even popularized the metric "market cap per ounce." Meanwhile, Garrett is a chartered financial analyst and certified market technician who started his career on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange before ultimately joining GSA in 2010. Dan and Corey start off by talking about how economists have continued to call for a recession in the coming three months... for the past nine months. With consumer spending growing, gross domestic product ("GDP") rising, and the housing market looking better, the two discuss the possibility that we're already in a recession... and question whether we need to reevaluate the criteria for a recession. Dan notes that despite two consecutive quarters of negative GDP – the textbook definition of a recession – an official recession has still not been called. John and Garrett then join the conversation to discuss the recent run on banks. Garrett notes that the federal-funds rate is too high. With the economy slowing down, he says that the Federal Reserve will have to start cutting rates soon. Plus, if the government raises the debt ceiling, the Fed's balance sheet will continue higher. This will be a good thing for gold. As Garrett explains... A banker's best friend is a shareholder's worst enemy. The conversation then shifts to John's gold stock portfolio. He mentions that he only looks for companies that have already completed a feasibility study or are already in the production stage. John points out that the gold companies in his portfolio are all at different stages in the process. He also warns that there could be a two- to three-year period after the feasibility study where nothing exciting happens to the stock. Adding to that, Garrett emphasizes that when looking at gold companies, it's imperative to analyze how the company is being managed. That way, you can make sure it's generating good shareholder value. Lastly, Garrett and John argue that royalty companies are structured to get lucky... by locking in costs. The companies do this so that as the price of gold rises, they can continue expanding. As long as one of its 100 mines does well, a royalty company will thrive. Royalty stocks certainly have their benefits in comparison with mining stocks. But as John and Garrett discuss, mining stocks are also extremely leveraged.
Tue, 30 May 2023 - 1h 04min - 312 - The Slow-Moving Reality of the Housing Cycle and Inflation Concerns With Bob Elliott
In the latest episode of Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Bob Elliott to the show. Bob is the co-founder, CEO, and chief information officer of Unlimited, a firm that uses machine learning to create products that replicate index returns. Bob drops in to share his valuable perspective on inflation intricacies and supply-chain issues.
But first, Dan and Corey address the unique challenges the housing market is facing right now... particularly how homeowners are holding on to their properties due to historically low mortgage rates. While advantageous for homeowners, this trend has reduced housing supply and subsequently driven prices upward.
Bob Elliott then joins the conversation to provide his insights on the current state of the Consumer Price Index. He highlights the underlying inflation in the economy, which is closely tied to wages and service prices, resulting in a stable inflation rate of 5%. He explains...
"Once we started to get a flattening out of oil prices... and used auto prices... those going from falling to flat has a positive pressure on inflation."
Bob also delves into the gradual nature of housing cycles and the dynamics of the housing market throughout and following the pandemic.
"That's the nature of these cycles... They don't progress rapidly. They aren't the kind of force that will drastically alter the Federal Reserve's outlook within the next three months."
Bob explains that numerous structural and tactical factors influence these cycles. However, as input costs decrease, construction activity is expected to increase, which will eventually stimulate economic growth.
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Mon, 15 May 2023 - 1h 04min - 311 - The 'Big Bottom' Looms - Why the Final Drawdown Could Be Near
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by Chris Igou. Chris is a fellow Stansberry Research analyst and the editor of DailyWealth Trader, a daily trading advisory. But first, Dan and Corey argue that banking regulations "hand the incumbents an advantage" and restrict competition. According to Dan, consolidation in the banking industry – like JPMorgan Chase's recent takeover of First Republic Bank – can create backstop and incentive issues. Dan also shares his belief that interest rates will remain higher than expected for longer, despite the market consensus for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Then, Chris joins the conversation to discuss his trading style and macroeconomic outlook for the market. He shares how the Fed's rate hikes are increasing the cost of borrowing and squeezing earnings, leading to smaller profit margins. Chris also notes that the S&P 500 Index's most significant drawdown in this current bear market has been 25%. That number is relatively normal for a bear market, since the average drop during a recession is typically around 40% from peak to trough. He explains... "We've got some time where credit is going to be tight and unemployment is still at 3.5%... Historically, you just don't bottom there." Finally, the trio analyzes previous false bear market rallies that would get investors excited and optimistic before hitting a sudden downturn. Chris warns that the same could happen this time around. He cites the bear markets of 2000, 2008, and 2020 as examples and shares that he expects more pain in the coming months based on historical patterns.
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Mon, 08 May 2023 - 59min - 310 - The Four Key Factors for Analyzing Fed Events Amid a Deepening Banking Crisis
This week's episode of Stanberry Investor Hour features John Netto, author of investing book The Global Macro Edge.
Dan and Corey start the episode by examining the recent failure of First Republic Bank – the second-largest U.S. bank failure to date – and its acquisition by JPMorgan Chase. They raise concerns about the ongoing banking crisis and the role the government plays in backing "too big to fail" banks. With three of the four largest bank failures in U.S. history happening in the past two months, there's growing uncertainty heading into this week's Federal Reserve meetings. Then, John joins the conversation and shares insights from his book, including the concept of how emotions act as the lubricant for decision-making. He says that traders often make the mistake of analyzing their success based solely on the results rather than how well they executed their process. To combat this phenomenon, John created the "Netto number." He explains how it can help investors recognize when their strategy begins to decay and how they can use it to maximize returns. The discussion then shifts to central banks and monetary policy, with John describing his four factors for analyzing Fed events. Based on his analysis, John argues that the Fed will not be cutting rates this year and will instead be keeping them near a 4.5% to 5.5% pace until the second quarter of 2024... "Because we have interest rates at 7%, it's going to take a long time for this housing inventory to roll over." He asserts that if we go into a recession, it will be a very mild one. You can hear his full reasoning in today's Investor Hour.
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Mon, 01 May 2023 - 1h 07min - 309 - 'The Next Bankruptcy Wave is Just Starting'
In this week's Stanberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes fellow Stansberry Research analyst Mike DiBiase to the show. Mike came to Stansberry in 2014 after spending nearly two decades in finance and accounting. He now serves as our bond-investment expert.
To kick the episode off, Dan and Corey discuss the latest home-sales data, how these numbers compare with the previous year's, and what this means for the economy going forward. Dan emphasizes that the housing market is a crucial indicator of a looming recession, and he questions the potential impact of inflation when the market collapses...
"Yes, we're going to cry uncle at some point... when the market [does], where will inflation be?"
Mike then joins the conversation, and the three delve deeper into recessionary trends and post-pandemic inflation. Mike explains why the current inflationary period reminds him of a famous quote by economist Milton Friedman – "Money-printing is like alcoholism" – and that the bad effects have to come first to cure inflation.
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Mon, 24 Apr 2023 - 1h 03min - 308 - Liquidity is Collapsing and the Fed's Still Taking Away the Punch Bowl'
In this week's episode of the Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes back Mike McGlone, a Senior Commodities strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence with over 25 years of experience in the industry. Mike shares his insights on the direction of US agriculture, the possibility of liquidity collapsing, and the current bear market rally.
Prior to the interview, Dan and Corey discuss the escalating tensions between Taiwan and China. They mention how due to these geopolitical concerns, Warren Buffet recently sold 86% of his position in Taiwan Semiconductor Company (NYSE: TSM). However, Buffet's move into Japanese investments, which he currently owns about 7.4% of, is consistent with his belief in America's resilience. Dan notes that he won't necessarily follow Buffet's lead, but it's still interesting to see what he does.
“This could be the greatest economic reset of our lifetime.”
Then, Dan introduces Mike, and the two break down how the S&P 500 and bond market both suffered significant corrections last year due to the Federal Reserve raising rates too much and too late. As we tilt towards a significant recession, and the Fed continues to tighten, time will show if bonds will be some of the best assets.
Mike and Dan then delve into various commodities, including natural gas, gold, and crude oil. They highlight how gold may become a more attractive investment option in the near future, with the stock market reaching its most expensive level compared to GDP, sales, and housing, and the Fed tightening into a deflationary period.
Finally, Mike highlights how electrification, de-carbonization, and digitalization are all bullish for copper, but it's not as easy to increase copper supplies as it used to be. With copper reaching an all-time high in 2022, it's a clear indication of where we're headed in the future.
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Mon, 17 Apr 2023 - 1h 02min - 307 - The Secret to Beating 'Mr. Market': A Lesson in Value Investing
In this episode of the Stansberry Investor Hour, Tobias Carlisle discusses the current investment landscape and how many value investors have shifted their focus to growth stocks.
Prior to the interview, Dan discusses the concept of "Mr. Market" versus the "smart money". He cites a quote from Benjamin Graham's book Security Analysis, where he states that the stock market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term. While this may be true for some companies, Dan suggests that there are many whose value doesn't change nearly as much as the stock market suggests, citing periods of sideways movement in the stock market as examples.
Then Dan and Tobias delve into the energy sector, noting the challenges of transitioning to EVs and solar. Tobias emphasizes the limitations of nuclear energy and the challenges of investing in the financial and banking sector. He prefers investing in businesses that are in a more broken-down state and cites coal companies as an example.
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Mon, 10 Apr 2023 - 57min - 306 - 'The Future Drives the Present' - Controlling Risk to Outperform Tomorrow's Markets
Dan and Corey delve into the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index and its latest release from last week. They discuss the significance of this development and how it could affect the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates.
The two also point out that recent behavior in the bond market suggests that the end of the Federal Reserve's rate-hike plans may be near. While this move may contribute to future CPI and PCE numbers, Dan and Corey are not entirely convinced that it will solve the other issues in the economy.
Then, Dan introduces Michael Harris, a renowned quantitative trader who is credited with developing the first program to identify anomalies in price action and generate automatic code for popular platforms. Michael is also a prolific author, having written four books on price recognition and his market analysis blog, Price Action Lab.
Michael explains his approach to trading and notes that while there are no barriers to entry in trading, the biggest challenge is maintaining discipline and effectively managing risk.
Michael goes on to express his surprise at the inability of most active managers to outperform the market and makes the case that as long as the US dollar remains the world's reserve currency, the US will continue to dominate in the technology sector.
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Mon, 03 Apr 2023 - 55min - 305 - Leveraging Opportunities in the Age of 24-Hour Financial News
Click here to sign up for Marc's latest event: https://www.chaikinevent.com
We're excited to welcome back Marc Chaikin, founder of Chaikin Analytics. In this episode, Marc and Dan delve into the ongoing banking crisis and explore why Marc views this "bear" market as a buying opportunity.
As an experienced investor, Marc understands the challenges of staying informed in today's complex fiscal and monetary landscape:
"If you're an investor, you've got to be looking for opportunities and it's a really trite saying, but there's a bull market somewhere."
He notes that we're currently experiencing a rolling run-up, with stocks beginning to bottom out and go into uptrends. Marc argues that labeling the market as a bull or bear is less important than seeking out investment opportunities.
Finally, he highlights the risks of assuming the market will continue to behave a certain way, and why investors need to focus on finding opportunities regardless of market conditions.
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Mon, 27 Mar 2023 - 1h 02min - 304 - The Real Culprit Behind the Banking Crisis
This week, a Stansberry Investor Hour listener-favorite returns to the show... Kevin Duffy, editor of The Coffee Can Portfolio newsletter and hedge-fund manager, is back. And on his mind is the spectacular, near-overnight collapse of banks. But the foundation of this month's banking fiasco was laid years ago.
He explains how it all started... how Silicon Valley banks had risky loan books balanced with less-risky U.S. Treasurys... how banks' assets tripled during the two years of pandemic-driven government stimulus... and how the bond bubble burst and set off a chain reaction.
Kevin also shares that the root of the problem comes from the U.S.'s fractional-reserve banking system and reliance on the Federal Reserve and leverage. A simple way to understand the problems with today's banks is to list the characteristics of an ideal hedge fund. When that list is inverted, it describes a modern-day fractional-reserve bank.
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Mon, 20 Mar 2023 - 1h 05min - 303 - 'Never Has the Fed Raised Rates Into a Recession'
Shockwaves from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank are rippling through markets – from stocks to oil and cryptocurrency. The Stansberry Investor Hour welcomes back legendary trader Todd "Bubba" Horwitz to warn about bank bailouts and his thoughts on "the absurdity" of the Federal Reserve.
Bubba tells Dan Ferris and Corey McLaughlin how he's trading soft commodities and mentions how it could be daunting for most investors. But for the brave who buy these assets at good prices, they're in for a reward:
"I think we're due for a big market across the board pretty much in all commodities, especially the consumable-goods commodities. Gold and silver, I think they're going to go higher but they're not consumable – they're going to be needed for money pretty soon."
Bubba also explains why the "Fed pivot" narrative is a myth... why the 10-year Treasury yield could run up to 6%... and why you should sometimes take a break from financial media, leaving listeners with his final words: "Don't let the day-to-day news get to you."
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Mon, 13 Mar 2023 - 56min - 302 - Our 300th Episode Mailbag Special, Plus the 'Godfather of Fundamental Indexing' Rob Arnott
This week, you'll get a glimpse of what goes on in the mind of a true innovator in financial strategy. Hailed by Dan as the "godfather of fundamental indexing," Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of the board of Research Affiliates, returns for another provocative interview.
As promised, Dan and his co-host Corey kick things off with a mailbag special to celebrate Stansberry Investor Hour's 300th episode. Thanks to listeners like you, we've collected quite a few e-mails. So today, the duo will tackle a couple of the burning questions you've sent us.
Another milestone in today's episode comes in the form of Research Affiliates' proprietary RAFI Fundamental Index ("RAFI") strategy, which is nearing its 20th anniversary. Rob shares some history about his pioneering work that's used by industry heavyweights like Charles Schwab and PIMCO.
Rob also warns against following the herd by explaining what happens when you mix availability bias and a bubble. And, with the help of monkeys, he shares how inherently flawed the traditional idea of weighting only by market cap can be... In a nod to economist Burton Malkiel – who once wrote how a blindfolded monkey throwing darts could outperform a fund manager – Rob and his colleagues simulated the monkey for one of their research papers...
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Mon, 06 Mar 2023 - 1h 11min - 301 - 'You Need Grit to Quit' – Knowing When to Walk Away With Annie Duke
We're eager to have former professional poker player, public speaker, and bestselling author Annie Duke on this week's episode to discuss her latest book, Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, teaches you how to be a smart quitter.
"Quitters never win, winners never quit." That's not true. Winners actually quit a lot. And it's in fact how they win. When you look at the best investors, they are so good at getting off the positions that aren't so worthwhile that they can then reinvest that capital into things that are worthwhile..."
Annie also discusses the psychology behind other common pitfalls for retail investors, like loss aversion, focusing on portfolio outliers, relying on intuition, and more. Today's episode is one you won't want to miss.
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00:00 Inflation status quo 5:08 Recession prospect 11:26 Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away 19:59 Winners and losers in stock picking 27:08 How does intuition play out in investing? 32:10 Checklist manifesto in investing 38:21 "Stick to the plan" 47:42 Psychological aspect of investing 51:00 Annie’s investment tips
Mon, 27 Feb 2023 - 1h 01min - 300 - Your Portfolio's Best Defense for an Uncertain 2023
Stansberry Venture Technology editor Dave Lashmet returns to the show. He's our go-to for anything and everything related to emerging technologies.
Whether it's the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war... more nuclear threats from North Korea... or the Chinese spy balloon fiasco... geopolitics has already become 2023's overarching theme. It's also why Dave is bullish on one corner of the market in particular...
"The simple thesis is that we don't know what 2023 will be like for investors – if it'll be a bear, a bull, or a sideways market. But what we do know is that the best way to play defense in 2023 is going to be to buy defense stocks."
Dave also shares one company's stock that is poised to soar thanks to its groundbreaking new stealth technology. And just like other defense stocks on Dave's radar, it has a "very, very, very long [tail]" and "monopolies [on technologies]." Plus, Dave also details exactly what he looks for when screening military tech stocks, along with his "secret decoder ring" for choosing pharmaceutical companies to invest in.
Tue, 21 Feb 2023 - 1h 10min - 299 - A Silver Exec's Top Advice on Precious Metals Investing
We're excited about this week's Stansberry Investor Hour show... Keith Neumeyer – the founder, president, and CEO of major Canadian mining company First Majestic Silver – shares what it takes to make a fortune in the industry.
As Keith explains, "The mining sector brings a huge amount of value to the human race" as many modern technologies rely on it, especially silver...
All the different technologies we started to adopt as a human race in the mid-'80s and beyond, I just put two and two together and I said, "Silver is the glue that holds everything together. Without silver, none of this is going to work."
Silver is crucial to modern society, and it can be highly rewarding... as long as you know what you're doing. Before signing off this week's podcast, Keith shares the top qualities novice investors should look for in a mining company. (Solid management is his top pick.) And he recommends not waiting too long to take profits or holding on for the elusive 10-bagger, saying...
These things will spike all of a sudden [...] The stock will go up 300%, 400%, 500%, which is fantastic. That's what the mining sector can do for you if your timing is right. But you have to be smart as an investor. If you're up 300%, you'd better be selling something. If you don't, you're an idiot. If you're up 500%, I would suggest you're out of the stock completely.
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Mon, 13 Feb 2023 - 1h 00min - 298 - The One Market Every Investor Should Add to Their Watchlist
The biggest growth story of 2023 has been three years in the making. And today's Stansberry Investor Hour guest is at the forefront of it all...
Commodity Supercycles editor Brian Tycangco is Stansberry Research's resident expert in the energy and natural resources space.
After being shuttered behind strict COVID-19 policies for the past three years, China is finally open for business with the global markets again. Its residents – with trillions of dollars socked away during those long years – are itching to travel and spend. And the country's high-value manufacturing sites are set to lead a global bull market in electric vehicles.
At the same time, Brian says we're seeing an increased U.S. manufacturing presence in labor markets like India, Indonesia, and Thailand – which means incredible investing opportunities across Southeast Asia.
Also on today's podcast, Brian urges investors to not be so easily scared off by sensational headlines from Western media... like the furor over Chinese President Xi Jinping's power move to extend his term of leadership or the concerns over the wealthiest citizens leaving the country – and taking their money with them.
Thanks to his residency in Asia (the Philippines, to be exact), Brian has gotten a firsthand look at the sentiment. He says, "Everything isn't as bad as it seems in China," and that most Chinese have a "back-to-business mentality."
Lastly, when it comes to adding this market to your portfolio, he says you still have to be practical...
You don't go all-in on China, but you don't also not have exposure to a place like this. There's always room for China in anyone's portfolio [...] It'd be crazy not to have exposure just because of geopolitics.
Mon, 06 Feb 2023 - 1h 10min - 297 - The 'Blind Spot' of All Asset Managers
This week, one of Dan's favorite guests returns for his fourth Stansberry Investor Hour appearance... Cullen Roche is the founder of portfolio-management firms Orcam Financial and Discipline Funds. He is also the author of two of the most widely circulated research papers in finance and a highly rated book named after his popular financial blog, Pragmatic Capitalism.
But first, Dan and Corey examine the biggest news events of the past week. And some have gotten a little too close for comfort to the extreme scenarios in the "Top 10 Potential Surprises for 2023" episode.
As for our guest's economic outlook, Cullen discusses why disinflation could be this year's theme... why it's too early to be picking bottoms in the "huge, slow-moving beast" of housing... and why he thinks the Federal Reserve is likely to hike rates a bit more before adopting a wait-and-see approach...
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Mon, 30 Jan 2023 - 1h 04min - 296 - Having the Tenacity as an Investor... No Matter the Climate
This week, we're thrilled to welcome a brand-new guest to the Stansberry Investor Hour... who happens to be the lead analyst for Stansberry Research's longest-running flagship publication: Alan Gula.
But first, Dan and his co-host Corey discuss the latest hot-button topics: Big Tech's sweeping wave of layoffs, why media coverage of the "debt-ceiling crisis" is just "pure noise," the "cat-and-mouse game" of the lag effects of Federal Reserve policy, and whether there could be an encore to last year's bond-market beatdown.
Speaking of distressed investments... today's guest had a front-row seat to the financial crisis, as he was working Barclays Investment Bank's distressed-debt desk when Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. Alan worked at some of Wall Street's biggest firms before joining Stansberry Research.
"I think that any good recommendation has a good macro tailwind. And cycles are crucial from a macro standpoint," says Alan.
But finding a winner requires more than just the right macroeconomic setup... As Alan states, it's one that "marries both the macro and the bottom-up fundamentals research." He dives deep into his bottom-up research process. And he also shares his No. 1 tip for successful investing.
Mon, 23 Jan 2023 - 1h 08min - 295 - 'Path Matters More Than Prediction' – Assessing the Market Landscape for a 2023 'Melt Up'
For today's episode of Stansberry Investor Hour, we've managed to reel in one of Dan's favorite Twitter personalities: Michael Gayed.
Michael is the brains behind The Lead-Lag Report, a long-term investment strategy newsletter.
According to Michael, "Path matters more than prediction, "... especially in the credit event and the market rally he sees possible in 2023. He relies on multiple indicators that "get ahead of highly volatile regime shifts in equities," and "when they [the indicators] all give you the same message, that's your tell."
Michael also breaks down the lumber-to-gold indicator for market moves... the fallacies in market timing and adapting to the market... the meaning behind his Twitter profile picture... and more.
Plus, you'll also hear Dan and Corey discuss how stock bulls pinning their hopes on a Fed pivot could be in for a disappointment and the latest in shenanigans from the duo's favorite dethroned crypto king.
Tue, 17 Jan 2023 - 1h 04min - 294 - How to Make Volatility Work for You in 2023
We're back to our regular Stansberry Investor Hour programming this week. And to kick off a new year of the show, we welcome Greg Diamond, editor of Ten Stock Trader.
A chartered market technician ("CMT") and Stansberry's resident expert in technical analysis, Greg has almost 20 years of experience in portfolio management and trading across every asset class you can think of. That's why he's the perfect fit for Ten Stock Trader – Stansberry's unique daily trading service in which Greg has nailed down multiple double- and triple-digit winners.
According to Greg, "2023 is going to be marked with incredible trading opportunities." He explains that one of the tools for navigating market volatility this year is being able to identify certain trends, and he also explains how technical analysis can help you do that. His strategy might be intimidating for most, but Greg encourages folks to keep an open mind and step out of the box...
This is a can't-miss episode. Check it out now.
Mon, 09 Jan 2023 - 1h 00min - 293 - Top 10 Potential Surprises for 2023
Today was the first trading day of the new year. So for this week's Stansberry Investor Hour episode, we thought it'd only be fitting to kick off 2023 with our fourth annual "Top 10 Potential Surprises" for investors.
Dan Ferris teams up with co-host Corey McLaughlin to bring you this year's list. Keeping with Dan's favorite adage of "Prepare, don't predict," these 10 surprises aren't predictions... They're possible events investors are unprepared for, based on current market conditions.
We won't spoil the surprises. But just to give you an idea, you'll hear about...
A bullish trend in two assets (including one Dan has never been a fan of) A commonly held view of today's bear market (and why it's a mistake) A specter of the 2021 stock market's most infamous names (and what it portends) A "blistering" market event (one that's guaranteed to "shock the hell out of everyone") A repeat of history (and an event Dan says is his "pet surprise" that he'll always have on his Top 10 list)Dan and Corey also ask each other the show-standard "Final Question," as today's special episode doesn't feature a guest (we'll return to our normal format next week). Plus, Dan reveals his four tips on how to best prepare for all that 2023 could unleash.
Wed, 04 Jan 2023 - 1h 06min - 292 - Our Mailbag Is Full, Thanks to You
This week's Stansberry Investor Hour episode features multiple guests...
And they're you, our listeners.
You see, we've been reading every e-mail and listening to every voicemail as they've come in. So for today's episode, we're opening the floodgates and sharing as many of your mailbag missives as we can cram into the show's hour.
We'll share your feedback – both good and bad – and questions that run the gamut from...
What is the most interesting buy-and-hold opportunity considering the crisis in Europe?
To...
Is Dan about to pass away?
Dan and his co-host Corey McLaughlin tackle all your comments and questions. You'll also hear...
Dan and Corey's picks for "the most interesting buy-and-hold opportunity" The duo's take on Big Tech's layoffs What made one listener say, "It's the equivalent of Dan getting married and not telling us who this new person is" Why Stansberry Research values conflicting opinions The next "sleeper" crisis that's lurking for the U.S., according to Corey Dan's vote for the "dumbest thing in the world" Market bearishness and what Dan thinks is "baloney" about itGet ready for today's special episode... As Dan says, "There's a lot to unpack."
Mon, 26 Dec 2022 - 1h 05min - 291 - 'You Need to Do the Arithmetic' with Rick Rule
This week's Stansberry Investor Hour guest is hailed by Dan Ferris as "the blueprint for a great guest." And co-host Corey McLaughlin says, "I get excited when I know he's going to be talking somewhere." Rick Rule is back for his fourth appearance.
For our newer listeners, Rick is one of the most accomplished natural resource investors on the planet. He began his financial career in the securities business in 1974 and has been principally involved with natural resource securities ever since. And over his long career, Rick has originated and participated in hundreds of debt and equity transactions with private, pre-public, and public companies. Even after a decade of serving as Sprott U.S. president and CEO, he's still spending his retirement years in the markets as founder and CEO of Rule Investment Media.
After opening with "the most entertaining [news] item" on their minds this week and an in-depth discussion on natural resource stocks, last week's latest Consumer Price Index report, Big Tech layoffs, and unemployment numbers... the duo chat with Rick about how to navigate the market these days.
The get-rich-quick fads – like meme stocks, cryptocurrencies, Cathie Wood's ARK universe, and SPACs (that's "special purpose acquisition companies") – are all "over and done," according to Dan. And success now requires some elbow grease...
All that easy money that was a narrative plus a chart that goes up to the right... it's all done. Now, you have to be a bargain hunter. You need to do the bottom-up work. As Rick Rule likes to say, "You need to do the arithmetic." And for people who do the arithmetic and do the work, this is their time to shine.
Rick touches on the fundamental analysis behind it all, untangling the complex interplay between the oil industry and politics for listeners. And Dan, who has been itching to know what Rick has to say about investing in natural resources, gets his answer...
There's a very good intermediate-term play in the oil and gas sector. Ironically, that's almost guaranteed by our government. [... ]
If you are willing to subject yourself to government stupidity both in the United States and Canada – which is to say, if you are willing to subject your purse to the twin threats of Biden and Trudeau – then the opportunities become truly staggering.
While Rick doesn't shy away from natural resource investments that carry "complex political risk" and require some arithmetic legwork, he understands listeners might hesitate to do the same. If you're eyeing oil and gas stocks, he suggests Big Oil could hold the key for some great intermediate-term returns.
So, whether it's hunting for the latest investment opportunities in uranium, natural gas, or precious metals... or poking fun at a few world leaders... Rick covers it all in this week's episode.
Mon, 19 Dec 2022 - 1h 08min - 290 - It's Destiny... and Doom
If anyone can make Dan exclaim, "If you don't get the hell away from your microphone, I'm going to keep you here all day," it's today's Stansberry Investor Hour guest: geopolitical strategist and New York Times bestselling author Peter Zeihan.
But first, Dan and his co-host Corey McLaughlin kick off the show by dissecting the conflicting – and confusing – news headlines on the direction of stocks and housing into 2023. The duo also evaluates ARK Investment Management founder Cathie Wood's latest Twitter ramblings (and why she sounds like a certain founder of a certain defunct cryptocurrency exchange).
Circling back to today's guest, Peter is also the founder of his own firm, Zeihan on Geopolitics, where he provides his expert analysis to clients that include Fortune 500 companies, trade associations, policymakers, and government agencies of all levels. His first three books – The Absent Superpower, The Accidental Superpower, and Disunited Nations – have been recommended by U.S. Senator Mitt Romney, political scientist Ian Bremmer, and CNN anchor Fareed Zakaria. His fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization, was published in June 2022 and is a New York Times bestseller.
And in this week's episode, he and Dan start by diving into the topic of deglobalization. Peter says the pace of deglobalization has accelerated since the start of the current decade – fueled by declining birth rates and an aging population. Additional kindling has come in the form of the COVID-19 pandemic, Chinese President Xi Jinping's narcissistic "cult of personality," and the Russia-Ukraine war. Global economies are in for some grim times... And as Peter puts it, "We are looking at the end of the world that we understand – probably in the next 36 months."
Mon, 12 Dec 2022 - 1h 01min - 289 - The Smoke Bubble Goes 'Pop'
We're kicking off this week with a special Stansberry Investor Hour episode on all things cryptocurrency... and it's a roundtable talk. Dan Ferris and co-host Corey McLaughlin sit down with the perfect guest for today's show: Stansberry's in-house crypto guru Eric Wade.
Eric is the editor of Crypto Capital, Crypto Cashflow, and the Stansberry Innovations Report at Stansberry Research. He got his start in cryptos by mining bitcoin and Ethereum and quickly moved on to building and programming his own miners... before going on to rack up big gains in crypto investments.
Despite the drama the FTX crash has caused, Eric says there's something afoot right now that's "much bigger news in the long run." As for the rest of this week's roundtable, Dan, Eric, and Corey discuss the future of crypto regulations... how "Brazil is the middle-class taxpayer of America"... and some challenging questions on bitcoin as a currency (posed by the ever-skeptical Dan).
Plus, the trio examines last week's New York Times interview with disgraced founder Sam "I've Had a Really Bad Month" Bankman-Fried – one that was equal parts bizarre, awkward, and, as Corey describes, riveting.
Mon, 05 Dec 2022 - 50min - 288 - 'Win... By Not Losing'
Even though stocks finished the week higher, investors have several new reasons to snap out of the holiday-weekend lull as economic and market uncertainties still loom ahead... like the geopolitical risks surrounding Taiwan's elections, a stateside natural disaster, and the latest in struggling world economies. But, as Dan says, instead of worrying about how the world's problems will be solved, you should focus on ensuring the best defense for your portfolio. That's why he has brought on an expert in risk management, James St. Aubin, the chief investment officer of Sierra Investment Management.
Mon, 28 Nov 2022 - 59min - 287 - Performing a 'Corporate Autopsy'
This week's Stansberry Investor Hour episode features one of the most accomplished financial journalists today. He's a returning guest, and his latest book couldn't have come out at a better time...
But first, Dan and Stansberry Digest editor Corey McLaughlin start off the episode's "opening rant" by taking on a recent headline-maker: the FTX debacle. The world is watching rapt as global authorities comb through the wreckage left by the collapse of this prominent cryptocurrency exchange... only to discover that "it's worse than we initially thought."
Among other "scandals and wonderful things that crashed and burned," as Dan puts it, no one can forget the shocking downfall of another market monolith: General Electric (GE). This company gave us life-changing innovations like the light bulb, radio broadcasts, fluorescent lamps, X-ray machines, jet engines, and more... before it went into a dramatic tailspin starting two decades ago.
That's why today, award-winning author William D. Cohan joins us for his second appearance to cover this spectacular corporate meltdown in depth. His latest book, Power Failure: The Rise and Fall of an American Icon, features rare interviews with key figures from GE (like former CEO Jack Welch). Published just a week ago, it has already drawn scores of praise.
William's prolific career includes several other books – three of which are New York Times bestsellers – and writings for numerous financial publications like Fortune, Barron's, and the Financial Times, to name a few. Plus, he has 17 years of experience in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) banking at some of Wall Street's biggest firms like Lazard, Merrill Lynch, and JPMorgan Chase.
Dan picks William's brain about the writing process for his book...
There's a dead body on the floor, and how did it get there? I'm doing the autopsy. I'm doing a corporate autopsy. How did GE go from being the valuable, most respected company in the world to irrelevant, being broken up, being a fraction of both what it was worth and the respect people had for it?
The two discuss GE's beleaguered history... and then William shares his No. 1 qualitative factor in fundamental analysis that investors should always consider while researching a stock.
Mon, 21 Nov 2022 - 56min - 286 - 'Trade a Lot... or Don't Trade at All'
This week, Stansberry Investor Hour listeners are in for a treat... Dan has brought back Empire Financial Research's own (and listener favorite) Enrique Abeyta, editor of Empire Elite Trader, a short-term trading service that draws from a pool of mid- to large-cap stocks.
Dan and Enrique launch into a spirited discussion about the belief that a stock's value directly correlates to the company's value. And Enrique warns about the danger of believing that this is 100% true...
He explains what Dan calls "a more inclusive, superior mental model for someone who wants to trade stocks for less than five years"... and discusses how sentiment and positioning matter more for stocks over the short term, with fundamentals and macroeconomics becoming the main drivers over the long term.
Enrique also explains the power of "positive psychology" and keeping a disciplined approach for investing success. Plus, he reminds listeners that there's a silver lining in rough markets like today's and that these are truths rooted in history...
Mon, 14 Nov 2022 - 1h 04min - 285 - The Bulls... the Bears... and the B.S.
Last month, your Stansberry Investor Hour host and Extreme Value editor Dan presented at the 20th annual Stansberry Conference alongside dozens of exceptional speakers. And today, he's giving his listeners a special peek into one of the panels he participated in with fellow editors.
This wasn't your typical roundtable discussion... Instead, moderator and Stansberry Research's Director of Research Matt Weinschenk had gathered some of Stansberry's "more outspoken and colorful personalities" for a lively game of "Bull, Bear, or B.S."
Dan is joined by his colleagues: the Retirement franchise's Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig, Crypto Capital and Crypto Cashflow's Eric Wade, and Matt McCall of The McCall Report and Matt McCall's MegaTrend Investor. The four must each choose whether they're bullish or bearish – or calling B.S. – on some of the most controversial topics in finance today.
They also share their viewpoints on the current stock market valuation in terms of the CAPE Shiller P/E (that's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings) ratio. You'll also hear each editor's take on the future of the housing market, consumer spending, energy stocks, bitcoin, and the metaverse – including Dan's hot take on well-known companies like gaming pioneer Atari grabbing up virtual real estate...
You can also click here to watch a video of the panel on YouTube.
Tue, 08 Nov 2022 - 1h 09min - 284 - Recession in 2023 Is a 'Done Deal'
In this week's episode, Dan welcomes back four-time Stansberry Investor Hour veteran Marko Papic.
Currently, the geopolitics and macroeconomics specialist serves as a partner and the chief strategist of asset manager Clocktower Group. Before that, Marko was the senior vice president and chief strategist on geopolitical strategy at global investment research firm BCA Research for nearly a decade. He has also worked at Stratfor, one of the world's top geopolitical-intelligence platforms.
Marko last joined us in late January, shortly before the Russia-Ukraine war exploded. Today, he's turning his attention to someone "much more relevant and powerful than Vlad[imir Putin]"... chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell.
We realize the topic of our central bank's next steps might seem worn out. After all, it has been splashed across the top news headlines daily for most of 2022. But the Fed's actions are massively influencing the global financial system right now. As Marko says...
Literally everything that is going on in the world is kind of irrelevant if J. Powell continues to be very hawkish.
When the Fed decides it has had enough, everything else can start mattering again. Until then, it's really just all about them.
Marko explains the Fed setup that could set off "the most calamitous recession in the history of the United States," and he shares his preferred indicators for a recession.
He also discusses the Paul Volcker versus Arthur Burns debate... two former Fed chairmen who defined their careers by tackling inflation. Will Powell follow in Burns' dovish footsteps or take a more uncompromising stance like Volcker did?
Finally, Marko highlights a future threat to the markets: the 2024 presidential election. As for which side he's on, he elicits some chuckles from Dan with his candor...
I don't care, right or left... I bathe myself in nihilist indifference. My job is to forecast. It doesn't matter.
Mon, 31 Oct 2022 - 1h 02min - 283 - 'It's a Big Macro Moment'
We're excited to have a brand-new guest for this week's Stansberry Investor Hour episode. And Dan has long admired him for his keen macroeconomic insights...
David Cervantes, the founder of New York's Pine Brook Capital Management, joins us today. Before establishing his firm in 2015, David already had roughly two decades of experience in the financial industry with Wall Street heavyweights like Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, UBS, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley.
Given the carnage in the markets, an uptick in inflation and volatility, and sky-high mortgage rates, Dan says, "We're on another planet versus a year ago." It's a big moment for macroeconomics... and that's exactly why Dan brought David on this week. He shares his expertise in understanding and explaining large-scale economic factors and gives his take on what's next for the markets.
David also covers the debate between a cyclical versus secular bear market, the Federal Reserve's No. 1 fear, and whether he's in the soft-landing camp. As for his take on the future, it's one heavily colored by the Fed's true nature...
Mon, 24 Oct 2022 - 1h 08min - 282 - This Intrepid Explorer of the Markets Is Back
This week, we've brought back Stansberry Venture Technology editor Dave Lashmet.
Dave mines the markets for lucrative opportunities in publicly traded, small-cap companies. A typical "diamond in the rough" might pioneer a revolutionary new drug or technology. These early-stage innovators can potentially change the world for the better – and rake in outsized gains for investors. And the best part about investing in these kinds of companies lies in their resilience to bear markets like today's...
Dave rejoins us today with a special look into some of the most promising new trends in the biotech space. You'll hear about a leader in robotic surgery... cutting-edge radiation therapy that Dave has been tracking for several years... new breakthroughs in cancer treatment... and the true story – one that leaves Dan momentarily speechless – of a man who overcame life-changing, traumatic injuries to become a crusader for patient rights.
Mon, 17 Oct 2022 - 1h 10min - 281 - 'Now Is Not the Time to Be a Hero'
We're excited to share today's guest's take on the markets – especially following his April 2020 appearance on the show when the market was clawing its way back up from its March 23 bottom.
This week, Dan welcomes back Mitchel Krause to Stansberry Investor Hour. Mitchel is the managing principal, chief commercial officer, and founder of Other Side Asset Management, an investment firm focused on capital preservation, risk management, and transparency. A 20-plus-year veteran of the financial services industry, he has served as first vice president at Stifel and Ryan Beck & Co.
Mitchel was last on the show in April 2020... not long before Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell admitted the central bank had "crossed a lot of red lines" with its aggressive emergency measures during the pandemic. Today, Mitchel says, "Every time I look, the data is different and it looks worse"... from bubbles popping in crypto, housing, equities, and U.S. Treasurys to the negative wealth effects of consumer spending tanking and inventories rising. And he's wondering just what the Fed might do next...
You're seeing it in all the data, and yet Wall Street's estimates haven't come down nearly enough for Q4 or Q1 of next year. So this will continue for probably the next three-plus quarters. [...]
We're probably closer to still a top than watching this all bottom out. The question becomes what red lines are crossed in order to try to possibly save this. That's the risk every central banker essentially tries to plan something... We'll pivot if we need to pivot from our positions.
Mitchel also believes we're currently in a "disinflationary investing regime." He says you should analyze "how the markets are looking at things" rather than relying on backward-looking metrics like the Fed-favorite Consumer Price Index. And instead of readily believing the headlines, he urges listeners to demand more evidence, more data, and do their own research.
Furthermore, Mitchel says you should "prepare yourself for another two or three quarters of what you've just seen" and make capital preservation your No. 1 goal right now. He also warns against falling into the trap of trying to time the market bottom. Lastly, Dan picks Mitchel's brain about positioning, especially since he "has never talked to anyone holding 70%-plus cash."
Mon, 10 Oct 2022 - 1h 03min - 280 - How to Stay Invested and Ride the Bear
When we first spoke with Simeon last year, the bull market was raging. Stocks were on a tear, with the S&P 500 Index hitting high after high. Things are vastly different today...
This time around, Simeon shares a couple of views on the U.S. economy from a macroeconomic perspective... including his take on interest rates, inflation, and some critical U.S. Federal Reserve policies that the media isn't talking about.
Mon, 03 Oct 2022 - 1h 02min - 279 - 'Nothing Is Written'... Survive in Advance
Today's Stansberry Investor Hour guest is the man behind a theory that Dan says "scares the crap out of me when I think of foreign markets"...
We're thrilled to have Brent Johnson, the creator of the famous "dollar milkshake theory," on this week's episode.
A seasoned Wall Street veteran with decades of experience in finance and money management, Brent is currently the CEO of Puerto Rico-based Santiago Capital, a wealth management firm focusing on macroeconomic trends.
Brent says most folks who have read or heard about his dollar milkshake theory think it's just about the U.S. dollar going higher. But he says there's more to this narrative... He explains how the Federal Reserve's switch to quantitative tightening is like a straw sucking up liquidity from markets worldwide – strengthening the dollar. And it's a story that he says is playing out right now, with a soaring greenback and other currencies in a tailspin...
After the global financial crisis, governments and monetary authorities around the world were forced to provide incredible amounts of liquidity... They created this big pool of liquidity, and they kept doubling down on it and doubling down on it...
The world mixed this big milkshake of liquidity and capital that needs to go somewhere. But as we get further into this, it's going to cause a global sovereign debt crisis because the debts have just gotten too big. A lot of that capital is going to flow into the U.S. dollar – or U.S. dollar assets – and deprive that liquidity to the rest of the world.
As the dollar gets stronger, that attracts more capital and it also puts more pressure on the rest of the world – which makes the U.S. even look more attractive on a relative basis and perpetuates more capital flows. The U.S. dollar is going to "drink the world's milkshake."
With another clever analogy, Brent also explains just how much power the buck lends to America. There's a "rigged" poker game playing out where the U.S. has the upper hand – and it has the "biggest stack at the table" with its currency. If any of the other countries "wins a big hand and tries to leave," Uncle Sam's "guards" at the door – or the dollar's privilege as the world's reserve currency – are ready to rob them of their profits. However, he says that the greenback could eventually plummet and end up in the same trouble that other currencies are undergoing... ultimately leaving gold as the "last man standing" at the table.
Brent also shares which of his favorite movies served as the inspiration for his theory. And his takeaway for surviving this challenging economic environment should resonate with longtime Investor Hour listeners... It's all about preparing for even the most unthinkable outcomes and building a well-diversified portfolio – or, as Dan always says, "Prepare, don't predict." And this time, Brent's cinematic muse is Lawrence of Arabia...
Be prepared. Nothing is certain. "Nothing is written." Any of these ideas that you have that you think are absolutely foolproof, I would throw them in the trash can. Just open your eyes. Be ready for anything.
Mon, 26 Sep 2022 - 58min - 278 - A 'Not-So-Secret Weapon' in Finance
It has been just over two years since his last Stansberry Investor Hour appearance...
So today, we're honored to have Professor Joel Litman, Altimetry's chief investment strategist and founder, back on the show.
Joel's resume boasts top honors and achievements in finance and education. He's the president and CEO of Valens Research, chair of the Uniform Adjusted Financial Reporting Standards (or "Uniform Accounting") Advisory Council, a member of the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners, a certified public accountant, and a board member of a leading brokerage firm in Asia.
He's also a professor at Hult International Business School's top-ranked international MBA program and has taught at business schools worldwide – like Harvard Business School, the London Business School, and Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance.
Joel's uncanny intuition is well-known in the world of finance... He called the 2008 crash and even accurately timed 2020's market bottom. And he starts today's episode by sharing one of his tools for success...
Understanding corporate credit and national country credit is the canary in the coal mine of any major equity bear market in history...
You always see corporate credit crises at the beginning of any massive long-term bear market.
Each month, Joel and his team apply Uniform Accounting to fix thousands of errors in companies' financial statements. This proprietary analysis gives investors the real story behind a company... and a clearer picture of its true profitability.
Joel's talent and passion for teaching shine as he breaks down the complicated topic of earnings reports' accounting standards. Plus, he and Dan discuss the current state of U.S. corporate credit, searching for the "perfect stock," the future of the dollar, and more.
Mon, 19 Sep 2022 - 1h 13min - 277 - How To Gain an Analytical and Behavioral Edge in Investing
For this week's Investor Hour, we're proud to bring you Jim Osman, founder and chief vision officer of consulting group The Edge.
A 30-year veteran of the markets and portfolio management, Jim founded The Edge in 2005. Currently headquartered in New York City and his native country of England, the firm provides actionable (and market-beating) research to institutional and individual investors. In addition to overseeing The Edge, Jim regularly contributes to the hedge funds and private-equity division at Forbes. He has also written for other big names in financial publications like Barron's, the Wall Street Journal, and Bloomberg.
At The Edge, he helps his clients uncover profitable investing opportunities by helping them hone both an analytical and a behavioral edge in investing...
On the analytical side, he focuses on special situations, which he defines as "unusual or atypical" events that drive stock prices. These catalysts can be external or internal. Spinoffs, in particular, are a great source of value plays, and Jim shares how he invests in them on the show.
On the behavioral side, Jim highlights that emotional investing and fear of missing out can be costly. But he says that by understanding your risk, there's a way to manage your emotions...
[It's] not even [about] 'curb the emotion,' because we all are emotional creatures. It's whether you can recognize it... You can recognize your emotion and handle that. Then your actual thesis will play out.
In today's interview, Jim takes a deep dive into managing risk analytically and behaviorally... and why he considers it the ultimate solution to investment success.
Mon, 12 Sep 2022 - 1h 17min - 276 - 'Embrace Concentration'
This week, we're excited to welcome back a familiar voice to Investor Hour: Austin Root, the chief investment officer of Stansberry Asset Management ("SAM").
It has been more than two years since Austin's last conversation with Dan. During that time, Austin left behind a storied career at Stansberry Research – as the director of research, director of corporate development, and the editor and portfolio manager of Portfolio Solutions – to join SAM, where he develops and manages investment strategies across all portfolios.
This year, investors have had to contend with a turbulent market. But Austin has done a stellar job of helping SAM clients navigate – and even outperform – these choppy markets. He shares some of his unusual strategies in today's interview but says his job isn't just about maintaining a great stock-picking record. Rather, it's about drilling down these "mission critical" basics that every investor should incorporate into their portfolio...
Performing well is not just about identifying great stocks. More important than picking the stocks themselves is asset allocation, risk management, position sizing. These are all mission-critical aspects to investment success.
Also in this week's interview, Austin recounts what it was like to work with some of the investment world's biggest celebrities – like Steve Cohen, Julian Robertson, and George Soros. Plus, he shares the top four qualities that he looks for in investments, his favorite book on value versus growth investing, and more.
Tue, 06 Sep 2022 - 1h 10min - 275 - Navigating Today's Economic Battlefield
This week's guest, Jeff Muhlenkamp – the lead portfolio manager of financial planner Muhlenkamp & Company – got a unique start in investing...
Jeff's background is impressive – 20 years of service in the U.S. Army, a Bachelor of Science in electrical engineering, a master's degree in organizational leadership, and a Chartered Financial Analyst designation. As a result, he brings the perfect blend of discipline, analytical prowess, and leadership to portfolio management.
Jeff's foray into investing shows just how resourceful he is... Back in 1988, when his father ran Muhlenkamp & Company, Jeff made his first investment there. He came up with the money by applying for a military car loan... then shrewdly using only a small portion to buy the cheapest car he could find and dedicating the remainder to launch a new career in investing.
Today, Jeff prefers a measured, bottom-up approach when screening for opportunities. (One of his metrics happens to be in Dan's list of "Five Essential Financial Clues.") But he knows a well-rounded investor can't discount top-down considerations as well, like the No. 1 macroeconomic factor for U.S. investors to understand right now and the importance of market-cycle dynamics.
And for his answer to Dan's "Final Question," Jeff leaves listeners with stunningly practical advice...
Don't risk money you can't afford to lose... At an individual level, where your decision-making starts is: How much do you make? How much do you spend? Are you saving money? And for what purpose?
Those sorts of strategic decisions in your life are going to be much more important than the kind of decisions you'll hear analysts and financial planners talk about.
Mon, 29 Aug 2022 - 1h 08min - 274 - 'Don't Try Too Hard'
We're excited to bring on a brand-new Stansberry Investor Hour guest this week – a name that Stansberry Research readers will undoubtedly recognize: Brett Eversole...
After working with Stansberry Research heavyweight Dr. Steve Sjuggerud for more than a decade, Brett is now the lead analyst for Steve's suite of publications. In True Wealth, Brett and his team help their readers uncover safe, alternative investments that are overlooked by Wall Street. In True Wealth Systems, they use advanced, proprietary software to amplify investor returns in every corner of the market.
And in True Wealth Real Estate, they scour the market for deals that combine the power of investing directly in private real estate with the ease of profiting from housing stocks. That's where Brett and Dan start this week's interview...
A slew of new data released just last week confirms that the housing sector is in a worsening tailspin. But as a contrarian, Brett says the masses have mistakenly "over extrapolated" this cooldown and that we're not, despite popular belief, in a 2000s-style bubble that's headed for a bust.
Housing is like water – it's at the bottom of Maslow's hierarchy of needs... Nobody panic-sells their house.
He explains why today's reality is far different from what most folks fear and that with the right data and analysis, you can even uncover ways to profit in the housing sector today.
As for the driving force behind this slowdown, inflation is another topic that Brett and Dan tackle. They discuss its history (like the "guns and butter" era Dan lived through), their outlook on interest rates, and the Federal Reserve "pivot" narrative.
Finally, you'll hear about a shared musical hobby between the two and how it intersects with finance. And Brett leaves listeners with advice on how to work smarter – and not harder – with tips on developing effective work habits.
Mon, 22 Aug 2022 - 1h 05min - 273 - The 'Secret Weapon' in Cryptos
This week, Dan welcomes back an Investor Hour favorite... Stansberry Research's resident cryptocurrency expert Eric Wade.
Eric is the editor of Crypto Capital, Crypto Cashflow, and the Stansberry Innovations Report. Before joining Stansberry, he was a successful investor, Internet entrepreneur, founder of an internationally renowned business, and a movie scriptwriter. His passion for cryptos started with mining bitcoin and Ethereum before moving on to other strategies within the sector that raked in multiple double-digit winners.
As Eric tells Dan, it's undeniable that we're in a crypto bear market, and there are "no bailouts, no mulligans, no do-overs" for this volatile, sometimes-unforgiving industry. But even amid the current "crypto winter," he has uncovered winning trades for his readers that boast double- and triple-digit yields...
"We look for the source of the yield. And what surprises a lot of people is that we're in a world where most of us expect that most yield comes from being the other side of someone else's transactions, someone else's debt... But in the crypto space, we've managed to monetize that..."
"Some of your yields can come from other people's mistakes. And that monetization, to me, that's what the blockchain/crypto industry has as a secret weapon. Any strategy or tactic that anybody has deployed in the financial industry – you can monetize it now."
On the show, Eric and Dan discuss this secret weapon and the unlikely places you can use it.
He also shares a quick lesson on crypto basics using easy-to-understand analogies for listeners who are new to crypto. He delves into Ethereum's potential future as a global currency rivaling the U.S. dollar. And he challenges our host to a spirited discussion surrounding Dan's long-held belief that crypto is just "speculative technology" that "doesn't feel like a currency or a store of value." (Spoiler: Eric says Dan is dead wrong.)
Mon, 15 Aug 2022 - 1h 10min - 272 - The Best Investment You Can Make Is an Investment in Yourself
This week, we're honored to bring you the inspiring tale of Gautam Baid...
When Gautam first immigrated from India to the U.S. in 2015, he made ends meet by working a grueling graveyard shift as a hotel clerk. The nights were slow and long and monotonous. So Gautam passed the time by investing in himself. He voraciously read every finance and investment book he could get his hands on. As he tells Dan...
Even though it was a big challenge for me intellectually, physically, culturally, and emotionally, today, in hindsight, I highly value those days of my life because for the first time... I finally got some time for myself to read and learn...
This was the phase in my life during which I was about to realize the power of compounding knowledge.
Gautam used this knowledge to build an "intellectual foundation in investing." And in just a few years, he propelled himself from minimum-wage night shifts to a CFA charterholder, an internationally bestselling author, a feature in Morningstar Research's Learn From the Masters series, and the founder of his own investment firm, Stellar Wealth Partners India Fund.
In this week's episode of the Stansberry Investor Hour, Gautam and Dan discuss his unique definition of value investing, his No. 1 strategy that works across different market cycles and macroeconomic environments, the one time he received praise directly from the Oracle of Omaha himself, and the fundamental power of investing in yourself...
The body is limited in ways that the mind is not. By the time most people are 40 years old, their bodies begin to deteriorate. But there is no limit to the amount of growth and development that the mind can sustain. Reading keeps our minds alive and growing... Books are truly life-changing.
Mon, 08 Aug 2022 - 1h 02min - 271 - The $4 Trillion Market That's Only Getting Bigger
This week, for the first time ever, Dan is featuring two guests on the show. Regular Investor Hour listeners should instantly recognize their names... Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig and Thomas Carroll.
Doc is an MBA, former Wall Street trader, published author, and medical doctor. (Plus, he even owns a winery.) In the Stansberry Research universe, he's the editor of Retirement Millionaire, Retirement Trader, Income Intelligence, Advanced Options, and the Health & Wealth Bulletin.
Tom was once named by Fortune magazine as the No. 1 health care analyst in the U.S. His research has been referenced by health care publications and institutional investors alike, along with CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. And Stansberry readers know him for his investment expertise in the emerging legal cannabis market.
In today's interview, Tom says health care is the most promising and important economic sector of the market right now...
Some people think it's a boring sector to invest in, but I think it's paramount for every investor – for anyone who takes a self-directed or a primary interest in how they're investing their money. They have to know and have some exposure to health care. It's a $4 trillion market that's only getting bigger. It goes up each and every year.
That's why he and Doc recently joined forces with John Engel – a former biochemist and one of Stansberry's resident biotechnology experts – to launch a new research product, Prosperity Investor.
In this monthly advisory, the powerhouse team shares the best of the current industry stalwarts, next-generation medicine, emerging digital-health solutions, and much more.
On the show, Doc and Tom also share some of the biggest trends in the space. You'll hear about advancements in telemedicine, breakthrough research in immunology, and navigating the complexities in managed care.
Lastly, you won't want to miss the duo's final bit of advice for listeners... a nugget that Dan – once he removed his jaw from the floor – called "one of the best, most actionable answers ever given in the history of the show."
Mon, 01 Aug 2022 - 1h 17min - 270 - It's OK to Be Wrong
This week, Dan brings a fresh voice to the show: seasoned value investor Gary Mishuris.
Gary is currently the managing partner and chief investment officer of Silver Ring Value Partners, an investment firm that focuses on long-term intrinsic value investing. He has more than two decades of portfolio and asset-management experience plus degrees in computer science and economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology ("MIT")... which is where he received the advice that shaped his career.
Gary used to make rookie investor mistakes – like losing his shirt after putting all his money into a hot stock that tanked. But when Warren Buffett came to speak at Gary's alma mater, his words put the ambitious young man on a path to learn value investing instead of "gambling around with tech stocks."
Today, Gary has his own priceless advice to share with our listeners, such as keeping a well-diversified and allocated portfolio. He warns against blindly chasing the price action and stubbornly allocating half of one's portfolio to the biggest position...
I would say the goal there is to make sure that no one position can really sink the ship... It's good to have conviction, but you need to make sure that your process over time – which drives the outcome – is not in any one position.
But having conviction isn't entirely a terrible thing. As he explains, it's all about maintaining the "delicate balance"...
You have to be sufficiently flexible to adjust to the reality of the changes but have sufficient conviction... [so] you don't fall to the market's pressure.
During their conversation, Dan and Gary delve deep into the common psychological pitfalls that can come with investing. Gary also discusses the importance of exercising caution by playing "behavioral defense" amid a sea of folks who too often rely on "behavioral offense." He even shares his proprietary "thesis tracker" – a unique way to evaluate the performance of every investment in your portfolio.
Finally, Gary leaves us with the No. 1 trait he says every investor should have: humility...
You want to be humble in this business... Base your approach on humility and then work really hard from a position that you can be wrong a lot, and then build that being wrong into everything.
Mon, 25 Jul 2022 - 1h 07min - 269 - Finding Diamonds in the 'Scrap Heap'
This week, Dan welcomes a guest who he describes as "my style of investor"... Stansberry Venture Value editor Bryan Beach.
In his newsletter, Bryan hunts for gems in the beaten-down, hated microcap sector of the market. And no one does it better than Bryan... Thanks to years of creating and auditing financial reports for the "Big Four" and software companies, he has honed his talent for uncovering opportunities within the dense terrain of Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") filings.
Dan and Bryan delve into a conversation about special purpose acquisition companies ("SPACs") – a topic Bryan has been covering well before the 2021 bubble popped. And he has dug deep into the "SPAC scrap heap" to uncover a few diamonds in the rough, naming a few businesses on his radar, too.
Bryan also discusses another overvalued group of stocks that's a favorite of his – Software as a Service. Then, he scrutinizes the housing market, and Dan shares his "macro" point of view on the matter.
Finally, Bryan urges listeners to keep an open mind when investing... and to not readily dismiss the speculative side of the market...
"I encourage our readers to be thinking about all parts of their port. There's a time to go deep in microcaps and there's a time to avoid them altogether. And everyone's situation is a little bit different. That's what I think is important...
Pull up and look down at your portfolio. Get out of the weeds and look down at your whole portfolio... There's some part of the market that you haven't thought about in a while that you probably should think about again."
Mon, 18 Jul 2022 - 1h 09min - 268 - 'You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet'
Today's guest last joined Dan at the Investor Hour table when the world was in the throes of a newly declared pandemic. This time, he visits us amid rampant inflation... a newly declared bear market... and likely a nascent recession.
Doug is the founder of Casey Research and a prolific writer with several highly acclaimed books under his belt. His financial book Crisis Investing was a New York Times No. 1 bestseller for weeks, dethroning the works of heavyweights such as economist Milton Friedman, former President Richard Nixon, and astronomer Carl Sagan.
Doug isn't afraid to let loose on controversial topics like the Second Amendment and the police. And he doesn't mince words when it comes to Uncle Sam...
I despise politics... Politics is actually institutionalized coercion. It's all about the government and who runs it. The government is an entity that holds a gun to your head – subtly or overtly – and tells you to do what you're told.
Increasingly, American life is revolving around the state, the government, and what it does... That's putting people at odds with each other.
Thanks to Big Brother's excessive intervention throughout the years, Doug says, "The entire country has been greatly over-financialized... It's all going to come crashing down." He decries the U.S. Federal Reserve's heavy-handed plays and longs for a "stable, capitalist free market society."
And as for Dan's customary Final Question, Doug says rather than an "instant cosmic breakthrough," he'd like to leave listeners with a short-but-sweet, positive affirmation...
Don't sweat the small stuff... Just try to live an ethical life. Try to be happy, try to be mellow, and things will take care of themselves.
Mon, 11 Jul 2022 - 1h 12min - 267 - Scouring the Earth for Great Ideas
This week, Dan introduces a brand-new guest to Stansberry Investor Hour... But he's no stranger to Stansberry Research.
Dave Lashmet, colleague and editor of Stansberry Venture Technology, joins Dan for a fast-paced talk on innovation, technology, and, of course, investing. His Venture Technology service uses a "venture capitalist" investing approach and focuses on biotechnology firms. And according to Dan, Dave is "well known as a man who scours the Earth for great ideas," thanks to his boots-on-the-ground research and networking at countless conferences and meetings.
The two dive into Stansberry Research's history – including how founder Porter Stansberry actually hired Dave after meeting him in college... where Dave was Porter's professor. And Dave also regales Dan with tales of his former job as a self-described "mix between an engineer and a businessperson inside a tech company."
Dan also commends Dave for his recent recommendation to Venture Technology subscribers to sell their remaining stake in Nvidia (NVDA) for an eye-popping 1,400% return. And Dave gives an in-depth analysis of the biggest risks to the company, ranging from overseas geopolitical tensions to direct competitors like Intel (INTC).
He also offers insights on the dichotomy between venture capitalists and "angel investors" and reveals exactly what he looks for in a company. Finally, he shares what investors should watch out for when researching prospective portfolio candidates.
Tue, 05 Jul 2022 - 1h 00min - 266 - Having the 'Capacity to Suffer'
Today, Dan welcomes first-time Investor Hour guest Steve Gorelik to the show. A 15-plus-year veteran of Firebird Management, Steve currently manages the Firebird U.S. Value Fund. And as a native Belarusian, there's no one better suited to manage Firebird's Eastern Europe and Russia funds as well.
The big question Dan asks Steve is how he has been handling the funds amid the Russia-Ukraine war. Steve shares his thoughts on Russia's investment prospects and the ruble's volatility. And he explains that, surprisingly, many Eastern European companies present very robust investment opportunities – as long as the countries' macroeconomics look good.
When it comes to doing the legwork on researching a prospective addition to your portfolio, Steve emphasizes that you shouldn't just look at how a company makes money... Seeing how a company spends its money is critically important, too. He also delves into the prospect he sees in a particular type of financial company. And finally, according to Steve, every investor should aim to hone this invaluable trait, especially in today's tumultuous market...
The number of people who are able to hold through a year like 2022... and then be afraid to get back into the market when things are bottomed out... it's the capacity to suffer. It's the capacity to take a loss and not be afraid of what's happening. It's the capacity of being able to do the hard thing and get rewarded for it because other people won't. And that's going to be a competitive advantage both in investing... and in life.
Mon, 27 Jun 2022 - 1h 04min - 265 - From Buffett to Beethoven... Forging Your Own Path
We're now in a bear market... But today's Stansberry Investor Hour episode won't focus on that.
Instead, Dan has a unique guest whose rousing words will be a respite from the recent market carnage.
Vitaliy Katsenelson is the CEO of value-investing firm Investment Management Associates. He's the author of two books and an award-winning writer featured in publications like the Financial Times and Barron's. However, Vitaliy describes himself as a "student of life." And he has just released his third book, called Soul in the Game: The Art of a Meaningful Life.
As a classical-music lover, Vitaliy had a revelation when writing about the travails faced by some of his favorite composers during their own creative processes – from being compared with a former great to pioneering a piece that broke the rules. It's about learning how to push past the anxiety and forge your own path in life and investing...
In any profession, there's always going to be somebody who's considered to be the "greatest" whatever... It's so easy for us to just copy Warren Buffett. Instead, what we should be doing is we should be looking at how Warren Buffett is thinking. Also, we should not be afraid to think on our own...
You can look at the way Buffett invests, and you can actually build your own path.
The learning process can be complicated. But as Dan chimes in, "Things worth doing take time." He and Vitaliy also talk about the importance of repetition – whether it's rereading Nassim Taleb's book to unpeel its complicated layers or watching Pulp Fiction on repeat to understand the hype.
In this episode, Vitaliy also shares concepts from Soul in the Game, such as striking the right balance between art and craft in life. And he gives what might be the shortest answer ever (just two words!) to Dan's "Final Question."
Tue, 21 Jun 2022 - 1h 26min - 264 - Be Careful Out There
Today, we welcome Broyhill Asset Management President and Chief Investment Officer Chris Pavese to the Stansberry Investor Hour.
It has been three years since Dan and Chris last spoke on our show. And needless to say, a lot has changed in the markets and the world since then – including a pandemic, war, and economic turmoil. As a seasoned industry veteran who has guided his clients through previous cataclysmic financial events, Chris has some advice to offer novice investors...
He explains the big mistake fledgling investors make is "chasing the most spectacular returns" and looking for advice from people or places that "put up great numbers in bull markets" while ignoring their performance during bear markets. After all, he says, "The most spectacular returns of 2021 are posting the most spectacular losses this year."
Chris and Dan both agree that focusing on finding value in a market environment like this one is your best bet. That's the kind of research Chris' firm Broyhill specializes in... like examining big mergers and acquisitions to look for gems and breezing past airline stocks – which Chris describes as "notoriously awful businesses with notoriously awful balance sheets" – in favor of an overlooked sector right next door.
Finally, Chris imparts some wisdom regarding investor behavior thanks to his many years of advising clients – including the psychology around the big topic of "when to sell." And he shares the one simple and absolutely essential, yet often overlooked, thing to do before investing in any public company.
As human beings, we always do the opposite of what we should be doing. We're always buying when we should be selling – when the stock has gone down. And we're selling when the stock has gone up... That's the time to lock yourself in and ride that wave to make as much profit as possible.
Keith uses the company's software during the episode to give a rundown of the best and worst sectors to be in right now, as well as several market big dogs. He also shares the No. 1 metric that investors should home in on when researching recession-proof companies.
And he regales Dan with tales of how much hate mail TradeSmith received when it warned subscribers early of the major market slumps in 2020 and 2022 (which, of course, came true).
Mon, 13 Jun 2022 - 1h 19min - 263 - Stupidity... or Risk Awareness?
Yes, they've gotten a lot of flak. But could there be something more to the "meme-stock mania" crowd?
In this week's Investor Hour episode, host Dan Ferris welcomes WallStreetBets founder Jaime Rogozinski back to the show.
WallStreetBets is an infamous forum on social media site Reddit. The online community came to public attention in early 2021 when its denizens – often viewed as young, uneducated, and risk-hungry investors – crippled hedge funds by pumping up undeserving "dead stocks" like AMC Entertainment (AMC) and GameStop (GME).
In this week's interview, Jaime gives his eye-opening perspective on the 2021 mania, saying there's more to the story than the negative picture painted by the media...
It's a sophisticated way of doing risk awareness. But it's a conduit for people that start off in a risk-hungry environment and eventually move into a more responsible, traditional approach – but with a tremendous knowledge, I would say, even more so than the average person that starts off with lower-risk approaches.
Jaime also shares what he has learned about investor behavior from watching the action play out across the Reddit board...
When people go into the market and start off with a bunch of wins, it is very dangerous. It's much more dangerous than if they start off by losing money. And the reason why is because it kind of speeds up the learning curve. Somebody that loses money right away is forced to take a step back, slow things down, understand a little bit better, and not be so impulsive. Somebody that makes money without knowing what they're doing goes through these, kind of like, Dunning-Kruger effects... which basically is a way of saying people don't have the ability to measure their own abilities.
He assuages Dan's curiosity on whether anyone from WallStreetBets has ever blamed him for their losses. And he shares stories of even meeting some of the members. Plus, Jaime's simple but sage answer to Dan's Investor Hour-standard "Final Question" will resound in your investing... and in your life.
Mon, 06 Jun 2022 - 1h 07min - 262 - Trade Like a Professional
On the heels of last week's special bear market presentation comes the perfect guest for today's episode: Investor Hour veteran, software architect, and CEO of portfolio-tracking service TradeSmith Keith Kaplan.
As the threat of a recession looms, hunting for "forever businesses" while pruning portfolio losers at the right moment becomes critical for individual investors. The process can be overwhelming on your own. But TradeSmith's elegantly built trading software – the backbone of a product suite that offers everything from portfolio creation to management – distills all that complicated information into a simple, intuitive system. It's similar to what the professionals use, but it's engineered for the retail investor.
In this week's interview, Keith explains how his company's proprietary technology strives to make investing less daunting, using easy-to-understand "stoplight system" volatility indicators and smart trailing stop alerts. After all...
As human beings, we always do the opposite of what we should be doing. We're always buying when we should be selling – when the stock has gone down. And we're selling when the stock has gone up... That's the time to lock yourself in and ride that wave to make as much profit as possible.
Keith uses the company's software during the episode to give a rundown of the best and worst sectors to be in right now, as well as several market big dogs. He also shares the No. 1 metric that investors should home in on when researching recession-proof companies.
And he regales Dan with tales of how much hate mail TradeSmith received when it warned subscribers early of the major market slumps in 2020 and 2022 (which, of course, came true).
Tue, 31 May 2022 - 1h 05min - 261 - Riding Out the Bear
In this week's Investor Hour, Dan's going solo. Instead of the usual tête-à-tête with a guest (we'll return to this regularly scheduled format of our program next week, though), he wants to share something with his listeners that he recently hammered home in the Stansberry Digest...This is a bear market. I've been a fool not to think it. And I've been a fool not to say it to you. So let's consider that huge mistake fixed... I'll never make it again as long as I live. So for today's episode, Dan's coming straight to you, the listener, with his keen observations on the recent market action and his tips on what steps you can take to protect your portfolio. And to round out his assessment of today's bear market in equities, he's bringing on fellow colleague and resident cryptocurrency expert Eric Wade for a special commentary on the bear market in cryptos.
Mon, 23 May 2022 - 59min - 260 - Don't Be a Cowboy With Your Money
258
While this year has presented a difficult trading environment for everyone so far, Greg's Ten Stock Trader advisory has been making a killing. Its win rate stems from Greg's expertise in technical analysis – a strategy that relies on studying past market and human behavior to predict what's next. With nearly two decades of experience trading and managing multibillion-dollar portfolios across every asset class, Greg is well-versed in guiding his subscribers to profits... while also knowing when to sit back and be patient.
But it's not just about technical analysis... Greg also underlines the importance of understanding the fundamentals of market behavior, inspired by his recent readings on legendary investor and trader Stanley Druckenmiller...
At the end of the day, follow the Fed. What's the Fed doing? Are they opening the spigot and releasing cash into the market? Or are they not?
So, what's Greg's secret to surviving – and thriving – in this rocky market while everyone else gets "whipsawed"?
Greg says it all boils down to making sure you have two crucial items in your trading toolkit, both of which have led his readers to consistently make money, regardless of what the market is doing. And he explains why he believes the popular notion of checking your emotions at the door before investing or trading is actually a misconception.
Mon, 16 May 2022 - 1h 00min - 259 - How to Survive a 'Nuclear Winter'
In today's dismal market, value stocks remain a beacon of hope for investors... And there's no one better suited to discuss this topic than recurring Investor Hour favorite, Tobias Carlisle. Tobias is the founder and managing director of deep-value investment firm Acquirers Funds, which is centered around his trademarked valuation tool – the Acquirer's Multiple. Simply put, it's a "valuation ratio used to find attractive takeover candidates"... and is favored by many activists and buyout firms. On top of creating a proprietary metric, Tobias has also written several books, including The Acquirer's Multiple, Concentrated Investing, Deep Value, and Quantitative Value.
So, what does Tobias have to say about the slump we're in?
It's not really a question of where you think the market's going to go because you're invariably going to be wrong... The best return you're going to get is by being fully invested.
He says "names that can survive a nuclear winter" are the keys to surviving this bear market. To Tobias, that means focusing on deeply undervalued companies – ones that are buying back shares, are cheap, and are growing at a reasonable pace. He also breaks down the art of valuation – including his Acquirer's Multiple measure – and how to identify the right time to buy or sell.
Mon, 09 May 2022 - 1h 14min
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