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Step into the fascinating realm of finance and investing with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and an amazing line-up of co-hosts as your guide. Each week, we engage in captivating conversations with renowned investors, esteemed economists, skilled traders, and visionary thought leaders. Discover the wisdom derived from their journeys, embracing their triumphs and learning from their setbacks. At TTU, we strive to ignite your independent thinking, encouraging you to chart your own path to financial success. Tune in to stay informed and inspired on the ever-evolving landscape of finance and investing. Stay up-to-date with our latest episodes and blogposts at https://toptradersunplugged.com
- 1369 - ALO24: Managing Money Through Structural Shifts ft. Richard Urwin
Richard Urwin, Chair of the Investment Committee at Saranac Partners, the $6bn UK wealth manager, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss how he is approaching asset allocation at the current juncture. They discuss how long term valuations and asset class return forecast help inform Saranac’s strategic asset allocation and delve into some of the structural forces that may influence the economic outlook and asset class returns in the coming decade. While shifting demographics, climate change, high deficits and rising debt levels all have the potential to contribute to higher inflation and higher bond yields, Richard is cautious about being too pessimistic about the outlook and sees good opportunity in credit and alternative assets and strategies. They also discuss how Saranac think about selecting and sizing hedge funds in their portfolios and how this has changed in a higher interest rate environment.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Richard on LinkedIn
Episode TimeStamps:
02:45 - Introduction to Richard Urwin
06:31 - A noticeable shift?
08:49 - What is Saranac's investment philosophy?
13:06 - Dealing with structural shifts as an asset allocator
18:07 - How confident are they in forecasts?
24:24 - Balancing competing forces
30:08 - How Saranac builds balanced portfolios
33:55 - Do they consider supply shocks in their portfolios?
40:00 - The dangers of pessimism
44:27 - Their approach to alternative assets and strategies
48:38 - Their perspective on high-risk managers
51:15 - Their manager selection process
55:06 - How does the current environment dictate investing?
58:13 - About Urwin's PhD on option pricing
01:02:40 -Advice for other allocators
01:05:16 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 15 May 2024 - 1h 06min - 1368 - SI295: Trend Followers - The Unwanted Party Guests? ft. Nick Baltas
Together with Nick Baltas, we dive into trading signal direction and discuss if signal direction always trump signal strength in portfolio construction, based on CFM’s paper on Agnostic Risk Parity. Baltas also explains why allocating risk to where opportunity lies is prudent as well as why trend following is a powerful tool to achieve a broad risk allocation. Based on Baltas’ recent paper in the Financial Times, we also discuss equity momentum and why trend followers might be the “unwanted guests at the party”.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:52 - What has been on our radar recently?
12:36 - Industry performance update - how is May so far?
15:45 - New Ultimate Guide out now...How to get your Free copy!
16:38 - Q1, Peter: Should signal direction always trump signal strength in portfolio construction?
27:39 - Q1.1 Peter: Is it reasonable to aim for broadly equal risk allocations across different asset classes?
35:19 - Q1.2 Peter: If you were an institutional investor with an ultra-long time horizon, a stomach for short-term volatility and a mandate to deliver the highest possible CAGR over the long-term, how much of your portfolio would you allocate to systematic trend-following?
39:22 -Q1.3 Peter: Do you agree with Anthony Todd's description of trend alpha coming in bursts?
46:54 -Discussing Nick's paper in the Financial Times
57:48 -What kind of party guest would a trend follower be?
59:09 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 11 May 2024 - 1h 01min - 1367 - ALO23: Behind the Scenes of a High Net Worth Investor ft. Tad Fallows
In this episode, Tad Fallows, Founder of Long Angle, a community for high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth investors, joins Alan Dunne for a fascinating chat on how they approach asset allocation and find niche investment opportunities. Tad speaks about the typical risk appetite of his co-investors, highlighting how age and generation of wealth shape the risk profile of members. He talks about investments in private equity, alternative assets, and their investment strategies in the shifting macro landscape. Tad highlights why hedge funds may seem less appealing to them but why he has a lot of interest in trend following. He also speaks to some of the more esoteric investments his group makes such as whiskey aging, and talks about their crypto exposure. Finally, he highlights the importance of intuition and high conviction when making investment deals.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Tad on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:34 - Introduction to Tad Fallows
12:38 - The risk appetite of Long Angle investors
15:45 - What defines the Long Angle community?
19:52 - Why not the traditional route?
23:14 - How are they allocated?
27:20 - How they incorporate private equity in their portfolio
35:02 - How much of their returns are resilient to changes in global macro?
40:18 - Micro or macro?
45:08 - Taking advantage of inefficiencies in markets
47:04 - Why are they staying away from hedge funds?
49:32 - Why are they using trend following?
52:24 - Their thoughts on crypto
56:29 - Generating ideas and finding priorities
01:01:29 -Advice for other investors
01:07:05 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 08 May 2024 - 1h 08min - 1366 - SI294: Lowering the Cost of being Long Commodities ft. Hari Krishnan
Hari Krishnan returns to the show for a deep dive into commodities. He helps us understand why investing in commodities is not as easy as other markets and why he believes that we are entering a commodity super cycle. We also discuss how to overcome the challenges of holding and storing commodities and why cheap commodities are not always so cheap once you start rolling your futures position. We talk about where his new “virtual storage” concept can add value to a trend following system and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Hari on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:07 - What is catching our attention recently?
06:53 -A recap of April
10:14 - Hari's thoughts on trend following
14:30 - The interesting commodities
18:10 -A commodity super cycle inbound?
20:36 -BUT...Commodity Bulls used the same arguments in 2022
22:51 - How commodity storage functions
29:57 - Balancing divergence and convergence
32:26 - How virtual commodity storage works
35:55 - The role of trend following in a regime-based participation
42:47 - How consistent is the virtual warehousing approach?
47:06 - Manual or systematized?
48:59 - Overcoming the challenges of commodities
53:44 - What markets can the method be applied to?
54:16 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 04 May 2024 - 55min - 1365 - GM60: Preparing Your Portfolio for the Second Half of 2024 ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann
In this episode, Cem and I welcome Christian Mueller Glissman back on the show, and together, we tackle the intricacies of capital allocation in 2024, particularly amid the pivotal elections we expect to see. We discuss the pros and cons of starting with a 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy. Cem and Christian highlight Europe's resilience to inflation and its potential energy cost advantages, making it an attractive investment destination. We also analyze how election cycles, especially during populist periods like now, influence the economy and markets. Christian shares insights on using structured products to manage volatility, and both he and Cem strongly advocate for strategies like trend following in current market conditions. Finally, we discuss what an optimal portfolio allocation should include in 2024.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Christian on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:39 - Christian's current big picture macro framework
07:22 - The role of volatility in inflation
12:20 - Should the 60/40 portfolio always be your starting point?
21:02 - What are the risks of the 60/40 portfolio not being the starting point?
27:37 - A scary situation in Europe?
32:16 - How election periods affect the economy
40:22 - A wall of worry
43:30 - Christian's thoughts on using structured products to reduce volatility
48:03 - A push-pull effect
51:41 - Is trend following the solution?
54:39 - The optimal portfolio in 2024
01:01:04 - A time of opportunity?
01:03:49 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 01 May 2024 - 1h 05min - 1364 - SI293: Market Outlook for the Rest of 2024 & EOY S&P500 level ft. Cem Karsan
Today, I'm joined by Cem Karsan to discuss how speculations in markets affect the economy and Cem presents his view on the current state of global macro as well as a forecast for the rest of the year. How do conflicts around the world affect the global economy and why does Cem believe that we are going into a “dangerous period”? Why does Cem believe options are key to making profit from different scenarios and outcomes and what are the possibilities of seeing US rate cuts later this year? We also discuss how the U.S election will impact the economy and where Cem believes the equity markets will finish the year and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:47 - What has been on our radar recently?
02:22 - What is the talk of the town in the vol space at the moment?
03:11 -Industry performance update
05:27 - Q1: What is Cem's view on the impact of call speculation on the VIX?
12:17 - Cem's perspective on the current state of global macro
18:09 - Important market development recently?
31:40 - Making profit from different scenarios
35:48 - The structure of markets
42:23 -Are rate cuts coming?
48:10 - How the U.S election will change the economic narrative
53:32 - The pros and cons of a win for Trump
56:49 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 27 Apr 2024 - 58min - 1363 - GM59: The Geopolitical Tug-of-War: Russia, China & the West ft. Marko Papic
Join us for an eye-opening discussion on global power dynamics with geopolitics expert Marko Papic, alongside Cem Karsan and myself, where we dive deep into the ongoing tug-of-war between the West, Russia, China, and the rest of the world. Marko sheds light on the United States' push for a clear bipolar world order. He shares his insights on whether the world as we know it is coming to an end and why a Trump presidency may pave the way for trade deals and foreign policy agreements, particularly with rivals like China. Looking ahead, Marko discusses Europe's industrial sector and explains why investing in European industrials could be a smart move. Finally, we explore the complexities of the relationship between Russia and China. Are they as close as we think? And is China's dream of becoming the next superpower within reach? We also delve into the possibility of China's move to invade Taiwan and what it would entail.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Marko on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:15 - Marko's current macro framework
07:20 - Moving towards a multi-polar world
14:43 - How is now different from back in the days?
23:36 - Trump landing the deglobalization plane
31:48 - The election - a macro black hole
36:47 - The new world from a non-US perspective
44:18 - What happens with Ukraine?
49:50 - An increased risk for bigger global conflicts?
56:15 - Creating strong relationships
01:02:50 - Will China invade Taiwan in the next 5 years?
01:05:30 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 24 Apr 2024 - 1h 06min - 1362 - SI292: Is Cocoa becoming Too Hot for Trend Followers? ft. Rob Carver
Today, Rob Carver joins me to answer questions about MatLab as a backtesting tool, why you should be careful to apply trend following in crypto and what Rob think about seasonality and relative value as strategies. We also dive into why Rob has increased his allocation to trend following and his thought process when building portfolios, how the surging price of cocoa has impacted the trend following industry and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:05 - What has been on our radar recently?
06:15 - Industry performance update
09:54 - Q1, Paul: Where can I learn MatLab?
13:38 - Q2, Byleth: What is Rob's experience with trend in crypto?
20:41 - Q3, Tauras: What are Rob's thoughts on seasonality and relative value as strategies?
26:23 - Are strategies like seasonality convergent?
27:14 - Rob's thoughts on relative value as a strategy
32:00 - Shock! Horror! I've increased my CTA allocation
41:07 - Rob's thought process on portfolio allocation
46:19 - Vol scaling with a nice cup of hot cocoa
57:43 - Path-dependence vs. non-path dependence
59:53 - Final thoughts and a cliff hanger
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 20 Apr 2024 - 1h 01min - 1361 - IL25: Any Happy Returns... the Next Super Cycle? ft. Peter Oppenheimer
In this episode Peter Oppenheimer, Chief Global Strategist and Head of Macro Research in Europe for Goldman Sachs joins us to discuss his new book Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets. Peter believes financial cycles are the primary driver of investor returns. He explains how each cycle consists of four phases with distinct characteristics in terms of returns, earnings growth and valuations. We talk about the structural changes that are creating headwinds for markets in our current super-cycle and how AI and the energy transition might help offset them.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Peter on LinkedIn & read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:07 -Introduction to Peter Oppenheimer
04:59 -What do financial cycles derive from?
07:19 -What drives the cycles?
09:31 -A desynchronisation in the cycles
12:15 -Are we entering an optimism phase?
14:39 -Interpreting the signals
17:38 -Does Peter see room for interest rates to rise?
21:59 -What drives the high corporate profits in GDP?
26:54 -Are companies losing their margins?
29:17 -The potential of AI
31:54 -Can high energy consumption ruin the development of AI?
35:48 -Where will the investment in AI come from?
40:00 -Going full cycle
41:37 -The engines of growth
43:43 -Did the central bank response stop markets from becoming volatile?
48:13 -The role of central banks
51:22 -Getting out of a period of high debt
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 17 Apr 2024 - 57min - 1360 - SI291: Trend Following...What should it mean to Investors? ft. Richard Brennan
In this episode, we are joined by Richard Brennan to discuss why now is the time to step up your trend following allocation. Rich challenges Andrew Beer’s conclusion that a 3% allocation to trend following is the sweet spot and explains why he believes the trend following industry should simplify its narrative and quit the fancy “jargon”. We also discuss what defines a trend follower and why we may be losing the incentive to keep improving as trend followers, new research on the impact of crises and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:08 -What has been on our radar recently?
08:33 -Industry performance update
16:02 -What is the optimal allocation to trend following?
24:02 -Do trend followers have fiduciary responsibility?
27:09 -Why is Andrew Beer having trouble with his trend following allocation?
31:30 -Are we moving too far away from the classic trend following?
37:21 -What does it take to call yourself a trend follower?
42:01 -Discussing Corey Hoffstein's approach
46:44 -What about the fees?
50:34 -Are we losing the incentive to improve?
58:45 -The impact of crises
01:07:11 - Sign up for our new newsletter
01:08:26 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 13 Apr 2024 - 1h 09min - 1359 - TTU146: The value of Unpredictable Alpha ft. Anthony Todd
Today, we are delighted to be joined by Anthony Todd, Co-Founder & CEO of Aspect Capital, for an insightful discussion on the role of systematic trading and trend following in today’s economy. We also discuss what has driven Aspect Capital’s shift towards developing multiple strategies and how they guide their clients to make better investment decisions, whether the trend following industry should be concerned about replication strategies and how allocations are funded today. Lastly, we discuss how Aspect Capital uses AI in their work and how systematic trading has changed as a whole with the rise of AI, what Todd is most excited and concerned about in 2024 and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Todd on LinkedIn.
Find out more about DUNN Capital
Episode Timestamps:
02:24 - Introduction to Anthony Todd and Aspect Capital
05:43 - A global macro perspective
09:45 - How has the industry evolved?
13:51 - Are investors under-allocated to trend?
17:11 - Trend following - a return enhancer?
20:37 - The correlation between stocks and bonds
25:27 - The path to offering multible strategies
29:47 - Balancing choices and guiding clients and investors
33:26 - Are CTAs threatened by replication strategies?
39:11 - How are allocations funded now?
42:28 - CTAs - competitors or a different allocation?
44:44 - Does capping the beta make sense?
49:21 - Are investors becoming too difficult?
52:49 - Todd's view on the use of artificial intelligence
58:13 - Has trend following changed because of AI?
01:02:53 -Excitement and concerns for 2024
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK TTU146: Aspect Capital InsightsCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 10 Apr 2024 - 1h 11min - 1358 - SI290: Honey, I Shrunk the Trend Following ft. Andrew Beer
Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer to discuss why the current surge in Cocoa prices really is a big deal for our industry, but how CTAs have been selling it this year, against many main stream media reports. We also dig into how the strong performance in Q1 2024 is helping Trend Following making its way into more Model Portfolios and the existential crisis that we are seeing in the Model Portfolio world. We explain how the narrative around trend following is changing and why replication strategies are becoming less radical. And we wrap up our conversation touching on what the optimal allocation to trend following should be based on the latest publication from Man Institute, the challenges of dealing with unrealistic expectations in the trend following space and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:16 - What has been on our radar recently?
05:38 - Industry performance update
06:49 - What is the big deal with Cocoa?
11:49 -What causes the rising Cocoa prices?
13:56 - A fantastic start to the year for trend following
16:58 - Industry performance update continued
18:12 - Q1, Peter: What percentage of your liquid net worth do you have invested in DBMF?
22:05 - What does Q1 2024 mean for CTAs?
30:51 - A period of normalcy
34:02 - A change in the trend following narrative
42:54 - Are replication strategies becoming less radical?
46:22 - Stacking returns - a good or bad idea?
52:35 - Honey, I Shrunk the Trend-Following (paper from Man Institute)
57:08 - Finding the optimal allocation
01:04:27 - Niels' different perspective on a trend following allocation
01:07:11 -Different allocations for different situations?
01:11:10 -Too old for unrealistic expectations
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK SI290: Honey, I Shrunk the Trend-Following | Man InstituteCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 06 Apr 2024 - 1h 15min - 1357 - ALO22: Finding an Absolute Return Solution for a C$11BN Pension Plan ft. Christophe L'Ahelec
Christophe L’Ahelec, Managing Director of Public Markets at University Pension Plan Ontario, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss their approach to managing the C$11bn defined benefit pension plan. We discuss the high level Strategic Asset Allocation of the plan and also how the changed macro environment in recent years has motivated a shift in the asset allocation towards more absolute return strategies. Such strategies play a dual role of diversification and return enhancement for UPP and we discuss how Christophe thinks about an appropriate strategy allocation within absolute return. We also delve into the challenges of manager selection and evaluation, why it is important to remember that you are buying an “investment process” not historical returns when allocating to managers and discuss when is it appropriate to remove a manager and when not.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Christophe on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:50 -Introduction to Christophe L'Ahelec
07:06 -A new initiative
10:01 -What kind of strategy drives their asset allocation?
12:40 -What goes into which bucket?
14:45 -What makes absolute return exposure more attractive at the moment?
16:31 -Constructing an absolute return portfolio
18:38 -How they approach trend following
21:58 -Why do they use leverage?
23:32 -What do they expect from their portfolio?
25:12 -Managing liabilities
27:58 -Public equities - where do they stand?
30:59 -Investing in niche strategies
34:11 -How they evaluate managers
36:21 -Open to early stage manager risk?
41:42 -What makes a manager stand out?
44:56 -When should you remove a manager?
46:47 -What is their governance process?
50:36 -How they make decisions as a team
52:20 -Advice for new investors
55:34 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 03 Apr 2024 - 56min - 1356 - SI289: Kahneman, Trend Following & Cocoa ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski joins us to remember one of the most important people within modern-day finance, author and psychologist, Daniel Kahneman, and the impact he had on our industry. We also discuss how increasing interest rates change the way investors behave and why trend following and CTAs have performed so well the past 5 years, perhaps without been given the credit the strategy deserves. We also dive into the cocoa market to discuss why it may still have a long way to go, despite racking up another 60% rise in March 2024 alone. We then move on to explain why the financial conditions index is important to understand for trend followers and why Mark believes stocks may continue to rise. Lastly, we discuss what makes trend following unique, why having trend following in your portfolio can help you achieve better performance and more diversification and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:03 - Remembering Daniel Kahneman
03:54 - Things are changing
09:54 - Industry performance update
13:32 - What the Credit Suisse Managed Futures Index is missing
16:23 - Let's talk about Cocoa
21:55 - Trends can last longer than people expect
24:44 - Is the Cocoa market a bubble?
28:31 - Less markets = better performance?
30:43 - Static vs. Dynamic position sizing in the Cocoa market
39:13 - Understanding the financial conditions index
45:09 - A euphoric environment
49:47 - What makes trend following unique?
54:50 - Global macro vs. trend following
59:01 - A rotation in the alternative markets
01:03:15 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK SI289: Global Macro and Managed Futures Hedge Fund Strategies: Portfolio Differentiators?LINK SI289: A Century of Macro Factor InvestingCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 30 Mar 2024 - 1h 06min - 1355 - OI07: The Evolution of Short-Term Trading ft. Tony Kaiser
In this episode, Moritz Seibert is joined by Tony Kaiser, the CEO and founder of Kaiser Trading, a short-term systematic fund based in Melbourne, Australia.
Tony speaks about his start in the late 1990s, leaving a bank prop trading role to set up his own shop, and then comments on how the short-term trading space has changed and evolved over the years. Today, the models they use are shorter-term than the ones they used to trade decades ago, and the entire business is much more tech dependent. Tony mentions that short-term trading is difficult and that the space has a higher barrier to entry, which is why there are relatively few short-term managers for investors to choose from, but that one really attractive feature is the low correlation of their returns not only to traditional asset classes, but also to their own sector, i.e., other short-term managers.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Tony on LinkedIn
Episode TimeStamps:
02:16 -Introduction to Tony Kaiser
04:07 -An interesting journey
16:50 -A difficult space for alpha
20:55 -Why did Kaiser move into the short term space?
28:17 -How has trading frequency and systems evolved?
33:15 -Do Kaiser's original models still work today?
45:28 -A shock to the system
49:43 -Where does the low correlation come from?
57:00 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 27 Mar 2024 - 58min - 1354 - SI288: Why Investors are Under-Allocating to Trend Following? ft. Alan Dunne
Join us for the weekly trend following update with Alan Dunne, where we discuss why 2024 is turning into an interesting year for investors with diverging signals from Central Banks. We debate the possibility of the markets entering a bubble and how the levels of interest rates could cause a refinance crisis. Alan also takes us through the history and outlook as per the newly released UBS 2024 Yearbook, uncovering what has been dominating the economy throughout history, and the reason why many investors might be missing out on potential diversification by under-allocating to trend following. Lastly, we discuss the role of hedge funds in a multi asset portfolio and the importance of constructing a portfolio that best suits the investor’s needs.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:21 - What is catching our attention at the moment?
05:40 - Is the economy becoming a bubble?
14:09 - A refinance crisis inbound?
20:41 - Industry performance update
24:49 - The economic outlook and history - UBS 2024 Yearbook
32:29 - Equities are here for the long term
37:57 - All in on equities?
44:15 - Investors are getting this wrong
46:19 - Can hedge funds play the right role?
50:17 - Where do multi-strat funds fit in?
53:28 - Choosing the right strategy
58:00 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK SI288: Why Not 100% EquitiesLINK SI288: Can hedge funds play the role?LINK SI286: The Road Ahead: Regime-Based InvestingLINK SI281: History Shows What to Expect from Trend-Following When Rates Are Being CutLINK SI280: Driving with the Rear-View MirrorLINK SI280: Stocks for the Long Run?LINK SI280: Dial Up Return, Not Risk: The Z-Shift FrameworkLINK SI280: Stocks for the Long Run? Sometimes Yes, Sometimes NoLINK: Insights from AlphaSimplexCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 23 Mar 2024 - 59min - 1353 - OI6: A Fundamental Approach to Commodities ft. Ricardo Leiman & Pedro Marion
In this episode, Moritz Seibert is joined by Ricardo Leiman and Pedro Marion from KLI Asset Management, a UK-based commodities-focused hedge fund. Ricardo and Pedro explain why KLI’s trading approach is rooted in deep fundamental analysis of commodity supply and demand and how they integrate commodity equities into their portfolio. Furthermore, they mention that the strong diversification across their portfolio of about 30 markets allows them to hold directional positions longer term, avoiding stop-outs on short-term price reversals – a feature that’s also an edge. Ricardo and Pedro also provide color on markets which they believe are currently interesting, including copper, sugar, coffee, oil, and EUA emission allowances.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Ricardo on LinkedIn
Follow Pedro on LinkedIn
Episode TimeStamps:
02:09 -Introduction to Ricardo and Pedro
06:18 -What is their edge?
07:57 -What commodities are they trading?
08:46 -Why they don't trade cocoa
11:09 -Acquiring information through networking
13:40 -Why and how do they trade commodity equities
17:15 -What do they consider long-term?
19:38 -Why isn't copper sky rocketing?
22:01 -Their approach to options
22:50 -How they incorporate trend following in their trading
25:24 -Global macro perspectives
27:28 -No hard landing?
28:35 -Is the coal market dying?
31:14 -The outlook of EUAs
35:03 -Do they formulate a price target in their models?
37:08 -A disconnect in the green transition
38:58 -Natural gas market integrating with LNG
40:55 -Their view on the grain markets
43:34 -A quick touch on other markets
44:20 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 20 Mar 2024 - 45min - 1352 - SI287: No Pain, No Gain ft. Katy Kaminski
Today, we welcome Katy Kaminiski back to the show as we reflect on her entry into the trend following space and what she has learned on her systematic journey. We also discuss different ways of allocating risk in portfolio construction and why Katy “loves skewness”, why preparing for pain can actually lead to better decisions as an investor and how changes in the global macro environment takes time to manifest in trends. Lastly, we discuss what we are both excited and nervous for in 2024.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:50 -What has been on our radar recently?
03:03 -When are trends coming to an end?
06:24 -Industry performance update
07:31 -How did Katy end up in the trend following industry?
11:19 -What attracted her to the industry?
12:40 -What Katy has learned from being an allocator
15:44 -Risk variations in portfolio construction
20:21 -What drives the biggest dispersion?
21:54 -Understanding risk in your portfolio
24:05 -Constant vol targeting - just a phase?
25:25 -The importance of skewness
31:06 -Mind the timeframe
34:57 -Preparing for pain ahead of time (MAN Paper)
38:15 -No pain, no gain...
43:28 -Economic trend (AQR Paper)
47:33 -Dealing with a world in disruption
50:48 -Excitement and worries about 2024
57:05 -What is up for next episode?
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK SI281: History Shows What to Expect from Trend-Following When Rates Are Being CutLINK: Insights from AlphaSimplexCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 16 Mar 2024 - 59min - 1351 - GM58: Electric Dreams and Commodity Market Realities ft. Tor Svelland
Tor Svelland, of Svelland Capital, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss the global macro forces driving global commodity markets. They discuss how the commodity markets have evolved over the years, as banks have scaled back trading and quant firms and CTAs have become more prominent players. Tor outlines the key reasons he believes commodity markets are in the midst of a super cycle, identifies where he sees the strongest opportunities and discusses what the commodity markets are currently suggesting about the state of global demand. They discuss how the global energy transition, de-globalization and nearshoring, rising geopolitical risk and increased defence spending will impact markets. They also delve into the periodic mis-pricings Tor sees between equities, particularly technology stocks, and commodities given their rising electricity demand.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Tor on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:26 -Introduction to Tor Svelland
06:18 -How have commodity markets evolved?
09:19 -More opportunities in commodity markets?
11:32 -Why Tor started his own firm
14:15 -Tor's outlook for the commodity markets
17:10 -What has driven the flat trend in the major industrial markets?
20:09 -Are we in a super cycle?
22:55 -Translating trends into trades
24:47 -Which markets will benefit from the energy transition?
26:55 -A slow transition
31:14 -The temperature of the global economy
35:21 -Where will we see signs of recession?
39:13 -Is disinflation a major trend?
41:14 -How extreme can it get?
42:42 -How will Europe meet its energy demands going forward??
45:13 -How the defense spending will impact markets
47:07 -Taking advantage of the spikes in markets
51:06 -How volatility sellers affect markets
52:56 -Additional observations in the commodity markets
55:18 -Putting it all together
56:52 -Why has gold miners been so slow?
58:27 -Private capital taking over?
59:20 -Advice for other investors
01:00:30 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 13 Mar 2024 - 1h 01min - 1350 - SI286: Profiting from Different Investment Regimes? ft. Rob Carver
This week, Rob Carver joins us to uncover his process of choosing which instruments to trade and how to manage the volatility of these. We also discuss how time frames affect position sizing and the ability to get reasonable exposure to a market as well as how you manage your expenses as a full time systematic trader. We round off our conversation with a deep dive into the latest paper from Man Institute to find out if different regimes exist in reality or just in hindsight. The paper uncovers if investors can reliably profit from correctly identifying them and if so, how? And how various types of investing have performed through different regimes, including Trend Following.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:26 -What has been on our radar recently?
06:31 -Industry performance update
13:41 -Q1.0, Matthijs: Assuming that the trading costs are not a problem for some low-vol instrument, then how can we decide whether/how to still safely include the instrument in our portfolio?
23:50 - Q1.1 Matthijs: How do we distinguish between benign naturally low-vol instruments and disasters waiting to happen due to artificially dampened volatility?
26:18 - Q2, Ben: If I can trade markets like sugar or OJ on 20-day breakouts, is it reasonable to do so or is that quote-unquote too fast?
32:08 - Q3, Emil: As a full time systematic trader, how do you manage your expenses, with up and down months/years?
43:09 - Discussing latest Man Institute paper on regime based investing
50:37 - A win for trend following
59:32 - Does it matter if the Fed is tightening?
01:01:53 -The Impact of Contango vs. Backwardation
01:09:57 -Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK SI288: Why Not 100% EquitiesLINK SI288: Can hedge funds play the role?LINK SI286: The Road Ahead: Regime-Based InvestingLINK SI286: Regime-Based InvestingLINK SI281: History Shows What to Expect from Trend-Following When Rates Are Being CutLINK SI280: Driving with the Rear-View MirrorLINK SI280: Stocks for the Long Run?LINK SI280: Dial Up Return, Not Risk: The Z-Shift FrameworkLINK SI280: Stocks for the Long Run? Sometimes Yes, Sometimes NoLINK: Insights from AlphaSimplexCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 09 Mar 2024 - 1h 11min - 1349 - IL24: Our Chance to Build a Sustainable Future ft. Hannah Ritchie
In this episode we talk to Dr. Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor and Lead Researcher at Our World In Data and author of the Not The End of the World, How We Can Be The First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet. Dr. Ritchie talks about her personal journey from a climate pessimist ready to switch careers to a data scientist explaining why the world can transition to a sustainable future. We discuss how China and India are becoming greener at a much faster rate than western countries did as they developed. We also talk about why electrification is so important and the role for nuclear and gas power in that process. She explains why food systems play an important role in emissions and the surprising list of individual actions that help - and also hurt - the environment.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Hannah on LinkedIn andRead her Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - Introduction to Hannah Ritchie
09:17 - How does Hannah describe herself and her work?
10:56 - How has global CO2 emission developed?
16:01 - How is China managing their intermittency problem?
19:10 - How does nuclear play a role for our future?
21:53 - Natural gas - a perfect bridge?
23:35 - Are EVs a viable solution for transportation?
26:55 - Addressing the criticism of EVs
30:31 - Why does a plant based diet have such a big environmental impact?
34:05 - Why organic farming methods and local meat isn't really sustainable
37:59 - Why is Ritchie skeptical about vertical farming?
40:50 - Can plastic be positive for the environment?
43:16 - Managing the plastic waste
47:27 - Importing and export plastic waste
49:38 - How to be an optimal data scientist
56:11 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 06 Mar 2024 - 58min - 1348 - SI285: Elections Ahead & What this Mean for Investors ft. Cem Karsan
Today, Cem Karsan joins us to discuss a wide range or really important topics. Inspired by questions from listeners we discuss how the balance in asset performance is shifting and how 0DTE impact markets. We also discuss how 2024 will contain more inportant elections than any other year in recent history and how we foresee the U.S. election will play out, the state of flows and the rise of a new meme stock. Lastly, we discuss whether the U.S. is beginning to loose the exorbitant privilege due to their huge debt and the potential power shifts that can happen in the nearby future.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:06 - What has been on our radar recently?
05:13 - Industry performance update
08:01 - Q1, Rick: Is positioning in tech under or over weighted?
11:23 -How 0DTE impact markets
18:08 - Is the VIX broken?
24:03 - 2024 - The year of elections
30:19 - Republicans or democrats - does it even matter to the markets?
32:09 - The return of the Kennedy's
39:15 - What is going on with flows?
47:55 - The rise of meme stocks
52:41 - How the U.S. debt will impact the dollar
59:59 - A wild ride for Japan
01:05:54 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 02 Mar 2024 - 1h 07min - 1347 - ALO21: How to Run a Multi-Billion Dollar Sovereign Fund ft. Peter Madsen
Peter Madsen, CIO of SITFO, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss how the $3.5bn State of Utah Sovereign Fund runs its investment portfolio. They discuss the rationale for Peter’s investment philosophy of having a diversified portfolio of growth assets, real assets, income generating assets and defensive strategies in contrast to the equity-centred portfolios of many endowments. Peter discusses the key risk considerations in managing the portfolio and how the team think about formulating return expectations. They discuss the opportunities in private markets and the potential risks in private credit in particular. A key element of the portfolio is the allocation to Systematic Convexity which includes Trend Following and Global Macro strategies and Peter discusses his journey investing in CTAs and some of the challenges and pitfalls of selecting managers.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Peter on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:56 - Introduction to Peter Madsen and his firm
06:54 - How is their portfolio charactarized?
09:16 - Their investment philosophy
14:33 - A skepticism about equities?
17:04 - How do the macro environment influence them?
21:23 - What is reasonable return expectation for equities?
25:19 - Splitting between public and private markets
28:20 - Where lies the most risk?
30:25 - Opportunities in the private credit space
33:21 - Building a strong defense
38:29 - Why don't more people invest?
40:41 - Madsen's view on CTAs and Global Macro
45:51 - The pitfalls of manager selection
49:29 - How important is performance?
51:39 - Constructing an efficient decision-making process
56:24 - Guiding and assessing a team of managers
59:55 - Advice for other investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 28 Feb 2024 - 1h 05min - 1346 - SI284: Choosing Your Trend Following Battles ft. Nick Baltas
Goldman Sachs's Nick Baltas joins us today, to help us uncover if it is meaningful to use factor regression to evaluate managed futures. We also weigh in on couple of articles, relating to the outlook for trend following and the state of the industry, before turning our attention to some hard core research into how to construct the optimal trend following portfolio and why it is important to be conscious of which battles you pick. Lastly, we discuss the challenge of timing an investment into trend following, the pros and cons of trading alternative markets and more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:23 - What has caught our interest recently?
03:04 - The Nikkei index finally comes out it its 35 year drawdown
05:35 - Industry performance update
07:37 - Q1, Oliver: Does it makes sense to use factor regression to evaluate managed futures?
14:24 - The state of the industry
18:17 - Is trend following flopping?
27:34 - Building optimal trend following portfolios
36:15 - Pick your battles
49:10 - Is there a way to time trend following?
53:34 - Is it actually an advantage to trade alternative markets?
01:04:44 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 24 Feb 2024 - 1h 06min - 1345 - OI05: Is Trading Fewer Markets Actually Better? ft. Richard Liddle & Gareth Abbot
In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Gareth Abbot and Richard Liddle from Bowmoor Capital, a trend following firm based in the UK. Gareth and Richard explain why they decided to go against many trend followers and limit their investment universe to 21 markets – a “compact” portfolio – and why additional markets would likely dilute the return stream they aim to generate. We also speak about their portfolio construction process which includes the combination of 16 systems and results in what they call “smart pyramiding” in and out of positions. Finally, we touch on dynamic position sizing.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Richard on LinkedIn
Follow Bowmoor Capital.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:09 - Introduction to Richard Liddle and Gareth Abbot
05:19 - How did they get into investing?
09:43 - Why trend following?
13:55 - Solving the market puzzle
15:36 - How they designed their strategy?
18:46 - The reason for their market selection
24:18 - Why exactly 21 markets?
31:13 - How did they design their system?
39:47 - Why they don't trade hundreds of markets
42:08 - What timeframes and models do they work with?
50:13 - Controlling the heat
55:31 - What is "heat" in a portfolio?
57:26 - How do they manage the heat?
01:00:06 - How they use dynamic position sizing
01:05:00 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 21 Feb 2024 - 1h 06min - 1344 - SI283: How to Beat the Benchmarks ft. Richard Brennan
Come along for this fascinating conversation with Richard Brennan, where we dive into how to the beat the benchmarks as a manager. We discuss the different factors that goes into achieving great performance and why trend following has greater potential return than other alternative investment strategies, why bigger and newer is not always better in terms of complex adaptive systems, why it is important to be aware of system diversification and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:07 - What has caught our attention recently?
02:33 - What will 2024 bring for trend following?
07:11 - Inflation? Look to the Tooth Fairy
08:33 - Industry performance update
11:34 - Q1, Mark: Should trend followers size long and short positions the same?
17:20 - Outperforming the benchmarks
36:39 - The "secrets" of achieving great performance
44:42 - Is bigger always better?
52:43 - The importance of system diversification
01:03:45 - Working out the optimal parameters
01:08:14 - Crazy times in the cocoa market
01:09:41 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sun, 18 Feb 2024 - 1h 12min - 1343 - GM57: Navigating the Next Decade ft. Kiril Sokoloff
Legendary strategist Kiril Sokoloff, founder and Chairman of 13D Research, joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a whirlwind tour of where Kiril sees the risks and opportunities in global markets over the next decade. Kiril outlines the reasons behind his belief that the secular bull market in bonds is over and a secular bear market is now underway. They discuss implications of climate change decarbonisation, the ageing global economy, rising debt levels and the growing risk of a significant derailment of the global economy from protectionism. Kiril explains why he is bullish oil, copper, uranium and gold and why gold mining stocks are the cheapest asset on the planet and his top contrarian call. They discuss China’s current economic challenges and why Kiril remains upbeat on the longer-term outlook for China and Chinese stocks but why there may be even greater opportunities in India.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Kiril's work on 13D.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:31 - Introduction to Kiril Sokoloff
05:21 -Are we heading back to "normal"?
11:17 -Will China become an inflationary force?
14:30 - Is China still investable?
17:05 -A Chinese confidence crisis
18:45 - The outlook for inflation from a historical perspective
23:13 - What is going on in the oil market?
25:45 - What drives the shift towards solar energy in China?
27:57 - The move towards nuclear energy
29:55 - U.S vs. Europe vs. China
33:12 - How to position for the next 20 years
35:12 - Why is Sokoloff a fan of gold?
39:13 -A move away from the dollar
44:50 - Understanding the gold market
49:05 - How will AI impact the economy?
51:30 - India - the next China?
53:34 - How will the decarbonization evolve?
55:38 - Sokoloff's favorite contrarian calls
57:50 - Sokoloff's process for generation ideas
59:24 -Advice for other investors
02:02:03 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 14 Feb 2024 - 1h 03min - 1342 - SI282: Rethinking Bonds: the Changing Role of Fixed Income ft. Andrew Beer
Andrew Beer returns to the show for a fascinating conversation, where we question the role of Bonds in today's environment, and review both current and historic performance, and what it takes to change investors minds about replacing bonds with managed futures. We also discuss why long-term timeframes might be better for most investors within Trend Following and why stock-picking are becoming less relevant due to shifts in the S&P500 structure. Lastly, we touch on the ETF space and how the investment industry is slow at adapting to change, whether democracy is on its last legs and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:53 -A dark time
04:24 -Industry performance update
10:57 -Should we replace bonds with managed futures? (or vice versa)
21:59 -What does it take to change investors minds?
33:26 -No one can erase 2022, and that is important
35:01 -A misleading narrative in the managed futures space
38:30 -Long or short term - who performed the best?
43:39 -Are stocks becoming less relevant?
53:22 -An update on the ETF space
56:25 -An existential crisis within equity hedge funds
58:55 -Capitalism and the political discourse
01:03:58 -Is democracy on its last legs?
01:06:32 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sun, 11 Feb 2024 - 1h 08min - 1341 - GM56: Structural Shifts - A Threat to the Economy? ft. Frances Donald
Frances Donald, Chief Economist and Strategist at Manulife Investment Management, joins Alan Dunne to discuss how the drivers of the economy and inflation are undergoing a structural shift and what this means for the economic outlook. We hear why Frances expects a recession in the US economy in 2024 and why the risks to her forecasts are on the downside. Frances outlines where she currently sees tactical opportunities in fixed income markets and why she expects equity markets to face headwinds as investors start to see “bad news as bad news” this year. The conversations delves into the big shift underway in the global economy, becoming more supply driven than demand driven and the implications this will have for inflation, monetary policy and fiscal policy over the medium term.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Frances on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:39 - Introduction to Frances Donald
06:39 - What caused a pivot from the central banks?
13:10 - Why were they wrong about their forecast?
20:43 - Where are the weak spots?
23:58 - Does recession calls even matter?
27:34 - Frances' outlook for the economy
39:21 - Are we heading into a structural shift?
51:04 - Will things change in the next administration?
53:33 - Are fixed income markets becoming more investable?
59:35 - Advice for the other investors
01:01:15 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 07 Feb 2024 - 1h 02min - 1340 - SI281: More Markets = Better Performance? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Today, Mark Rzepczynski joins us to reflect on how the first month of 2024 has been treating investor. We also discuss how misinformation posses a major threat to the global economy and how some managers are moving away from price as the only data input, how speed plays a role within trend following and why it is important to be aware of a manager’s "personality". Lastly, we dive deep into principal component analysis and the factors that drive trend following performance, how trading more markets may produce better returns according to new research and how diversification can come in many different forms.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:09 - What has caught our interest recently?
02:27 - Industry performance update
06:16 - Misinformation - a global threat
12:14 - The drivers of price
17:17 - Finding the optimal lookback period
22:48 - Managers have different personalities
29:53 - What makes up good trend following performance?
32:24 - Diving into principal component analysis
39:32 - More markets = better returns?
44:54 - Diversification can come in many forms
49:37 - How will trend following perform in different cycles?
54:34 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK SI281: History Shows What to Expect from Trend-Following When Rates Are Being CutLINK: Insights from AlphaSimplexCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 03 Feb 2024 - 56min - 1339 - IL23: Learning to Fail Well ft. Amy Edmondson
In this episode we talk to Amy Edmondson, Harvard Business School professor and author of the Financial Times 2023 Business Book of the Year: The Right Kind of Wrong, The Science of Failing Well.Edmondson argues we should cultivate an appetite for “intelligent failure” - events that may be painful but ultimately lead to innovation, personal growth and better relationships. This is difficult because we are hardwired to push failure “underground”, a bias that is often made worse by work cultures that punish failure in the name of accountability. Edmondson explains how we can overcome these obstacles using stories from her own life and findings from her career as a scientific researcher.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Amy on LinkedIn andRead her Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 -Introduction to Amy Edmondson
10:27 -The importance of psychological safety
15:04 -The different types of failure
18:25 -Why do we fear to fail?
22:54 -The idea of reframing
25:04 -Practicing reframing
27:06 -Has the way students work changed?
30:25 -The dark side of the performance mindset
32:40 -Integrating feedback the right way
36:16 -The Stop. Challenge. Choose Method
41:02 -The key aspect of failing well
44:48 -How can we cultivate intelligent failure?
50:35 -Conceptualizing excellence in a new way
53:33 -Encouraging openness while maintaining intellectual property
56:33 -A philosophical perspective
01:00:36- Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 31 Jan 2024 - 1h 02min - 1338 - SI280: Equities for the Long Run? ft. Alan Dunne
As we are getting closer to the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss how markets might be affected, should Trump win the election. We also answer a question from our community, in terms of how much you should consider allocating to Trend Following as part of a multi-asset portfolio and we discuss the historical differences between equity and managed futures drawdowns. Lastly, we dive into a couple of recent papers to find out whether stocks are the most optimal allocation for the long run, whether the next decade will be like the last one and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:04 - What has been on our radar recently?
03:26 - The importance of liquidity
06:39 - The global macro picture
11:52 - How will markets be affected by the presidential election?
16:10 - What about China?
21:24 - Industry performance update
24:04 - Q1, Anonymous: What would be a fair allocation to trend following in a diversified multi-asset portfolio?
32:33 - Q1.1 Anonymous: Any resources or insights to help the selection process for UCITS funds
37:29 - Equity versus managed futures drawdowns
43:10 - Stocks for the long run - really?
55:38 - Has it gone too far with the Magnificent 7's?
57:28 - The outlook of the next decade
01:02:32 -Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK SI281: History Shows What to Expect from Trend-Following When Rates Are Being CutLINK SI280: Driving with the Rear-View MirrorLINK SI280: Stocks for the Long Run?LINK SI280: Dial Up Return, Not Risk: The Z-Shift FrameworkLINK SI280: Stocks for the Long Run? Sometimes Yes, Sometimes NoLINK: Insights from AlphaSimplexCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 27 Jan 2024 - 1h 04min - 1337 - ALO20: How Will Mega Trends Shape the Economy? ft. Casey Clark
Casey Clark, President and CIO of Rockefeller Asset Management, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss the mega trends shaping the investment landscape and asset management industry over the coming years. We hear Casey’s insights on what are the key traits of great investors, how Rockefeller evaluates aspiring portfolio managers and what makes a great investment process. The conversation delves into the changing macro landscape, the implications of a positive correlation between bonds and equities for allocators and why we may see a resurgence of value investing and greater adoption of alternatives in portfolios. We also delve into ESG, the diverging trends in ESG investing in the US and Europe and how the framework of ESG leaders and improvers is key to how Rockefeller thinks about incorporating ESG into their alpha generation process.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Casey on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:45 - Introduction to Casey Clark
07:02 - How do Rockefeller Capital Management manage their assets?
10:01 - What is their investment philosophy?
12:04 - Who are their clients?
12:45 - How do they build their strategies?
14:24 - How are they setting themselves up for mega trends like AI
16:55 - What is driving the ETF growth?
17:32 - Their approach to evaluating managers
21:49 - Having the right benchmark
24:34 - What makes a good investment process?
26:08 - How do they come up with new ideas?
30:13 - Investing with ESG in mind
34:30 - A constraint or opportunity?
36:56 - Are we approaching a changing investment environment?
41:55 - How mega trends will shape the macro landscape
50:36 - A shift in the 60/40 portfolio?
54:17 - Is there a place for alternatives?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 24 Jan 2024 - 1h 00min - 1336 - SI279: Prepare for a Bumpy Landing ft. Katy Kaminski
In this episode, I'm joined by Katy Kaminski, who delves into the nuances distinguishing momentum trading from trend following, emphasizing the importance of comprehending the underlying philosophy of a trading strategy. Katy sheds light on the concept of 'pure trend' and offers insights on identifying convergent patterns within a trend following approach. We also reflect on the peculiarities of 2023, with Katy sharing her perspective on why we might be entering 'the final phase' and her expectations of a "bumpy" rather than smooth or abrupt economic transition, among other insightful topics.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:52 -A funny story from Katy
02:34 -An important shout-out
03:42 -A rare event in Denmark
06:55 -Industry performance update
08:10 -Thoughts on 2024 so far
09:42 -The difference between momentum and trend following
13:53 -Convergent vs. divergent strategies
24:08 -What does "pure trend" mean to Katy?
28:03 -What makes you a pure trend follower?
32:53 -Looking back at 2023
37:48 -An unusual year
43:22 -Discussing Katy's paper on fixed income
47:43 -How were trend models positioned in the 1960's?
51:11 -What does your position mean?
54:40 -Next big bull market in commodities?
56:10 -Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK 279: From Bears to Bulls?Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 20 Jan 2024 - 58min - 1335 - GM55: What Investors Need to Know about 2024 ft. Dave Dredge & Cem Karsan
Get ready for a powerhouse discussion as two titans of risk management, Dave Dredge and Cem Karsan, come together once again. These experts are renowned for their insights, and today, they're diving deep into what's unfolded since their last conversation and where the smart money should be in 2024. From avoiding pitfalls to uncovering lucrative opportunities, Dave and Cem have you covered. Tune in for a dynamic start to the year!
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Dave on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:37 - Looking back on our last conversation
07:55 - Are markets looking too good to be true?
14:04 - The importance of long volatility and owning convexity
24:41 - Why is volatility compression normalizing?
31:35 - A system under pressure
38:48 - How is now different to the 1970's?
42:09 - Can deglobalization be a good thing?
53:00 - Where is the debt problem going?
01:04:25 - Volatility and liquidity are opposite sides of the same coin
01:09:08 - How Dredge is carrying out volatility selling
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 17 Jan 2024 - 1h 22min - 1334 - SI278: Trend Following Risk Premium...is it there & could it go away? ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver returns to the show to discuss whether there is a risk that the Trend Following risk premium could one day disappear and how he manages exogenous and endogenous risks in a trend following system, how he thinks of trading single stocks instead of stock indices in a diversified multi-asset trend program and what the minimum lookback period would be, in order to be considered “long term”. We also discuss the irony of the newly approved crypto ETF, how the nature of bitcoin has changed and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:23 - What has caught our attention recently?
10:14 - Industry performance update
11:26 - Q1, Norbert: What is the long-term expectation for the trend-following risk premium as measured by the SG Trend Index after costs and its stability or sustainability?
19:46 -Q2, Bruno: What is Rob's method for balancing endogenous and exogenous risk management and controls in a system
29:36 - Q3, Oliver: What is Rob's take on trading single stocks instead of stock indecies in a diversified multi-asset trend program
37:57 - Q4, Critter: What would the minimum lookback period be to be considered "long term"?
41:59 - Q5, Chris: Can you share a couple names of software companies that do robust backtesting of trade strategies
45:57 - Cypto ETFs have been approved!
52:42 - Allocating to bitcoin
01:04:31 -Looking into 2024
01:08:38 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 13 Jan 2024 - 1h 10min - 1333 - OI04: Do Alternative Markets Trend Better? ft. Scott Kerson
In this episode, Moritz Seibert is by Scott Kerson, the Head of GreshamQuant. Gresham is a commodity-focused investment management firm and GreshamQuant is their systematic trading arm. In 2017, they launched the ACAR Fund, an alternative markets trend following fund with an exclusive focus on commodities. Scott and Moritz discuss why they believes alternative markets to have better trending properties and higher Sharpe ratios within a trend following context and why they refuse to trade a larger portfolio which would also include the traditional futures markets most other CTAs trade. At the end, Scott also shares his outlook on the alternative markets CTA space with us. If you’re interested in alternative markets trend following, this is a valuable episode to listen to.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Scott on LinkedIn
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - Introduction to Scott Kerson
08:27 - When did AHL Evolution start and what is it?
13:54 - What is an alternative market to Kerson and what differentiates it from other markets?
20:25 - Why an exclusive focus on commodities?
22:45 - What markets are Kerson trading and why?
24:04 - Where are the hidden gems?
26:31 - Why Kerson restrict the markets he is trading
30:37 - Maintaining a neo-classical trend approach
31:26 - A need for long-term?
33:09 - What is the capacity of the markets?
34:28 - What is the total AUM of alternative market CTAs today?
35:30 - Their core research philosophy
37:53 - The key barriers to entry
39:52 - How have they gone through 2023?
41:07 - Is there any market that stand out from the others?
43:16 - The outlook of the alternative markets CTA space
45:36 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 10 Jan 2024 - 46min - 1332 - SI277: What Will 2024 Bring? ft. Cem Karsan
Cem Karsan joins us to kick off 2024, where we discuss what lies ahead, and where we question if the reassuring inflation picture with falling prices, rising employment, and decreasing interest rates, may be a mirage. What do recent trends tell us about the outlook for 2024 and is the inflation environment the true driver of the economy? Why does Cem believe we are moving towards stagflation and what implications will this have for the economy? How has the understanding of “normal” changed over time and how will the U.S election impact 2024? And finally, Cem explains why he believes we need crises and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:30 - What has been on our radar recently?
03:02 - Industry performance update
06:15 - Q1, Rick: What are the implications and risks of the recent spike in SOFR?
11:02 -What trends have we seen recently?
16:53 - It all comes down to the inflation environment?
24:49 - Hidden dangers for the younger generation
27:29 - Soft landing + goldilocks = stagflation?
32:19 - Under the hood of inflation
34:23 - What is normal?
39:49 - How the U.S election will change the world
46:30 - Will 2024 lead to surprising moves in the ongoing conflicts?
49:59 - Looking from a bigger perspective
53:00 - Looking into the crystal ball
59:05 - Teasing for the conversation with David Dredge
01:03:58 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 06 Jan 2024 - 1h 05min - 1331 - ALO19: Managing Wealth for HNW Investors ft. Joe Prendergast
In this episode Joe Prendergast, Strategic Advisor and Head of Investment Strategy at Goodbody joins Alan Dunne to discuss the challenges and opportunities in managing wealth for HNW investors, particularly businesses owners. Joe outlines his investment philosophy and why a 50-50 allocation between growth assets and defensive assets is still at the core of his approach to proving a “peace a of mind” portfolio for investors. They discuss risk management and how to manage drawdown risk and the shortfalls of focusing too much on volatility as a risk measure when managing portfolios for private investors. They delve into the current investing backdrop, how higher interest rates have impacted asset allocation decisions and discuss why Joe is structurally more upbeat on the opportunities in public markets in the US but more optimistic on the opportunities in Europe and Asia for private equity.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Joe on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:46 -Introduction to Joe Prendergast
04:50 -Prendergast's learnings from working at Credit Suisse
07:00 -What types of portfolios are Prendergast running?
09:49 -Prendergast's investment philosophy
13:59 -How has 2022 changed the asset allocation space?
16:32 -Could we have another 2022?
18:56 -Having metrics for success
26:50 -Managing cash flow
31:43 -Shooting for a higher return
39:33 -Dealing with bumps on the road
43:48 -Prendergast's experience with the hedge fund industry
46:29 -Working as a Europe based FX investor
51:10 -Balancing attractive earnings capabilities vs a higher valuation starting point
55:13 -How Prendergast incorporates ESGs in his allocation
59:46 -Advice for other investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 03 Jan 2024 - 1h 05min - 1330 - SI276: TTU YEAR-END Special Part 2
In this second part of our TTU Year-End special, we continue our conversation by discussing the challenge of defining non-trend strategies and the criteria for a good backtest, whether trend followers can afford to stand still in terms of research. We also discuss what is next for fixed income trading and we present our outrageous predictions for 2024. Happy New Year from all of us at TopTradersUnplugged!
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on LinkedIn.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Follow Richard on Twitter.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:07 -Trend following in an unpredictable world
09:50 -What is a considered as a good backtest?
21:09 -How much change is too much change?
28:50 -Our most important lesson in 2023
36:11 -What is the next phase of the fixed income trade?
46:01 -Geopolitics and looking into 2024
55:42 -Should we go all out diversification?
01:05:14 -Outrageous predictions for 2024
01:10:32 -Happy New Year!
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 30 Dec 2023 - 1h 12min - 1329 - GM54: "Weakflation" in 2024 ft. Gregory Peters
Greg Peters joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a global fixed income perspective on the evolving macro landscape. We hear why “weakflation” may be the most likely scenario for the US economy but that a the risk of recession is three times its typical level. Greg outlines what the secular shifts in the global economy such as the end of the era of secular stagnation, a stagnating China, stickier global inflation and higher return to labour, mean for the global economy and asset markets. We discuss the recent gyrations in then bond market, how the composition of demand for US Treasuries is changing and why Greg is not overly concerned about debt sustainability for the US economy. And we delve into the outlook for emerging markets and why Greg is constructive on the outlook for EM excluding China.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:42 -Introduction to Gregory Peters
05:15 -What types of portfolios PGIM Fixed Income running?
06:28 -Peters' perspective on the state of global macro
11:44 -Peters' response to the inverted curve
15:30 -Is Peters concerned about the U.S debt?
19:36 -Japanese investors in a tough spot
22:11 -Financial repression and domestic bias
24:11 -The yield is destiny
27:28 -What range are we operating in?
28:43 -Will inflation be stickier than we expect?
33:03 -The impact of a changing globalization
35:42 -Analyzing the poor productivity numbers
38:05 -The longer term outlook of the Chinese economy
42:54 -China as a potential component in a global fixed income portfolio
44:27 -Opportunities in emerging markets
46:47 -Peters' thoughts on the central bank response function
49:13 -How would central banks respond to a worst-case scenario?
51:29 -The possibilities of recession
56:19 -Advice for other investors
57:59 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 27 Dec 2023 - 59min - 1328 - SI275: TTU YEAR-END Special Part 1
Join us for part 1 of this special edition of Systematic Investor, where we are joined by all of our wonderful co-hosts for a group conversation. In this first part, we take a look back on 2023 and discuss how the year has been treating Trend Followers and CTAs at large. We also discuss volatility trading and value of adding non-trend strategies to your trend following, the outlook of the SG Trend Index and the challenge of classifying yourself in the trend following industry. Lastly, we discuss what you are looking for in a good backtest, how to approach making changes to your model and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on LinkedIn.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Follow Richard on Twitter.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:23 - Introduction to this special edition of Systematic Investor
03:07 - Looking back on 2023 and into 2024
13:06 - Let's talk about volatility
19:42 - Volatility from a banker's perspective
25:13 - The value of non-trend strategies and smooth returns
40:40 - What is going with the SG Trend Index?
50:20 - How trend followers classify themselves
01:02:00 - End of part 1
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Fri, 22 Dec 2023 - 1h 03min - 1327 - IL22: The Fund - The Other Side of Dalio & Bridgewater ft. Rob Copeland
In this episode we talk to Rob Copeland, New York Times reporter and author of the bestselling new book: The Fund: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates and the Unravelling of a Wall Street Legend. Bridgewater is the world’s largest hedge fund and its founder, Ray Dalio, claims to run his firm based on The Principles, rules for life and work that argue for complete honesty and transparency. His most famous Principle: Pain + Reflection = Progress. But Copeland, who has covered Bridgewater for years as a Wall Street Journal reporter paints a radically different picture. Instead of encouraging truth, Copeland’s book documents a rigged feedback system that keeps Dalio permanently at the top and a culture where fear of upsetting Dalio suppresses the truth rather than encourages it. Copeland also claims that Bridgewater’s investment process is far less systematic than it claims, with Dalio ‘calling the shots’. Bridgewater strongly disputes all of these conclusions.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Rob on LinkedIn andRead his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:10 -Introduction to Rob Copeland and his book
04:37 -Copelands's relation to Ray Dalio and how the book started
09:14 -How Copeland reacted to lawsuit threats
11:03 -The logic behind the "baseball cards" concept
13:03 -How Dalio interpreted and rigged the outcome of the baseball cards
14:52 -How well known was Dalio's "rigged" rankings?
16:06 -How did Dalio's "trial" methods work?
21:03 -What can we learn from Ray Dalio's principles?
23:12 -How the MC Cycle functioned
27:55 -What is Dalio's core skill?
29:46 -Did Dalio believe in his own principles?
33:03 -Why Copeland is comfortable with his narrative about Dalio?
38:00 -Why don't we see a bigger footprint from Bridgewater in the markets?
40:57 -Did Bridgewater investors not notice?
44:30 -Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 20 Dec 2023 - 46min - 1326 - SI274: Can You Time Trend Following? ft. Nick Baltas
Today, we are joined by Nick Baltas for conversation, where we dive deep into the use of volatility scaling and accelerators in trend following systems. Additionally, we discuss various research papers that address whether trend following CTAs are truly long vol, what the negative impact of trend breaks are, whether you can predict future trend following performance by analyzing previous trend following perfomance and the art of timing trends, why it is important to sometimes settle with “good enough” performance, the future of the 60/40 portfolio and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:10- What's been on our radar recently?
05:09- Industry performance update
06:51- Q1, Nicolas: Can you replace price with sharpe and trend follow that input instead?
17:52- Q2, Andrew: Is there any validity in having additional accelerators in a system and how would it be used?
25:03 -Article: Are trend following CTAs truly long volatility?
33:26 -Article: Breaking bad trends
42:19 -Know when to be long and short
45:15 -Article: Managed futures rotation
52:40 -Sometimes good enough is good enough
57:02 -The future of the 60/40 portfolio
01:03:57 -Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
LINK 274: Are TF CTAs truly long vol?LINK 274: Breaking Bad TrendsLINK 274: Managed Futures RotationLINK 274: What Is the Future of the 60/40 Portfolio?Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 16 Dec 2023 - 1h 06min - 1325 - GAL07: Avoiding Apocalypse Through Quantum Physics & AI ft. Klee Irwin
AI is stealing the headlines with what seems like wave after wave of breakthroughs, but running parallel to this are equally rapid advancements in quantum physics and our understanding of reality. Listen in on this complex yet nuanced conversation with Klee Irwin, Founder of Quantum Gravity Research as he shares his views on physics, AI, and the accelerating course humanity finds itself on, and how it ties in to us as investors.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow David on Twitter.
Follow Klee on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:31 - Introduction to Klee Irwin
07:43 - Quantum technology and the double-slit experiment
23:53 - The retro causality experiment
26:49 - Understanding the self-simulation hypothesis
50:16 - What is going on with AI?
59:48 - Where can you follow Klee Irwin?
01:02:10 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 13 Dec 2023 - 1h 04min - 1324 - SI273: Unraveling the Mystery of Complex Adaptive Systems ft. Richard Brennan
How do you avoid overfitting, how loose is too loose in terms of loose pants and how should you approach sample sizes when designing your trading systems? What are complex adaptive systems, how do they apply to financial markets and why does regular math just not cut it? How does trend following differ from other strategies, what makes trend following so robust and what are the limitations for traditional statistics? Join us for this fascinating conversation with Richard Brennan.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:04 -What has been on our radar recently?
03:08 -Industry performance update
08:21 -Q1, Adam: In terms of loose pants, how loose is too loose?
13:36 -Trading with different models
15:42 -Adam Q2: What is a reasonable sample size in real trade observations, to compare against backtest statistics?
18:23 - A deep dive into complex adaptive systems (CAS)
20:29 - The 5 properties of CAS
25:24 - Examples of non-linearty in financial markets
30:50 - Emerging properties in financial markets
33:59 - Self organization
36:33 - Adaption and evolution
40:10 - Feedback loops
43:11 - What does CAS and trend following have in common?
49:38 - The limitations of traditional statistics
01:01:14 - Summing it all up
01:04:48 - What's next?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 09 Dec 2023 - 1h 07min - 1323 - ALO18: Asset Allocation a la carte ft. David Kelly
David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a big picture perspective on the outlook for the global economy and the implications for asset allocation. We discuss why David is upbeat on the outlook for the US economy with a key part of his optimism resting on the fact that no individual sectors appears stretched or out of balance, which is normally the case prior to a recession. The recent rise in bond yields has been a key focus in markets – we discuss what has driven this and why David is optimistic on the outlook for inflation and bonds looking ahead. We also discuss asset allocation more broadly, the outlook for the 60-40 portfolio and the longer term themes (such as the investment implications of climate change and the shift to more active industrial policy) which are addressed in JP Morgan Asset Management’s recent Long Term Capital Markets Assumptions publication.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow David on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:42 - Introduction to David Kelly
05:44 - What has become of the recession?
08:38 - Are we missing an accident?
11:09 - Why is the saving rate in the U.S. so low?
13:29 - Is this cycle unusual compared to the past?
14:52 - Are central bankers becoming arrogant?
17:15 - What happened to the bond market?
19:31 - High debt and high deficit - a new normal?
21:48 - Kelly's outlook for the next decade
23:42 - Inflation in the U.S.
27:29 - A new equilibrium
30:14 - Discussing inflation on a global scale
33:35 - The state of the asset allocation environment
35:37 - Should you look beyond the 60/40 portfolio?
39:04 - The magnificent seven
40:50 - A political mess
44:51 - How will Artificial Intelligence impact the economy?
47:55 - Managing the labour shortage
50:13 - An all-time high misery
51:36 - A discontent with the economy
53:50 - An outlook of the political landscape
56:14 - How does the shifting demographics impact the economy?
57:57 - Is an aging population disinflationary?
59:07 - Advice for investors
01:01:34 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 06 Dec 2023 - 1h 02min - 1322 - SI272: Disrupting the Asset Management Industry ft. Andrew Beer
Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer, who helps us uncover why managed futures have been struggling in 2023 and and what makes this year so different from 2022. We discuss the history of replication strategies all the way back to its origins and the intricacies of Andrew’s own replication strategy, and how disruptions have change the asset management industry and if the replicators are now facing their own competition from more pure CTA ETF offerings. We debate if Managed Futures have been "commoditized" and how the 60/40 portfolio is making a comeback this year and if 2022 was just a "fluke".
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:35 - What has caught our attention recently?
04:04 - Industry performance update
08:08 - How bad 2023 is for managed futures?
13:19 - A turn away from trend?
18:29 - Timeframe and lookback in CTA replication
27:02 - The details of Andrew's trading approach
33:01 - How increased competition impacts Andrew's trading
41:31 - How low can you go, when it comes to fees?
48:17 - The great underestimated risk
51:30 - What drives asset flows?
01:00:04 - Is 60/40 back on track?
01:07:13 - Just look at the AUM
01:11:15 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 02 Dec 2023 - 1h 14min - 1321 - OI03: The inner workings of a High-Frequency Strategy ft. Anant Jatia
Anant Jatia, the founder and CEO of Greenland Investment Management, joins Moritz Seibert for a commodities-focused conversation. In this episode, Anant explains how Greenland developed from currency market making to what today is predominantly an HFT-driven commodities arbitrage fund. Anant has a detailed understanding of the workings of physical commodity markets and focuses Greenland’s trades on location and substitution arbitrage trades. Moritz and Anant discuss several exemplary trades in detail, including sizing and portfolio implementation, and focus on the tail exposures which could materialize while the trade is active. This is a detailed and somewhat technical episode and a must-listen for anyone interested in commodities arbitrage trading.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Anant on LinkedIn
Episode TimeStamps:
02:09 -Introduction to Anant Jatia
06:39 -Anant's experience from working at AQR
08:46 -How did Anant's firm evolve over time?
10:44 -How difficult is High-Frequency Trading?
14:33 -What is their current trading strategy?
17:07 -An example of one of their trades
21:17 -Staying away from the physical side
23:33 -Tracking the market and executing trades
27:18 -Managing the cost of trades
29:58 -How did they get through the Covid19 period?
34:37 -How many markets are they trading?
36:49 -The process of trading copper
38:43 -How do you obtain transportation costs?
40:47 -Achieving the optimal trading efficiency
43:37 -A multi-legged trading strategy
47:34 -Anant's perspective on the Natural Gas markets
50:50 -Putting it all together
54:39 -Building for negative tail events
57:26 -What kind of exposure do they have?
59:17 -Key takeaways
59:58 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 29 Nov 2023 - 1h 01min - 1320 - SI271: Can Slippage be a Source of Alpha? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Today, Mark Rzepczynski and I dissect the macro rally we are experiencing at the moment. We discuss why we are seeing an increasing attention to what CTAs are doing, how survey data regarding the economy confuses investors and markets, and we address some of the most common questions that investors ask in meetings at the moment. Additionally, we discuss how explanatory depth can be applied to trend following, why it is critical to master your attention and speed of adjustment and we wrap up debating how much slippage a trend follower should expect and if slippage can be turned into a new source of alpha.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:21 -What has caught Mark's attention recently?
02:20 -Industry performance update
04:51 -What is going on in the markets?
09:01 -Reverse engineering the CTAs
11:45 -Confusion in the markets
14:38 -Are we being lied to about inflation?
20:24 -Mixed signals
22:14 -What are investors asking in meetings at the moment?
25:33 -Modeling with personality
32:25 -Losers create diversification
36:13 -Things that are often being forgotten
38:15 -Narratives and explanatory depth
47:04 -Are short-term models better than longer-term models?
50:34 -Does new = better?
56:42 -Getting the backtest and transactions costs right
59:31 -Don't overstep your capacity
01:01:29 -Minimizing slippage
01:04:23 -What is a reasonable level of slippage
01:06:48 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 25 Nov 2023 - 1h 08min - 1319 - GM53: The Misdiagnosis of the Global Economy ft. Dario Perkins
Dario Perkins joins Alan Dunne in this episode for an insightful and thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Dario outlines how many economists and strategists misdiagnosed the global economy coming into 2023 by assuming it was in a typical business cycle which was not the case. The conversation delves into the subtle structural shifts which are underway in the global economy including a shift higher in inflation with 2% now a floor whereas previously it was a ceiling, the shift towards more active industrial policy and the politically driven changing super cycle away from neoliberalism. What this points to is greater volatility in inflation, a secular bear market in bonds, a more positive outlook for value versus growth and a shift in the bond equity correlation as stagflationary episodes are more frequent.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Dario on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:29 - Introduction to Dario Perkins
07:18 - Why is this cycle so different?
12:27 - Where are we now?
17:40 - Have we seen the full extent of the cycle?
23:16 - How is Europe vulnerable to the tightening from ECB?
26:37 -A sticky inflation
28:35 - Why have we seen a big jump in bond yields?
32:52 -A concern for real-estate?
38:03 - What is the next decade going to look like?
46:21 -Are central bankers bluffing?
51:15 - Will there be limits to physical policy?
59:11 -The outlook for asset allocation and currencies
01:03:42 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 22 Nov 2023 - 1h 04min - 1318 - SI270: CPI, Trend Reversals & Dalio on US-China War ft. Alan Dunne
Today, we are joined by Alan Dunne for a wide ranging conversation, covering pressing global macro issues, the latest trend following research, JP Morgan's outlook for the 60/40 portfolio, following a week dominated by the release of the CPI numbers. We discuss how and why Ray Dalio believes the hot war between the US and China is changing and why the US is seeing an unusually low savings rate at the moment and why Alan believes there are plenty of possibilities in the non-trend space. We also discuss the benefits that trend following can add to your portfolio, how Blackstone is boosting the leverage in one of its Credit Funds...and if this seems like a good idea and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:08 - What has been on our radar recently?
09:44 - Industry performance update
15:33 - A new war in sight?
21:17 - News about the US savings rate
23:54 - A positive outlook for productivity?
30:13 - CFM paper on the benefit of non-trend strategies
41:57 - J.P. Morgan paper on the outlook of the 60/40 portfolio
50:28 - Quantica paper on trend vs global tactical asset allocation
58:12 - FT article on Blackstone borrowing to boost lending power
01:03:35 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 18 Nov 2023 - 1h 05min - 1317 - OI02: Are QI Strategies Sustainable? ft. Maia Mathieson & Faheem Osman
Maia Mathieson and Faheem Osman, both Managing Directors at Macquarie Bank in London speak with Moritz Seibert about the bank’s growing Quantitative Investment Strategies (QIS) business and how their rules-based indices can help investors to efficiently access various risk premium strategies across asset classes. Maia and Faheem explain the key return drivers behind their commodity-focused strategies, for example curve carry and congestion, and explain why they believe these to be structurally sustainable. We also discuss their client base and how the Macquarie QIS team focuses on designing robust indices that are not curve-fit to historical data.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Maia on LinkedIn
Follow Faheem on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - Introduction to Maia & Faheem
08:48 - What are the most popular return drivers?
11:35 -What is driving carry trading?
15:10 - When does carry trading stop working?
17:23 - Combing strategies for more diversification
20:26 - Why does the volatility carry factor exist in the commodity space?
22:52 - How do they have an advantage over their competitors?
24:40 - What is their core client base?
28:38 - How are they giving their clients an edge?
30:25 - Concerns about the commodity space
32:30 - How they analyze and validate their work
36:23 -A long term strategy
40:01 - How have they evolved over time?
43:20 -A changing landscape?
46:54 -A move towards machine learning and AI
48:59 - Learning from other asset classes
51:36 -An increased interest in non-standard commodity markets
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 15 Nov 2023 - 56min - 1316 - SI269: Is the Big Bond Short Over? ft. Katy Kaminski
Today’s conversation with Katy Kaminiski is all about change. We discuss what has been the driver of the changing economic environment that we experience and how changing interest rates affect trend followers, why Katy believes we need a repricing in long term yields and how the yield curve is a key factor in trend followers profitability. Katy also explains her outlook for the markets, how you build portfolios in the current economic environment and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy onLinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - What has been on Katy's radar recently?
04:24 - A precursor for the conversation
05:21 - Industry performance update
07:19 - Katy's trend following perspective
11:40 - Discussing Katy's paper, "The Short of Shorting Bonds"
16:06 - The results of the paper
21:12 - Why the shape of the yield curve makes a difference
24:52 - Why trend followers make more money when the yield curve is inverted
26:59 - Does higher rates always mean you have to be short bonds?
33:15 - Do you earn interest on the money that are put up for margin?
35:12 - Where are we in the markets right now?
37:26 - The forecasting behaviour is difficult to change
42:52 - Different people, different perspectives
46:39 - Doing what happens next
48:12 - Best practices when analyzing the data
54:54 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sun, 12 Nov 2023 - 56min - 1315 - GM52: The Re-Emergence of the Bond Vigilantes ft. Ed Yardeni
Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist at Yardeni Research joins us today to discuss the re-emergence of the bond vigilantes, a term Ed coined four decades ago. We discuss why bond investors are pushing up long-term bond yields and what are the prospects are for a debt crisis in the US. Ed outlines his view that we may see “rolling recessions” rather than a sharp economic downturn but that he has recently increased his probability of a hard landing. We examine the parallels between the current cycle and the past, particularly the 1990s and discuss whether the recent improvement can be sustained over the medium term and what it means for equity markets.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 -Introduction to Ed Yardini
07:07 -Why has the economics profession got it wrong again?
11:06 -What should we feel the maximum impact of the tightening?
14:43 -Why are we seeing a change in bond yields?
19:18 -Are we spiralling into a crisis?
25:19 -The outlook for the debt crisis
29:08 -Will AI save us?
32:22 -Analysing productivity and growth
36:05 -Learning from history - what is different this time?
41:40 -The baby boom generation - inflationary or deflationary?
44:06 -China and Japan being deflationary?
45:23 -Are emerging markets benefitting from deglobalization?
47:50 -The outlook for equities
52:14 -The U.S vs the rest
53:32 -Advice for new investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 08 Nov 2023 - 56min - 1314 - SI268: Are Investors Wrongly Positioned for the New World Order? ft. Cem Karsan
Cem Karsan returns to help us uncover the art of tail hedging and whether he views the January 2024 OpEx as a possible inflection point and start of a new bear market. We discuss the latest events in the macro space, especially regarding the conflict in the Middle East, and how it impacts markets, why Niels believes we are probably heading towards a world where investors are completely wrongly positioned and why it is important to think differently when it comes to asset allocation. Lastly, Cem explains how the incoming holiday season acts as a volatility compression mechanism, what he took away from the recent CBOE RMC Conference and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:08 -What has been on Cem's radar recently?
03:15 -Industry performance update
05:25 -Q1, Tim: What systematic strategies would Cem suggest for hedging risk from a risk premia strategy with a trend following bias?
12:20 -Q2, Rick: Does Cem view the Jan 2024 OpEx as a possible inflection point (to the downside)?
15:52 -What is new in the macro space?
23:16 -Is the MOVE index behaving as it should?
27:43 -Is Japan a joker when it comes to interest rates?
32:17 -Hidden dangers?
36:12 -Wars - a driver of spending, deficits and inflation
40:28 -What current Flows are telling us
45:48 -Cem's takeaways from the CBOE RMC Conference
01:02:33 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 04 Nov 2023 - 1h 04min - 1313 - OI1: Cracking the Code of Commodity Spread Trading ft. Mauritz van den Worm
You are invited to an eye-opening conversation with Mauritz van den Worm, a quant researcher at Polarstar, a commodities-focused hedge fund in Cape Town, South Africa, hosted by Moritz Seibert. In this inaugural episode of the Open Interest series, Mauritz takes us on a journey through the fascinating world of commodity spreads. We explore not only calendar spreads but also delve into cross-market substitution spreads, location arbitrage trades, and processing margin spreads.
Discover how PolarStar navigates the intricate South African commodity markets and the critical role they play in their portfolio. Additionally, Mauritz shares an intriguing firsthand account of PolarStar's position in the US versus European grain spreads at the onset of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Learn how a simultaneous limit-up in the US and limit-down in Europe led to what Mauritz humorously refers to as "a few gray hairs." This is a must-listen for anyone intrigued by the complexities and strategies behind commodity trading.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Mauritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:09 -Introduction to the new series
03:28 -Introduction to Mauritz van den Worm and PolarStar Management
09:53 -A deep dive into the South African market
16:26 -What kind of trader is Polar Star Management?
19:55 -Entering and exiting trades
23:37 -How PolarStar Management establishes and analyzes trades
30:53 -How PolarStar uses data
33:39 -Different kinds of maize (corn)
35:07 -How you size a spread within a portfolio
39:39 -The role and importance of storage
45:14 -Adjusting for seasonality
47:06 -Looking back on the last 2 years
49:47 -Why did traders not want European wheat?
55:46 -What happened to the wheat market?
56:58 -How tough is the commodity space?
59:16 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 01 Nov 2023 - 1h 00min - 1312 - SI267: A Masterclass in Absolute vs Cross Sectional Momentum ft. Richard Brennan
In today’s episode, Richard Brennan takes us on a tour around the Australian economy and how the investment landscape is changing. We also discuss how different investment philosophies demand different interpretations and why the “one size fits all” approach does not exist, how cross-sectional momentum differs from absolute momentum. Lastly, we discuss why Richard uses an ensemble of trend following systems and why he always strives for maximum diversification, and why I feel we should not introduce divisiveness in the trend following industry and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:04 -What is happening in Australia at the moment?
07:53 -The investment landscape is changing
09:57 -Best UCITS Managed Futures Fund revealed
13:17 -Industry performance update
16:25 -Why does OJ keep rising?
19:54 -There is no "one size fits all" approaches
26:44 -How does cross-sectional momentum work?
31:12 -The importance of correlation
40:26 -Nuancing "treating all markets equally"
48:00 -The use of continuous signals
53:03 -How does absolute momentum works?
59:13 -Discussing sample size
01:01:30 - The principle of no selection bias
01:04:16 - Why Rich uses traditional risk measures
01:06:56 - Letting profits run to their conclusion
01:08:03 - Single asset level risk vs portfolio level risk
01:08:59 - Releasing the risk steam
01:10:37 - Using simple models
01:13:46 - Trend following - not so black and white?
01:22:45 - Thanks for hanging in there
01:24:11 - What's up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 28 Oct 2023 - 1h 26min - 1311 - ALO17: Inflation, Volatility, and AI: Ruffer's Bold Market Insights ft. Matt Smith
Today we are joined by Matt Smith, Investment Director at Ruffer for a fascinating discussion on global markets, asset allocation and how history can guide us in the current global macro landscape. Matt explains why Ruffer is defensively positioned at the moment, why he is sceptical of the AI rally in stocks in recent months and where is he sees opportunity in markets at the moment. We discuss the secular outlook for inflation and why Matt believes we sill see greater volatility and a trend higher in inflation over time and what that means for asset allocation. We also delve into the parallels between the current investing and global macro environment versus the past particularly the period between 1940 and 1970 and hear about some of the key books that have influenced Matt as an investor.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Matt on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:54 -Introduction to Matt Smith
07:51 -The resilience of the economy
11:50 -Matt's portfolio construction process
16:23 -Skepticism about the goldilocks
21:57 -The outlook for inflation
30:56 -The risk and fear of structural inflation
40:27 -What we can learn from history
46:19 -The process of finding insights from history
51:09 -Matt's perspective on financial repression
54:57 -Advice for other investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 25 Oct 2023 - 59min - 1310 - SI266: Constructing and Assessing Trading Strategies ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver is back this week speaking with Alan Dunne about constructing and assessing trend following and non-trend following trading strategies. We delve into mean reversion strategies and over what time frames they might be effective and what are the pitfalls in trying to combine trend following with mean reversion. We also discuss the theory and reality of the benefits of faster trend following, Rob’s experience of this and his approach avoiding over-fitting when constructing trading strategies. We wrap up with some thoughts on AHL’s Trend ETF and how a strategy trading 20 markets might perform versus a more diversified program.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:00 -Update on recent events?
09:13 -Industry performance update
09:38 -Why is it going so well for Rob?
12:15 -The ongoing debate on term premia
17:40 -Returns in bonds versus equities
21:13 -Q1, Andrej: What's your take on systematic strategies complimenting trend?
35:22 -Q2, Harry: Can you speak about the lure of high frequency strategies for traders with modest capital?
40:46 - The challenges of fast trend following
42:15 - Trading with different account sizes
45:07 - Q3, Ravi: Techniques to prevent overfitting of a strategy
51:45 - Using boot strapping
52:42 - Q4.1, Tommy: What's your take on the AHL trend ETF?
59:20 - Q4.2, Tommy: Which scenarios do you expect equities and trend to be highly correlated?
01:01:12 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 21 Oct 2023 - 1h 02min - 1309 - GAL6: UAPs - What Are We Really Dealing With? ft. Larry Hancock
There is no secret more carefully guarded than that of how to make atomic weapons. Nuclear technology can power us with clean energy or destroy all of human civilization. It has been alleged for decades that there is a correlation between UAP encounters and nukes, a suggestion that seems intuitive because if an advanced civilization was monitoring us, any breakthroughs in nuclear physics would certainly represent a key developmental milestone. In this episode join our Galactic Macro series host David Dorr as he interviews Larry Hancock, one of the preeminent scientific investigators into UAPs and the co-author of UAP Pattern Recognition Study 1945-1975 US Military Warfare Complex and UAP Indications Analysis, 1945-1975 United States Atomic Warfare Complex. Larry gives us a sobering analysis of the data and the facts which make it clear that we are not alone.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow David on Twitter.
Buy Larry's books here.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:27 -Introduction to Larry Hancock
05:34 -How classified programs work in the U.S
13:23 -Has the Air Force lied about UAP observations?
17:09 -UAP activity around nuclear technology
22:33 -What are "they" interested in?
24:03 -The physics of UAPs
29:35 -Are UAP crashes real?
34:19 -The unusualness of the UAP Disclosure Act
38:50 -Are UAP encounters increasing?
46:53 -What are we dealing with?
52:09 -Are we getting closer or further from disclosure?
57:19 -Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 18 Oct 2023 - 59min - 1308 - SI265: Deep Dive Into Non-Trend Complementary Strategies ft. Nick Baltas
Nick Baltas is back this week to talk about the use of non-trend strategies in diversified managed futures portfolios. What is the rationale for the existence of a carry risk premia? How durable are the returns? What are some of the key thing things to keep in mind implementing a carry strategy? These are some of the questions we discuss as we deep dive into the use of carry alongside trend following. We also discuss reversion strategies and how skewness plays a part in their construction. And we discuss how all of these strategies may relate to the fact that the investment world may now be in the midst of what Howard Marks calls a Sea Change, driven by higher bond yields.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:48 -What has caught our attention in markets?
04:08 -Construction portfolios with non-trend complimentary strategies
09:59 -What is driving non-trend strategies like carry?
17:28 -Adding carry to trend
22:52 -How to use utility functions
25:08 -Defining the variables
28:09 -Advice for implementing a carry strategy
36:22 -Nick's perspective on reversion strategies
40:21 -Moving beyond single stocks
47:48 -Skewness in commodities
54:30 -How climate change impacts investment strategies
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 14 Oct 2023 - 1h 03min - 1307 - ALO16: Beyond 60-40... A Bold Approach to Asset Allocation ft. Troy Gayeski
Troy Gayeski, Chief Market Strategist for FS Investments, joins us today to discuss asset allocation and investment opportunities in today’s higher yield environment. We discuss how higher interests rates are impacting the risk and reward across capital markets and why higher interest rates mean equity valuations may be stretched at the current juncture. We discuss how asset allocation has evolved from the 60-40 benchmark to a 40-30-30 allocation for many institutional investors with a 30% allocation to alternatives. We delve into where Troy sees opportunities within alternatives particularly in real estate, private equity, secondaries and liquid alternatives given his view that we are late in the economic cycle.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Troy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:44 - Introduction to Troy Gayeski
11:36 - A top-down macro perspective
19:43 - The state of the 60/40 portfolio
26:37 - How do investors react to the interest rate?
30:47 - Analyzing the alt space
35:50 - Advice for allocating to real estate
40:00 - An overweight of privates?
44:02 - A mockdown in valuations - an unfolding process or mostly done?
46:30 - Opportunities and positioning in the liquid space
52:42 - Building a diversified liquid alts portfolio
55:09 - Is old school global macro still viable?
57:15 - Troy's perspective on AI tools
01:00:25 -Advice for other investors
01:02:54 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 11 Oct 2023 - 1h 04min - 1306 - SI264: The Evolution of the Trend Following Industry ft. Andrew Beer & Alan Dunne
Andrew Beer joins us to discuss a recent research report from Morningstar (called Market Wizards Wave Their Wands but Investors Miss the Magic) which highlights the challenges investors have in timing managed futures allocations. We get Andrew’s perspective on the evolution of the managed futures industry, particularly the evolving ETF and UCITS markets and discuss whether the CTA industry is on the road to commoditisation. We wrap up discussing a recent FT article which suggests more attractive hedge fund manager may underperform…but may be more successful in raising assets.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Andrew Beer on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:04 - What's been on our radar recently?
06:02 - A growing appetite for trend following?
10:45 - Who is to blame?
15:03 - Commoditization in managed futures
20:16 - Is commoditization the "right" word?
21:38 - The best way to express an equity value strategy
25:05 - How the SG Trend Index has evolved over time
30:10 - The evolution of the trend following industry
37:01 - A case of market segmentation?
40:00 - Are ETFs the future?
46:27 - Managed futures and trend following in Europe
52:24 - A discussion on fees
54:54 - Capacity - a reason for concern?
58:59 - The Alpha of Ugliness
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 07 Oct 2023 - 1h 01min - 1305 - GM51: Allocating Assets when Goldilocks Inverse ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann
Goldman Sachs Head of Asset Allocation Research, Christian Mueller-Glissmann shares his current investment framework with Cem Karsan and I today. It's an important conversation as it touches on so many of the most important questions that investors, individual as well as institutional, are faced with right now. How we as investors should allocate our capital taking into account the ever changing Global Macro regimes was fascinating to explore, with one of the sharpest thinkers on this topic. Like Cem and I, you will be impressed with the depth of research and knowledge that Christian shared in our conversation.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Christian on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:33- Introduction to Christian Mueller-Glissmann
04:05- The global macro perspective
08:13- The changing relationship between stocks and bonds
12:25- Structural and cyclical issues
21:35- Is this inflation different?
28:15- The lag of structural effects
32:04- The age of abundance
36:45- Time to shift back to active management
43:10- The introduction of derivatives and how it affects the economy
52:21- A move away from bonds and how it will affect us
01:00:06- Does the interest cycle exist?
01:00:52- The Dynamic Balanced Bear
01:03:21- Final thoughts
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 04 Oct 2023 - 1h 04min - 1304 - SI263: Changes aren't permanent, but change is ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Q3 is behind us, and we take stock of how is the trend following industry holding up? Is passthrough fees becoming a problem for investors in the multi-strategy space? Do we still have a bubble economy? Have we lost our imagination of what can happen in the economy? And why is it important to understand psychology when building models? Join us for this fascinating conversation with Mark Rzepczynski where we discuss this, and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:09 -What's on Mark's radar righ now?
07:25 -Multi-strategies and passthrough fees
19:13 -Industry performance update
22:28 -How is the industry holding up?
25:47 -Big moves in the commodity space
28:55 -Performance numbers
30:02 -The more things change, the more they stay the same
41:04 -Imagine the unimaginable
46:42 -How psychology impacts markets
53:45 -When and when not to be a trend follower
59:49 -A chronological snobbery?
01:04:03 -Important announcement
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 30 Sep 2023 - 1h 06min - 1303 - GM50: A Century of Disorder ft. Helen Thompson
Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Professor Helen Thompson of Cambridge University, author of Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century, as we take a big picture perspective on the current global macro landscape. A key focus of Helen’s work is the role of energy markets in understanding global macro developments and we delve into Europe’s energy dependence on Russia. We hear about the factors which enabled Europe avoid an energy shortage in the winter of 2022 but why energy markets remain a risk factor for the Eurozone economy. We discuss the shift towards more proactive industrial policy in the US, what is driving it and how it relates to deglobalization. We also discuss China, its economic challenges and its evolving role in the Middle East and whether the global economy is truly fragmenting into distinct trading blocs. We get Helen’s perspective on the US dollar’s reserve status and why the US’s role in the international monetary order is as strong as ever and get her thoughts on the next year’s US presidential election.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:36 -Introduction to Helen Thompson
06:31 -Why did she write her book, "Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century"?
10:15 -The outlook for Europe's oil and gas dependency
17:23 -A longer-term structural challenge?
21:21 -A rebirth of the industrial policy
25:39 -Deglobalization - how real is it?
29:31 -What has caused the roll-back of globalization?
34:13 -When will we see a shift back to disciplined physical policies?
37:49 -Is the secular stagnation behind us?
42:06 -Should we expect more frequent spikes in oil prices?
44:25 -The shifting Saudi-US relationship - a potential risk?
48:35 -A challenged dollar?
53:16 -Is this time different?
57:38 -The civil discontent in the U.S.
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 27 Sep 2023 - 1h 02min - 1302 - SI262: Opportunities in FX fueled by the FED ft. Alan Dunne
Tune in for this week’s trend following conversation with Alan Dunne, where we discuss Barry Eichengreen’s paper on living with high public debt and how the high level of debt can be addressed, the relationship between interest rates and GDP, how Forex trading have evolved over time and why it is having a renaissance at the moment. We also discuss return expectations in markets and diversified strategies and Alan reports what he experienced from a recent investor event in Paris.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:57 -What has been on Alan's radar recently?
04:55 -Industry performance update
08:16 -Living with high public debt
20:27 -Other investors' view on the high level of debt
24:10 -How the trading of FX markets have evolved
32:58 -Do you need specialists to trade markets?
37:45 -China imposing trading restrictions?
40:36 -Where returns may go from here?
48:49 -High interest rates not beneficial for high leverage strategies?
51:05 -Inside knowledge from Paris Investor event
59:11 -Alan to host upcoming Systematic Investor episodes
01:00:29 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 23 Sep 2023 - 1h 02min - 1301 - IL21: How China Manages Their FX Reserves ft. Zongyuan Zoe Liu
In this episode we lift the veil on China’s often secretive system for managing its multi-trillion dollar holdings of foreign assets. Guiding us through the discussion is Dr. Zhongyuan Zoe Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Dr. Liu spent years researching financial reports and conducting in-person interviews with those involved in running China’s multiple “Sovereign Leveraged Funds”. We discuss how they evolved, what purposes they serve for the Communist party and why other countries may soon follow China’s lead. The interview is based on Dr. Liu’s new book: How The Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Zongyuan onTwitterand Read her Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:52 - Sebastien’s journey into the investment management industry
07:45 - How Sebastien’s book came about
19:43 - Investing in a rising interest rate environment
24:06 - Responding to unexpected regime shifts in the markets
33:24 - Defining and achieving utility maximisation
37:48 - The merits and drawbacks of mean variance analysis
58:51 - The durability of treasury bonds
01:05:18 - Lessons from research on high performance individuals and teams
01:07:58 - Achieving a state of ‘flow’
01:10:58 - Simplifying complex financial topics
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 20 Sep 2023 - 59min - 1300 - SI261: The Biggest Story in Asset Allocation ft. Nick Baltas
Today Nick Baltas and I embark on a journey through the shifting tides of investment strategy. For decades, equities have reigned supreme as the primary source of portfolio returns, while bonds played a crucial role as diversifiers. But over the past two decades, something intriguing has happened, and the dynamic between these two asset classes has evolved in ways we've never seen before. Stay tuned as we unravel the fascinating story of this transformation and explore what it means for modern investors. We also discuss what a leading Trend Follower describes as what really determins absolute returns in a trend following strategy...and you may be surprised of what it is.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:07 - What has caught Nick's attention recently?
03:02 - Industry performance update
04:30 - Q1, Corey: If an investor is heavily weighed equities, are they better off with trend following providers that don't include equities as one of the utilized asset classes
10:31 - How model portfolios can benefit from trend following
19:02 -A Changing Stock-Bond Correlation (AQR Paper)
23:50 - How structural inflation can impact the stock-bond correlation
27:46 - Illiquid alternatives and commodities as diversifiers
35:27 - Significant shifts in the asset allocation space
38:14 - Is cash better than bonds?
41:40 - Paper from Transtrend
47:15 - What really drives the absolute return in a trend following portfolio
52:23 - Network Momentum across Asset Classes (Oxford-Man Institute paper)
57:08 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 16 Sep 2023 - 59min - 1299 - GM49: Unveiling the Power of Confidence ft. Peter Atwater
Join us for a captivating episode where we delve into the hidden influence of confidence in our decision-making. Discover why seemingly unprecedented events are often predictable with the right insights. Peter Atwater provides an accessible framework for understanding confidence, helping us navigate uncertainty and lack of control. Our conversation delves into how confidence impacts politics and the economy, as well as how we can nurture confidence in the younger generation to face life's challenges with resilience. Tune in to gain valuable perspectives on the role of confidence in shaping our world.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:04 -What does confidence mean to Peter?
04:38 -The feeling of vulnerability
06:19 -Being in the present
07:57 -Understanding the confidence map
12:08 -How to become confident
13:32 -Peter's advice for the younger audience
17:02 -Having confidence is not a constant
17:48 -Learnings from a traumatic experience
21:23 -Map it out
22:33 -Why is sentiment changing so quickly?
28:05 -The generational shift
30:49 -Is crypto the new Woodstock?
36:15 -Is the Fed losing the confidence of the markets?
42:57 -When does panic occur?
44:28 -Does it apply to markets as well?
48:34 -Thoughts on the current political situation
56:51 -Addressing major societal problems
02:03:56 -The challenges of fake news and media
02:06:14 - Process - an underrated advantage?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 13 Sep 2023 - 1h 13min - 1298 - SI260: The Voldemort of the Asset Management Business ft. Andrew Beer
Is the economy actually doing better than we expected? This week we are joined by Andrew Beer, where we discuss the use of replication strategies in the current economic environment and how many markets/factors you should include, how managers can differentiate themselves from each other and the outlook for growth in the CTA industry. We also discuss the challenges of the Lemming effect in investing and today’s obsession with multi-strategy hedge funds, the capacity of the trend following industry and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:20 - What has happened recently?
05:51 - Industry performance update?
07:13 - Are managed futures funds are right for replication?
13:55 - How did they test it?
17:23 - Are economies becoming less synchronised?
25:02 - How many markets are enough for replication?
29:01 - Why are people going into alternative markets?
32:58 - Have managers become more different or similar?
41:02 - Industry disruptions - how is Andrew different?
47:22 - Why CTA assets will be much higher in 10 years
54:44 - How Andrew resist making changes to his replication strategy
56:54 - Train wreck in hedge fund land
01:04:02 -How do multi-strat funds manage their expenses?
01:08:25 -The challenges of the industry
01:14:21 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 09 Sep 2023 - 1h 16min - 1297 - GAL05: Pumping the BRICS Agenda & Hidden Risks ft. Nelson Rangel
In this episode we are joined by a true Macro thinker, Nelson Rangel, CIO at Raven Capital. Nelson walks us through his fascinating lens of the world evolved from his formative career years where his mentors taught him chaos theory and quantitative analysis. The conversation delves in to global conflict, adapting to social media information flows, and the challenges of finding investment value in LATAM markets. Be sure to stick around to the very end where Nelson leaves us with a cliff hanger as he reveals the beginning of his three part investment framework to interpret the impact of human contact with more advanced civilizations!
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Nelson on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:32 -Introduction to Nelson Rangel
08:09 -Takeaways from being exposed to chaos theory
12:29 -A look around the globe
17:37 -Reflecting on the U.S debt
21:17 -How is the next decade unfolding for China?
25:29 -The BRICs taking over the monetary system
30:38 -Who is behind the manipulation of narrative on social media?
34:58 -Being adaptable to new scenarios
39:26 -Advice for investing in South America
48:14 -News about UAPs (UFOs)
56:24 -Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 06 Sep 2023 - 58min - 1296 - SI259: Trend Following & the New Normal ft. Katy Kaminski
Today, we welcome Katy Kaminski to the Systematic Investor Series, as we dive deep into trend following systems and how to overcome the unintended biases that can creep into CTA systems, why Katy believes everybody has to “go back to the drawing board”, why it is unrealistic to expect things to go back to “normal”, and why Katy believes we are not in a crisis but rather a correction. We also discuss how a crisis is in the eye of the beholder and shed light on the current global macro narrative. We round things off uncovering why Katy believes bonds are mispriced, why "simple" trend following strategies persist to thrive and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:16 - What has caught our attention recently?
03:43 - Industry performance update
06:06 - The challenge of bias in trend following systems
13:54 - Taking the bonds out?
16:22 - Advice on trading universal parameters
19:35 - Going back to normal - a fantasy?
23:35 - Trend following - a long divergence strategy
26:31 - Are we actually in a crisis?
32:05 - Are crises becoming shorter and shorter?
36:38 - How does Katy define a crisis?
37:40 - A different understanding of trend following?
40:32 - Are there different types of crises?
45:55 - A global macro perspective
51:38 - Are bonds mispriced?
55:37 - From predictable to unpredictable inflation
59:11 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 02 Sep 2023 - 1h 01min - 1295 - GM48: Resilient Growth BUT Economic Downturn Ahead ft. Chen Zhao
Chen Zhao, co-founder and Chief Global Strategist at Alpine Macro joins us today to outline why growth has been resilient in 2023 but why he sees deflation and an economic downturn as a rising risk as we move into in 2024. We hear why the best global macro trades are the hardest to hold and why he believes long fixed income is the best trade at the moment. We discuss the long term outlook for growth and inflation in the major economies and hear why Chen is dismissive of the idea that deglobalisation and the greening of the global economy may be inflationary forces going forward. We also discuss investment opportunities in Japan and emerging markets and hear why Chen is concerned about the macro outlook in China but sees value in the local stock market.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Chen on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:13 -Who is Chen Zhao?
06:19 -Why has the economy been so resilient?
11:20 -The typical electoral cycle?
16:44 -The outlook for inflation
19:27 -Concerns about stagflation - valid or not?
26:07 -Rates going back to zero?
28:48 -Achieving high sustained investment growth
31:01 -The effect of moving towards climate friendly production
32:57 -China - a deflationary force
38:38 -Bond yields - any surprises?
39:29 -Concerns about the U.S. debt dynamics?
42:07 -Have yields reached their peak?
42:54 -The situation in Europe
45:20 -Back to the 2010s?
46:36 -A global increase in spending?
47:37 -Concerns from a global risk perspective
51:00 -The Japanese economy
52:35 -The outlook for emerging markets
54:45 -Advice for other traders
55:59 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 30 Aug 2023 - 57min - 1294 - SI258: Absolute Momentum in a Chaotic Environment ft. Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan is back to discuss the lurking uncertainty in the economy and take a deep dive into absolute momentum. What is it, how is it used and how does it relate to trend following? How does complex systems really function and evolve over time and what role does correlation play in system design? And financial markets is in fact chaotic systems, then how do predictive modellers trade them? Is there an edge from price following techniques in their ability to trade in highly complex and sometimes chaotic environment? Why noise is not as random as it might occur, how risk should be calculated in complex systems and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:31 - What has happened since last conversation?
08:04 - Industry perfomance update
14:08 - Q1, Correy: If an investor is heavily weighed equities, as most are, are they better off with trend following providers that don't include equities as one of the utilized asset classes?
20:06 -A deep dive into absolute momentum
30:30 -Different implementations, same results
45:47 -The role of correlation
50:56 -Calculating risk in complicated systems
01:14:10 - The weakness of the Sharpe Ratio
01:21:04 - Know your manager well
01:24:19 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 26 Aug 2023 - 1h 26min - 1293 - IL20: How to Survive the Current Fourth Turning ft. Neil Howe
Best-selling author and renowned historian Neil Howe joins the show to talk about his New York Times’ bestselling book The Fourth Turning Is Here. Neil believes history moves in generational cycles that last about the length of one long human life. Each cycle has four eras - Turnings - that always arrive in the same order and last about twenty years. We are now midway through a Fourth Turning which is a time of exceptional upheaval and conflict. Previous Fourth Turnings happened during the Great Depression and WWII, the American Civil War and the American Revolution. The good news is a society that successfully navigates a Fourth Turning emerges reborn - more equal, more optimistic and more united. We discuss the implications of this era for financial markets, why it will be the Millennial generation that leads us through the coming conflict and what will characterize the world that emerges afterwards.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Neil on Twitter and Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:15 - Introduction to Neil Howe
03:43 - What characterise each turning?
17:53 -A generation cliff
25:18 -The importance of the financial crisis in 2008
27:55 - Cycles are non linear
30:08 - Every crisis has a catalyst
35:56 -A polarised and divided world
41:29 - Can conflict bring us together?
48:30 -The outlook for war and conflict
52:12 -A millennial revolution
58:18 - Will boomers give up?
01:07:48 - How will society change?
01:19:57 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 23 Aug 2023 - 1h 22min - 1292 - SI257: Preparing for a Volatile Future ft. Cem Karsan
Cem Karsan joins us for a wide ranging conversation where we discuss the current volatility environment and if vol trading can actually be predictable, the current Fourth Turning and how this will impact the level of volatility and where Cem’s outlook differ from Neil Howe's, why demographics is “destiny” and the current tug of war between flows and macro. We also discuss why Cem is watching NASDAQ so closely and the historic rotations that are happening in markets at the moment, why Cem believes it is important to “be water” and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:56 -What has caught Cem's attention recently?
03:14 -Volatility and seasonal patterns
08:27 -Industry performance update
09:34 -Is vol trading predictable?
17:15 -Why are vol spikes becoming shorter?
20:19 -Cem's take on the fourth turning
33:12 -Why is demographics so critical today?
39:04 -A tug of war between flows and macro
50:28 -A new all time high for stocks?
52:07 -Major moves in markets
01:00:58 -Too bullish too soon?
01:03:03 -Be flexible, be water
01:06:07 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 19 Aug 2023 - 1h 08min - 1291 - GM47: Is the Economy Actually Doing Better Than Expected? ft. Peter Berezin
Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist and Research Director at BCA Research joins us today for a wide ranging discussion on the outlook for global economy and global capital markets. We hear why Peter has been more upbeat than the consensus on the outlook for the US economy but why he continues to believe that the outlook is for recession next year. He outlines why US stocks may continue to make gains in the near term but the outlook is much more challenging on a five-year view. We discuss his Kinked Philips Curve framework for analysing the economy and why that continues to point to declining inflation in the near term. We also discuss the outlook for China, the renminbi, the yen and global emerging markets.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:15 - Introduction to Peter Berezin
05:35 - The current state of the U.S economy
10:14 - Where is inflation heading?
16:24 -A wrong prediction?
20:23 - How will markets be impacted by AI and new tech?
24:39 - How has the economy withstood higher rates?
27:10 - What does Peter's models show us?
31:32 - Challenges in the credit space
33:33 - The implications of high valuations
36:08 - Potential weaknesses in the system
40:45 - Looking outside of the U.S.
44:43 - The outlook for currencies
47:03 - Emerging markets and the geopolitical situation in China
49:43 - How is Asia holding up?
52:08 -Are we going to see changes in the inflation target?
56:21 - The big picture view over the next decade
58:23 -Advice for new investors
59:37 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 16 Aug 2023 - 1h 00min - 1290 - SI256: Investor Behaviour & the How to Deal with Transaction Costs ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski is back to tackle some important topics relating to systematic trading. We discuss whether there is a best time of the year to trade and what has been driving the markets recently, how high interest rates and uncertainty affect investor behaviour, dispersion within markets and how it influences your trend following return. We also discuss quant research, the motivated reasoning bias and the importance of being open minded as a researcher to find better ways of being a trend follower, ways of dealing with transaction costs when building models, optimal ways of performing backtests and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:38 -Is there a best time to trade?
05:07 -What has caught Mark's attention recently?
08:36 -Industry performance update
10:01 -Will we see a change in investor behaviour?
17:04 -The benefit of cash
21:11 -Are guaranteed products making a comeback?
26:18 -The dispersion within markets
32:05 -The Ex ante and Ex post problem for quant research
39:23 -Stay open minded
43:46 -Dealing with transaction costs
56:53 -The road to robust models
01:00:37 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 12 Aug 2023 - 1h 02min - 1289 - IL19: Revolutionary Technology & the Coming Economic Boom ft. Mark P. Mills
Mark Mills joins us to discuss his new book The Cloud Revolution: How The Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and a Roaring 2020’s. Mark is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a faculty fellow at Northwestern’s engineering school and a strategic partner in energy-tech venture fund Montrose Lane. In our conversation Mark explains how advances on three fronts - information, machines and materials - are converging in a way that is going to propel a surge in economic growth and productivity.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Mark on Twitter & Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:12 - Introduction to Mark Mills and his book
10:00 - What is meant by "the cloud"?
15:46 - The Cloud Revolution
21:44 - Collecting data with AI
28:10 - What is computational material and how is it used?
36:05 - Designing material with AI
40:08 - Getting more out of technology
48:43 - Working with robots
52:21 - Increasing productivity in health care
57:55 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 09 Aug 2023 - 1h 00min - 1288 - SI255: A Treasury Tsunami & Slow Burning Minsky Moments ft. Alan Dunne
Today, I'm joined by Alan Dunne to discuss the ‘treasury tsunami’ and the current challenges that the economy faces, the state of the Japanese and Chinese economy and the fear of ‘Japanification’, what is a reasonable return expectation for the different asset classes and why you should allocate to trend following despite the scepticism surrounding it. We also discuss how we are witnessing a slow burning Minsky moment in terms of debt and the refinancing risks that will emerge in the coming years, why meaningful allocation to markets is more important than allocating to too many markets and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:30 - What's been on Alan's radar in recent weeks?
03:54 - The big macro picture
12:26 - A treasury tsunami is coming
17:29 - Why has the economy stayed strong?
21:13 - A fear of Japanification
26:28 - Industry performance update
28:39 - A period of dispersion
33:36 - Calculating the return expectations
41:26 - Don't sleep on trend following
47:47 - Slow burning Minsky moments
55:22 - A conversation with Christopher Zook
01:01:18 - Charlie Munger article about diversification
01:08:34 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 05 Aug 2023 - 1h 10min - 1287 - GAL04: Expanding Your Consciousness and Reality ft. Mark Gober
Do you ever have that feeling someone is staring at you? You turn around and find someone looking at you. What causes that? We get the answer in this episode of our Galactic Macro series as we sit down with Mark Gober, author, and board director at Apollo 14 astronaut Edgar Mitchell’s Institute of Noetic Sciences. Mark explains to us the science behind extra sensory perception, near death experiences, UAP and then shows the one thing they all have in common - consciousness, the ultimate technology. You won’t want to miss this fascinating conversation where we explore these new frontiers.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Follow David onTwitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:36 -Introduction to Mark Gober
07:13 -Constructing a new reality
11:18 -Mark's journey with libertarianism
17:55 -Understanding consciousness
23:33 -Near death experiences and the science behind
27:14 -The shared death experiences
28:51 -What is terminal lucidity?
31:50 -The role of psychic abilities
38:42 -The road to studying UFOs
44:05 -UAP encounters are nothing new
49:23 -The Rendlesham Forest case
52:33 -Where is this all going?
56:55 -Who is Robert Bigelow?
01:00:45 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 02 Aug 2023 - 1h 03min - 1286 - TTU145: All In on Trend Following ft. Jerry Parker, Founder of Chesapeake Capital
Jerry Parker, Founder of Chesapeake Capital is perhaps the most successful of the famous group of Turtles, and today we discuss what he has learned from his 40+ years love affair with Trend Following, and how he has evolved his CTA program. We debate the challenges of using the Sharpe Ratio and what improvement really look like, how he uses volatility in his trend following process and the conflicts that can arise when working with clients. We also find out why Jerry believes you can be a good manager without using stops even if this is not how he does it, why he believes in trend following plus nothing, why he felt he had no choice than to launch an ETF with that name and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Learn more about Chesapeake Capital.
Episode Timestamps:
02:58 - Introduction to Chesapeake Capital
07:02 - Jerry's key trend following learnings
12:54 - Jerry's investment philosophy
17:02 - Being evolutionary without too much tinkering
22:09 - Advice on running a trend following program
26:48 - Their process for selecting parameters
32:15 - What does an improvement look like...if not a higher Sharpe?
39:25 - The role of volatility in the trend following process
44:41 - The challenges of working with clients
48:51 - What if everyone was a trend follower?
54:21 - Can you be a good manager without using stops?
57:05 - Why are the other firms "wrong"?
01:04:33 - Trend following disagreements
01:06:42 - Excitements for the future
01:08:23 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Mon, 31 Jul 2023 - 1h 09min - 1285 - SI254: Does Trend Following Single Stocks Make Sense? ft. Nick Baltas
Nick Baltas returns to discuss single stock trend momentum dynamics and more. With his usual academic elegance, Nick dives into Portfolio Construction and Risk Management, Static vs. Dynamic positioning, how to apply each type in your trading, and why one is not “better” than the other, the key factors of portfolio construction and why the difference between cross-sectional and time-series momentum is important to understand. We also discuss trend following in single stocks and why it is a complicated matter, single stock factors trend as well CTA strategies inside ETF wrappers...the pros and cons and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:36 - What has caught Nick's attention recently?
06:28 - Industry performance update
07:28 - Dynamic vs. Static positioning
17:54 - Is one better than the other?
22:35 - The objective of Dynamic positioning
29:35 - Cross-Sectional and Time-Series Momentum: What Is the Difference?
43:57 - AQR paper on single stock factor trend
50:17 - CTA strategies inside and ETF wrapper...a good idea?
01:00:35 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 29 Jul 2023 - 1h 02min - 1284 - ALO15: Exploring Today's Investment Opportunities ft. Christopher Zook
Christopher Zook, Founder, Chairman and CIO of CAZ Investments joins us for fascinating and thought-provoking conversation on the outlook for the economy and the investment opportunities in current markets. Christopher explains why he thinks the risk-reward is so poor in public equity markets at the moment and why investors are being offered poor prospective returns for the risk. We discuss private markets and the areas where CAZ is focused on allocating capital, particularly sports franchises and GP stakes. We also discuss some of the potential challenges in private markets as consumer and real estate debt is refinanced in the coming years. We delve into what Christopher and his team look for when selecting managers and partners, and the questions they ask to help unearth the next thematic opportunity. We wrap up by discussing the big influences on Christopher’s career and his key learnings from over three decades in the industry.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Christopher on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:51 - Introduction to Christopher Zook
05:11 -Zook's current view on the markets and economy
09:06 - The outlook for real estate
12:48 - Stagflation and the impact of AI
16:29 - Parallels to the .com bubble?
18:45 - Options trading - a key driver of short term
21:35 - Building portfolios for the current environment
25:44 - Inflation, stocks and pricing power
28:14 - Opportunities in markets
30:50 - Investing in sports teams
38:54 - GP stakes and the asset management industry
45:40 - Bad actors in the industry
49:44 - 50 shades of risk
54:25 - Finding the right people to work with
57:40 - Lessons learned
59:17 - Finding the next big thing
01:02:49 - Working with Tony Robbins
01:04:30 - Advice for new investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 26 Jul 2023 - 1h 07min - 1283 - SI253: A New Trend Following ETF is Born ft. Andrew Beer & Jerry Parker
Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer and Jerry Parker for a fascinating conversation about the different approches to trend following within the ETF landscape. We discuss what the role trend following should play in a portfolio, the best approach to staying diversified, and where the growth might come from in the ETF space. We also discuss a few more controversial topics like fees, and why Jerry view trend following and managed futures as 2 different things and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:44 -What's been on Andrew's and Jerry's radar lately?
04:38 -Industry performance update
05:43 -Lessons learned from launching Trend Following Plus Nothing
10:21 -What should the role of Trend Following be?
13:45 -New ETFs - where will the growth come from?
16:35 -The best approach to trading markets
23:37 -Staying balanced with single stocks
27:54 -Biases in Jerry's trading
30:11 -Will Jerry's correlation to equities begin to increase?
33:59 -Q1, Oliver: Why pay Jerry higher fees for being long equities?
40:02 -Will large hedge funds bring ETFs to markets?
44:08 -Are we in a hedge fund CTA fee bubble?
46:59 -Jerrys take on performance fees
52:24 -Andrew's take on performance fees
54:26 -Trend Following vs Managed Futures - 2 different things?
01:08:52 -Tax efficiency in ETFs
01:12:24 -Final thoughts
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 22 Jul 2023 - 1h 14min - 1282 - GAL03: Global Conflicts and the Trajectory of Humanity ft. Dr. Paul Sullivan
When it comes to global conflict and understanding the limits of Earth's resources the man to turn to is Dr. Paul Sullivan. Paul is a seasoned professor that has taught at several of the world's leading universities and influenced the thinking of students that are now some of the DOD's top brass as well as world leaders. His depth of understanding and commitment to a lifetime of learning is uncommon in a world of short attention spans. We sit with Paul in this conversation to understand his current view of global conflicts and the trajectory that humanity finds itself on. Join us as we gain new understandings into the corners of geopolitics, the realities of a clean energy transition, building new leaders, and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow David on Twitter.
Follow Paul on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:43 - Introduction to Dr. Paul Sullivan
13:58 - The current state of Syria
18:34 - Understanding the Middle East conflicts
24:33 - Where is the US most vulnerable?
27:13 - The challenges that China is facing
29:33 - Why is the US supporting the one China policy?
32:04 - Resources and conflicts - what are we missing?
35:31 - What to do if you want to make a difference
44:14 - Reaching breakthroughs in physics
50:57 - The risk of complex technology
56:05 - How do we prepare our children to become great leaders?
01:03:07 -Expanding our intuition
01:07:58 -Hopes for the future and book recommendations
01:16:32 -Thanks for listening
01:17:01 -Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 19 Jul 2023 - 1h 19min - 1281 - SI252: From Crypto Sceptic to Crypto Adviser ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver joins me to reveal some surprising news about his new “job”. We discuss portfolio optimization and why you should be concerned about certain types optimization techniques, why Rob believes trend following a trend following ETF is a bad idea, when is the best time to buy trend followers and how to use factors when applying an exponential moving average. We also discuss safe trading and how to achieve the most diversification for your portfolio, the dodgy behaviour that exists in the crypto space and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:15 - Update of the week
07:50 - Industry performance update
10:49 - Q1, Scott: Should i be concerned about adjusting portfolio weights according to the backtested sharpe ratio of my system?
18:52 -Q2.1, Andrew: Is trend following the trend following ETFs a good idea?
28:16 -Q2.2, Andrew: What is the advantage of factors of 4?
34:13 -Q2.3, Andrew: About using free backtesting systems
40:46 -Rob becoming a crypto adviser...what!
45:12 -Trading safely
52:22 -Dodgy behaviour in the crypto space
57:37 -Paper: A different point of skew
01:05:04 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 15 Jul 2023 - 1h 07min - 1280 - IL18: We Need to Talk About Inflation ft. Stephen King
HSBC Senior Economic Adviser Stephen King joins the show to discuss the most important long-term issue facing western economies: inflation. Stephen’s new book - We Need To Talk About Inflation - is an FT “book to read in 2023” for good reasons. He explains why inflation is not just about money creation, it also depends on public perceptions and the fatal temptation of governments to usurp central bank independence (what he calls the Richard Burton - Elizabeth Taylor rule). Stephen explains how to evaluate future inflation risks through his “4 Inflationary Tests” and we talk through how the US and Europe currently measure up.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Stephen on Twitter & Read hisBook.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:05 -Introduction to Stephen King and his book
09:00 -The relationship between public behaviour and the supply of money
13:21 -Can it be deflationary?
17:12 -The Taylor Burton effect
30:29 -The unfairness of inflation
37:46 -Has the impact of inflation become worse over time?
46:26 -Institutional changes and inflation bias
51:04 -Is the radar still switched off?
52:49 -A collapse in money supply?
55:50 -Are central banks acting too slow?
58:31 -The current state of supply conditions
01:02:26 -The relationsship between demographics and inflation
01:05:57 -Building the ideal Fed
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 12 Jul 2023 - 1h 14min - 1279 - SI251: A Deep Dive Into Models and Systems ft. Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan returns for a true trend following conversation where we dive deep into the construction of models and systems. We discuss why long-term trading are often preferred by many trend followers and what we can learn from acoustics and physics in terms of noise and signals, how to get the most diversification from highly correlated markets through system design and why you should trade with an ensemble of markets. We also discuss how complex adaptive systems evolve over time, how to understand transitions events and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:03 -An update on the Australian economy
02:50 -A global macro perspective
05:38 -Industry performance update
08:39 -A bias towards long term models?
20:28 -Emergent structures and the butterfly effect
25:08 -Something is happening at the South Pole
26:01 -Getting diversification out of highly correlated markets
39:23 -Understanding complex adaptive systems
54:05 -The stability of markets
57:17 -Applying different rules to different markets
01:00:32 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 08 Jul 2023 - 1h 02min - 1278 - GM46: An Emerging Market Boom of Epic Proportion ft. Louis-Vincent Gave
Today we are joined by Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research for a fascinating discussion on the key global macro trends impacting markets. Louis outlines his case for why the consensus is wrong to expect a US recession and why he sees accommodative US fiscal policy as a key driver of the economy in the next 1-2 years. We discuss the upside and downside risks to inflation and how weather patterns may be an underappreciated risk to inflation in the next 1-2 years. One of Louis’ key calls is an upbeat outlook on emerging markets, particularly in the middle East and Asia. The recent peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia is a key element of this, while the structural trend of de-dollarization and emerging economies increasingly selling goods in their own currency are other elements. We wrap up with an assessment of AI and the economic implications in the medium term.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:23 - Introduction to Louis Vincent Gave
05:28 - Is the economy starting to crack?
10:40 - When is the recession coming?
13:13 - The outlook for inflation
18:36 - The problem with designification
21:18 - The challenges of Chinese economy
27:56 - Can the Japanese economic situation be compared to China?
31:31 - Looking beyond the U.S and China
36:12 - An epic boom in emerging markets
40:20 - The structural growth in China
43:28 - Middle East joining forces
46:53 - Dealing with the debt
50:43 - Inverted yield curve and the bond market
54:09 - How will AI affect the economy?
59:22 - Good advice and book recommendations
01:02:00 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 05 Jul 2023 - 1h 03min - 1277 - SI250: Tour de Volatility ft. Cem Karsan
Cem Karsan joins me for a tour of the current volatility and macro environment, where we take a deep dive into where markets and economy are heading. We discuss the potential of the economy going into stagflation and why many investors might not be prepared for what is to come, the unpredictable volatility environment and how technology like AI is affecting markets. We also discuss the potential dangers of zero day options and how to position yourself appropriately for the markets, how to prepare for the upcoming summer holidays and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:45 - The global macro perspective
03:07 - Industry performance update
04:48 - Reviewing the first half of the year
09:14 -A deep dive into markets
24:37 - Preparing for a major blowup
39:24 - Zero day options - a loaded gun?
45:36 - Best Ever 1st half for NASDAQ
48:27 - Preparing for summer holidays
53:35 -Are CTAs and trend followers are pushing the markets higher?
56:43 -Advice when heading into holidays
58:33 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 01 Jul 2023 - 1h 00min - 1276 - GAL02: The Blind Spot of AI & UAPs ft. Izabella Kaminska & Dario Garcia Garner
There are few instincts sharper than those of a talented journalist. Izabella Kaminska, founder and editor of The Blind Spot, and her colleague Dario Garcia Giner have those instincts in spades. While still at the Financial Times, on December 10, 2021, Izabella penned a thought provoking article titled Do portfolios have a UAP risk?. Long before anyone was talking about UAP in the financial sector Izabella recognized that this taboo subject could impact markets and was worth paying attention to. That article led to research analyst Dario Garcia Giner reaching out and joining Izabella at The Blind Spot where they continue their work uncovering interesting and important corners of markets that remain overlooked. Listen in as we discuss with Izabella and Dario their perspectives on UAP, geopolitics, and the complexity of understanding and managing risk in a sci-fi like world.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow David on Twitter.
Follow Izabella on Twitter.
Follow The Blind Spot.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:33 -What have UAPs even to do with finance?
09:26 -When will UAPs become a common risk disclosure?
15:59 -Who is Ryan Graves and why is he important?
19:15 -Their reaction to Politico article by Chris Mellon
26:20 -Classified information, lacking coverage and the Havana Syndrome
32:03 -A potential for geopolitical conflict
39:13 -The biggest underpriced risk in global markets
44:43 -Conspiracy theories and the weird factor
51:55 -Mass fragmentation and loss of trust in media
01:00:32 -What is happening at the South Pole?
01:06:56 -Inspiration and book recommendations
01:12:00 -Thanks for listening
01:12:39 -Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 28 Jun 2023 - 1h 15min - 1275 - SI249: Unfulfilled Expectations in 1st Half of 2023 ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Today, Mark Rzepczynsky joins me to discuss momentum gap and why momentum is a core component of all markets, the concept of "stretch" and when to enter and exit trades at the right time, dislocations in markets and how AI may or may not affect the trend following space. We then review all the things we were "promised" would happen in the first half of 2023...but did not! And to round things off, we dive into what causes models to fail and why there are many ways to interpret the success of a model, the challenge of predicting markets and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:03 - What happened this week?
03:48 - Industry performance update
05:21 - Article on momentum gap
16:46 - Getting the entry and exit right
23:25 - What did not happen this year?
32:02 - AI and trend following
35:48 - Advice on using AI and machine learning
42:59 - Failure of models
52:19 - The challenge of evaluating models
56:28 - Being macro aware
01:00:35 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 24 Jun 2023 - 1h 04min - 1274 - GAL01: Galactic Macro...The New Investment Frontier ft. Jay Anderson
2023 is a year for the record books as world changing technologies such as AI once believed to be science fiction become science fact. The most exotic technologies, however, are thought to be related to Unidentified Anomalous Phenomenon and may also have an AI connection. At the vanguard of the new generation of UAP researchers is Jay Anderson. He kicks off our Galactic Macro series with David Dorr as they discuss the breathtaking disclosures coming out of the U.S. Pentagon and connect the dots to unraveling a mystery that may be as old as humanity itself. What will be revealed in the new physics displayed by UAP and documented by the world's best military signal intelligence systems? Has the U.S., Russia, China or anyone else made breakthroughs in physics that are not yet publicly known? Are we alone? The implications of what we discuss not only could impact every aspect of financial markets, they could impact every aspect of how we view our place in the universe.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow David on Twitter.
Follow Jay and Project Unity on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:08 - Introduction to Jay Andersen and Project Unity
08:50 - The tipping point
20:51 - An ever-changing phenomenon
29:29 - Increasing encounters - why now?
37:41 - The importance of Wright-Patterson Air Force Base
42:25 - Evolving into a new human species
50:12 - Staying well prepared for new technology
55:30 - The Global Event Rating Algorithm
58:33 - An acclimation process
01:08:56 -How did Jay get into the UFO subject?
01:14:17 -Final thoughts?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 21 Jun 2023 - 1h 18min - 1273 - SI248: Trend Following, AI & Mastering Risk Management ft. Alan Dunne
Alan Dunne returns to the show following a busy week of Fed action and economic activity. We discuss how technology like artificial intelligence impacts the economy and investors, both currently and in the future, the use of machine learning trend following and why it is important to be aware of your own biases. We also discuss what constitutes good risk management and why risk management is key to any successful investor, the evolution of risk management and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:58 - The big macro picture
13:25 - Industry performance update
16:33 - Artificial Intelligence - friend or foe?
28:00 - Using AI in trend following
32:40 - Katy Kaminski paper on bonds
39:36 -Being aware of your own biases
44:49 - Quantica paper on protection and returns
48:35 - Transtrend paper - volatility vs. drawdowns
53:24 - Risk management - the secret sauce?
57:28 - The evolution of risk management
01:03:24 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 17 Jun 2023 - 1h 05min - 1272 - GM45: A Geopolitical Mosh Pit ft. Michael Kao
As has become clear in the past couple of years, the interconnection between Macro Economics and Geo-Politics is stronger today than ever before in our lifetime. And who better to explain this mosh pit than the Ubankaoboy himself, Michael Kao who joins me and Cem Karsan for a fascinating and wide ranging conversation. We cover topics like China's debt problem, Oil and the mistakes the US are making as we speak, OPEC+ as well has hear Michael, who's parents fled from China to Taiwan, describe an potentially "explosive" scenario in which China may well be united with Taiwan that he is hearing from one of his "Uncles" still living in Taiwan.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Michael on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:29 -The big macro picture
14:09 -The debt problem in China
20:39 -The fragility of China and the Taiwan conflict
24:57 -Kao's view on supply and demand
31:17 -How does Fed power affect oil?
38:41 -A complicated dynamic
41:54 -Can we actually trust anyone?
45:29 -The shadow banking system and refinancing risk
48:53 -A structural problem
51:59 -Reimagining safe assets
58:27 -Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 14 Jun 2023 - 59min - 1271 - SI247: What is Smart Diversification? ft. Nick Baltas
Today, Nick Baltas return to the show for a look at some recent published research papers by our friends over at Quantica and AQR. Despite our technical difficulties with my audio and notes...we discuss the timing and speed of executing trades and the pros and cons of trend following compared to stocks and bonds, how to achieve the best protection whilst maximizing returns during times of trouble in equities or higher interest rates and why short term strategies does not necessarily give you better protection, nor better returns. We also discuss the similarities and differences between trend following and economic trend and the importance of luck, why you get what you pay for in terms of manager performance and much more.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:10 - What happened this week?
03:24 - Industry performance update
05:07 - Q1, David: About the speed of execution
10:43 - Q2, Oliver: Trend following vs. stocks and bonds
16:08 - A discussion on smart diversification
22:21 - Shorter term strategies = more protection?
25:22 - The role of lookback
29:07 - Paper on economic trend
36:16 - Trend following vs. economic trend
45:18 - Withstanding the pain of long term trend following
54:16 - Capping equity exposure
56:08 - Is fee reduction alpha?
01:02:01 - Does CTA replication models = single manager risk?
01:04:04 - The problems with managed futures indexes
01:07:54 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Sat, 10 Jun 2023 - 1h 09min - 1270 - GM44: Insights From Inside Credit Suisse ft. Mika Kastenholz
Our guest Mika Kastenholz shares his insights running a global, cross-asset class macro trading business within a major investment bank in this episode. We learn about potential volatility mismatches in the equity index and fixed income markets, distortions in the yield curve caused by regulatory changes, and a general decline in the appetite for risk taking in the banking sector post-2008. Mika also discusses the viability of crisis prediction using quantitative models, and positioning risk in the convertible bond market. This episode offers a rare perspective into the way a major sell side player thinks about risk and opportunity.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTubeor via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Hari on Twitter.
Follow Mika on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:20 - Introduction to Mika Kastenholz
09:25 - Working with econophysics
10:52 - Finding the perfect size
12:05 - Mika's view on naive sizing
13:19 - The macro perspective
16:27 - Depressed commodities and the inverted yield curve
18:46 - A changing environment
21:01 - The impact of post 2008 regulations
23:29 - Hedging the autocallable structures
29:30 - Mika's approach to convertible bond arbitrage
31:42 - Swing options - a relic of the past?
33:30 - Has the depth of the markets decreased?
35:31 - How does cross margining work today?
36:51 - What happens with a large client trade?
38:59 - Dealing with regulations
42:51 - Are banks too focused on short-term dynamic risk management?
45:48 - What if every bank had the same risk limits?
48:15 - Are the banks aware of network effects?
50:13 - Is the complex systems push overstated?
54:09 - An anomaly that could be exploited?
57:06 - A confused market
59:19 - The outlook for the term premia
01:01:10 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Wed, 07 Jun 2023 - 1h 03min
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