ChinaTalk

We're taking one out of the archives! Douglas Irwin is a Dartmouth professor and the author of Clashing Over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy. On this episode, Irwin provides an overview to the history of U.S. trade policy from the 18th century to the modern day, highlighting significant legislation as well as the formation of important intergovernmental organizations that have sprung up along the way. Outro Music: Janis Joplin, Mercedes Benz 19:53: On the flawed logic behind the Tariff Act of 1930, and the parallels with similarly problematic thinking in the modern day: “There’s absolutely a parallel there because some Democrats in Congress said, ‘You know, we ought to really think about this carefully, and not just our domestic interest but also our export interests, and other countries might retaliate.’ And basically, the reaction of most members of Congress was, Republicans at the time, ‘No, we don’t have to worry about that. This is a domestic piece of legislation, it doesn’t really concern other countries. They’re not going to retaliate.’ And, of course, they did.” 39:40: Doug discusses the tips and tricks behind one example of “tariff engineering”: “The tariffs applied to motorcycles with piston displacements of 700cc and above. What Honda started doing is producing a 699cc version. Now the difference [between the two] is imperceptible, but just by changing that one cubic centimeter, it changed the whole tariff treatment and you avoided a 45 percent tariff and were assessed at a much, much lower rate.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Brad Setser of CFR talks Biden's new tariffs! Earlier podcast deep dive on Chinese EV policy: ChinaTalk: Why Chinese EVs Will Take Over the World on Apple Podcasts Earlier podcast on the deep history of US trade policy: ChinaTalk: Tarriffs, taxes, and trade: Doug Irwin on ChinaEconTalk on Apple Podcasts Brad's paper: Power and Financial Interdependence (ifri.org) Outtro Music: Golden Earring's Radar Love Here's a fun playlist on the best car songs: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/6l0sSAdFwyCH1yzQX2IrKQ?si=fb3b8fdd29644631 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Charles Clancy is the CTO of MITRE, an American not-for-profit organization managing federally funded research and development centers (FFRDCs) supporting various US government agencies in defense, healthcare, national security, and cybersecurity fields, among others. In this interview, we discuss: What is MITRE and how does it support national science & technology strategy How China threatens America’s infrastructure and university R&D The cyber workforce gap and how AI could fill it Finding mission-driven work for highly skilled technologists How the ecosystem of S&T and R&D funding evolved through the 20th century to today Outtro music: Yung Bae, Magic Yung Bae - Magic (youtube.com) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

TSMC is taking on Arizona. How's it going? To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Viola Zhou, journalist at Rest of World. She has published pieces on Foxconn's quest to make iPhones in India and most recently, a gripping feature about the cultural challenges that TSMC is facing trying to manufacture semiconductors in the USA. Throughout her story, we get a peek into a world of rigid hierarchies, American workers who are slow on the uptake, and culture clash over pornographic desktop flair.  Today’s interview discusses: Sleuthing techniques for independent journalism; The challenges faced by Taiwanese semiconductor engineers relocating to Arizona; TSMC’s management style and the complaints raised by new American employees; The similarities and differences between TSMC’s expansion to the USA and Foxconn’s expansion to India; Whether adapting to American work culture will tank the prospects of the new Phoenix Fab. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

India’s elections are underway! What does the future hold for the world’s largest democracy? Will the election results impact India-China relations? What about India-US relations? To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Dr. Raja Mohan, Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore. Co-hosting today is James Crabtree, author of The Billionaire Raj. We get into: What the border disputes between China and India can tell us about the political economy of the two nations; The anti-imperial history that frames India-China relations; Modi’s election prospects and India’s spirit of democracy; What score Biden’s diplomatic team has earned in Southeast Asia; Criticisms of Modi and accusations of democratic backsliding; Opportinities for friction in the US-India relationship, including Trump tariffs, immigration, and Russia; Whether the US is making a “bad bet” on India, and how India is prepared to involve itself during an invasion of Taiwan. Outtro Music: Jhoome Jo Pathaan Vishal-Shekhar, Arijit Singh, Sukriti Kakar, Vishal Dadlani, Shekhar Ravjiani, Kumaar https://open.spotify.com/track/6FAYpZ4jve8vpvTwUvjK6H?si=66c7c984fd52497cs 12 Bande 12 Bande - song and lyrics by Varinder Brar | Spotify Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The DOJ is now charged with protecting American data from foreign adversaries. This new proposed rule they recently issued is, according to one observer, “one of the most ambitious and sweeping new initiatives in national security law over the past few years.” To discuss, we interviewed Devin DeBacker and Lee Licata of the Department of Justice’s National Security Division. We get into: How adversaries plan to weaponize obscure data types — including geolocation data, DNA sequencing, and undersea cable transmissions; How China managed to purchase genomic data on millions of Americans through healthcare investments; Why black box data brokers keep records of who goes to casinos; How the DOJ plans to protect your data, and whether their plans can be thwarted by gridlock in Congress. I’m excited to introduce a partnership with Policyware to bring affordable, expert-driven policy education to my audience. Starting May 14, Samm Sacks will be teaching a deep dive into China’s Digital Governance and its Global Implications. Samm is an old friend of mine and a Senior Fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center. She is a leading expert on China’s cybersecurity legal system, the U.S.-China technology relationship, and the geopolitics of data privacy and cross-border data flows. Check out below a show I did with Samm on ChinaTalk discussing China’s digital governance. You’ll learn over several weeks as Samm delivers live classes, with options to listen on your own time. Policyware Deep Dives are designed to be attended alongside your job, and they will help you organize with your employer for cost sharing. Check out the show we did together on data issues late last year. Help support ChinaTalk by registering for the deep dive here and thank you to Policyware for sponsoring today’s episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ryan Takeshita is the Chief Global Editor at PIVOT, a new media outlet in Japan focused on the emerging startup scene. We get into: A stroll through recent economic history leading to today's 'boom times' Why more people are looking to leave traditional occupations for insurgent firms Challenges around demographics and immigration Outtro Music: Idol by Yaosobi https://open.spotify.com/track/1hAloWiinXLPQUJxrJReb1?si=36552bdc34cb4a73 Matsuri No Genzo by Hideo Shiraki and 3 Koto Girls https://open.spotify.com/track/6eTteH1zyZeQKZ2Mu7VC5d?si=230b3d1739d5417e Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To learn about Japan’s new economic national security policy, export controls, chip policy, lessons from history, and even space policy, we interviewed Kazuto Suzuki. Suzuki-san is a professor at the University of Tokyo. He serves as an advisor to Japan’s Ministry of the Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) as well as advising Japan’s space program. He served on the UN Security Council's Iran Sanctions Panel, and he also recently established the Institute of Geoeconomics at the International House of Japan.  We get into… What Japan’s new economic national security law does, and what it means for global semiconductor supply chains; The state of multilateral export controls; Nippon steel, the US election, and cooperation between East Asian democracies; Historical examples of economic coercion, from the Qing Dynasty to FDR vs imperial Japan to the Senkaku islands; Japan’s goals for space commercialization; … and more! Co-hosting today is Arrian Ebrahimi, student at Yenching academy and author of the Chip Capitols Substack. Outtro Music: Every Breath You Take/Theme from Peter Gunn as featured on the Sopranos The Sopranos - Every Breath You Take (youtube.com) Cover photo: Toyohara Kuniteru III | Illustration of the Imperial Diet House of Commons with a Listing of all Members | Japan | Meiji period (1868–1912) | The Metropolitan Museum of Art (metmuseum.org) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Just minutes after the Taiwan earthquake yesterday, Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis, Doug O'Laughlin of Fabricated Knowledge, Jon of Asianometry and yours truly had a brief hang where we got into: Intel's process progress and rocky financial road ahead Reflections out of GTC Jensen's galaxy brain Photo of the woman who saved Intel, Dr. Ann Kelleher, General Manager of Foundry Technology Development. Outtro music: YELLOW黃宣 & 9m88 - 怪天氣 Strange Weather https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1n_i0JupwRA Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Straight from Tokyo, Japan: an exclusive with Amb. Rahm Emanuel. Before his current posting as US ambassador to Japan, Rahm served as a senior advisor to Bill Clinton, multiple terms in the US House of Representatives, Obama’s first chief of staff, and the mayor of Chicago. If nothing else, you can count on his gloves-off, no-holds-barred approach to politics — and he’s been no different when it comes to China. Notwithstanding reports that even officials in Biden’s NSC have told him to stop “taunting” China, Rahm has been consistently, uniquely willing to say out loud what virtually every other high-ranking US official doesn’t. Of course, the ambassador — or, as his desk placard during his chief-of-staff days read, “Undersecretary for Go Fuck Yourself” — may take issue with that framing. His comments aren’t “critical,” Rahm says, but “truthful.” This interview covers a ton of ground. On China: How the Biden administration is closing the chapter on “hub and spokes,” what tomorrow’s “latticework” architecture will look like, and what Asia-Pacific alliances might look like under a second Trump administration; The future of Japan-Korea, and a peek behind the curtain on how the historic Camp David summit materialized; Rahm’s “3 Cs” for China — calm, conflict, charm — and how US foreign-policy leaders should reckon the mutual inconsistencies among those three; And roads not taken by Xi: why Rahm thinks China’s entrepreneurial culture has taken a nosedive, and what China’s government today is most scared of. And on politics and life: Why “diplomacy” and “politics” are the same thing — and why that’s a good thing; Whether the State Department suffers from a personality deficit, and what makes for a good ambassador; How to heal America’s body politic — post-Trump, post-Recession, post-GWOT; Why Rahm thinks “quality time” with kids is “BS,” and thoughts on raising kids as a time-crunched politician; And what Rahm thinks the biggest emerging threat to the world is. I really enjoyed my trip to Japan, and I’d love a financial excuse to continue recording shows on the country. If you work at JETRO, METI, The Japan Foundation, Mitsubishi, Rakuten, etc. and are interested in seeing more deep coverage of Japan and US-China-Japan relations on this podcast, do reach out! Outtro music: Tadao Hayashi Japanese Harp Trio's 1977 take on I Could Have Danced All Night Tadao Hayashi Harp Trio – The Impossible Dream 1977 (youtube.com) Also from 1977, Tokai by Kaeko Onuki Tokai (youtube.com) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Biotech. What is it? Why should you care? Does biotech really matter for national security? What are China’s biotech ambitions? To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed Jason Kelly, the Chair and Vice Chair of the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology. Jason is the Co-Founder and CEO of Ginkgo Bioworks, a publicly traded firm that provides a horizontal platform for cell programming. Michelle Rozo is currently Vice President of Technical Capabilities at In-Q-Tel, and she previously held positions in Biden’s NSC, the Department of Defense, and on the Hill. Co-hosting today is Chris “CRISPR” Miller, author of Chip War. We get into: The powerful science behind genetic engineering ; How the US government turned biotechnology into a $1 trillion industry over the course of the last fifty years; Why generative AI is destined to revolutionize synthetic biology; And whether China’s national biotech champions can leapfrog the US.  Outtro music: Suite Bergamasque: Clair de Lune, No. 3 (youtube.com) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Is Congress for real this time? To discuss the US domestic politics of the dramatic rollout and broader social, national, and geopolitical implications of the House's passage of a bill that would force Bytedance to divest from TikTok US, Ben Smith of Semafor joins the podcast. Outtro music: Olivia Rodrigo - Deja Vu 【Sped Up & reverb】 (youtube.com) The Platters - Only You - Lyrics - YouTube Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How do you stand up an effective national AI project? Is the world prepared for the Reformation-level societal change AI could bring? Matt Clifford, according to Politico Britain’s most powerful tech adviser, joins ChinaTalk to discuss! He served as Prime Minister Sunak's sherpa for the UK AI Summit, chairs ARIA, the UK's answer to DARPA, and co-founded Entrepreneur First, a startup incubator with a strong presence throughout Europe and Southeast Asia.  We get into: Tech Diplomacy & the UK AI Safety Summit: How countries are waking up to the watershed moment at the advent of powerful new AI, and the surprising commonalities in China’s perspectives on AI safety.  Organizational Design at ARIA: What are the challenges creating a world-class science project in government? How can you attract the best people and create the right organizational culture for success? Open Source AI and the Global AI Race — How should we evaluate the approaches to AI across different countries and private actors? What’s the verdict on open source models? Preparing for monumental changes — and why history cautions against expecting business as usual, and how fiction can open our mind to the possibilities. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Chinese Doomscroll, which faithfully records happenings from the wild west that is Weibo (China’s Twitter/X equivalent), won the ChinaTalk award for best China-focussed Substack on 2023. Today we have on the brain behind the newsletter: Molly, who’s been doomscrolling for us since early 2023. We discuss: Why Weibo keeps Molly up at night; Chinese elementary school kids’ academic prowess; How social issues gain attention on the trending list; Terrible bots; And what makes microblogging uniquely compelling. Outtro music is 演员 by Joker Xue 薛之谦: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKuL5xaKZHM Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How can AI change diplomacy? To discuss the State Department’s options for AI integration, we interviewed the State Department's Deputy Chief Data and AI Officer, Garrett Berntsen. He served as an officer during two tours in Afghanistan and recently rotated off the NSC. He's optimistic diplomacy can be more effective with comprehensive, timely, and accurate data-driven analysis, and that AI will be part of achieving that mission. We get into: How AI can streamline bureaucratic busy work The value of data-driven negotiation prep in diplomatic contexts The benefits of transparency in a democratic society What level of risk is appropriate for the civil service How close he is to getting ChatGPT into State The balance between transparency and secrecy in the age of big data How the Snowden leaks changed the State Department’s relationship with technology What the State Department can and can't import from the private sector Thanks to the Hudson Institute and Andrew Marshall Foundation for supporting this podcast. Outtro music: 國蛋 GorDoN - White Noise ft. 蛋堡 Soft Lipa https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31ZM440owzw Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Why can India design chips with the best of them but has completely failed to develop fabs, much less a broader electronics industry? To discuss, I have on Pranay Kotasthane, former chip designer at TI and Qualcomm who now works at the Takshashila Institution and is the author of the new book When the Chips are Down. Chris Miller of Chip War cohosts. We get into: How the political economy of technology in India led to world class software and services but underwhelming manufacturing Why India was slower to the uptake than China that socialism really sucks at getting your country rich What it takes to design a chip. Outtro music: Ye Jo Des Hai Tera https://youtu.be/4tiVPuLbbHg?feature=shared Image: spectacular Mughal painting of an elephant currently on at the Met. that I prompted with semiconductor alot https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/825607?pkgids=906 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What does it take to train a frontier model? What's the know-how, the secret sauce that makes firms lets OpenAI and Deepmind push the limits of what's possible? How much are Chinese firms benefitting from western open source, and in the long term is it possible for western labs to maintain an edge? The hosts of the excellent Latent Space podcast, Alessio Fanelli of Decibel VC and Shawn Wang of Smol AI, come on to discuss. We get into: How the secret sauce used to push the frontier of AI diffuses out of the top labs and into substacks How labs are managing the culture change from quasi-academic outfits to places that have to ship How open source raises the global AI standard, but why there's likely to always be a gap between closed and open source China as a "GPU Poor" nation Three key algorithmic innovations that could reshape the balance of power between the GPU rich and GPU poor Outtro music: CHEKI https://open.spotify.com/track/1zKL2bOEkMDGuIjLhG34YA?si=9a713a88aa3d4f71 Cover photo: "Inkstand with A Madman Distilling His Brains" 1600s Urbino. Kind of like training a model! https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/188899 The met description: In this whimsical maiolica sculpture, a well-dressed man leans forward in his seat with his head in a covered pot set above a fiery hearth. The vessel beside the hearth almost certainly held ink. The man’s actions are explained by an inscription on the chair: "I distill my brain and am totally happy." Thus the task of the writer is equated with distillation—the process through which a liquid is purified by heating and cooling, extracting its essence. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Matt Pottinger reported for years out of China, served as a US Marine Corps intelligence officer in Iraq and Afghanistan, and held several senior roles on Trump's NSC , concluding his time in the White House as the Deputy National Security Advisor. Today, Matt chairs the China Program at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. In this interview, we discuss: How Matt expects a second Trump administration’s China policy might develop. Why Trump is leaning more into strategic ambiguity than Biden, what that means for deterrence, and how that impacts the likelihood of him standing by were the PRC to invade Taiwan. Why bipartisan support for the US-China trade war will continue to shape the contours of great-power conflict. Matt’s look at the origins and political fallout of COVID-19. Plus, reflections on Mike Flynn and how Trump ran his NSC.  SUBSCRIBE TO THE NEWSLETTER! https://www.chinatalk.media/ Outtro music: Miles Davis, So What https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylXk1LBvIqU Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Heart attacks, prostate cancer, Jake Sullivan awake for a home invasion attempt at 4 AM because he was just up working on a random Tuesday night? Is the national security bureaucracy in America unwell? To discuss, I have on today John Gans, a former Pentagon speechwriter, who’s had many, many other jobs in Washington. He is also the author of the fantastic “White House Warriors,” a history of the National Security Council.   We get into: Why the organizational design of the NSC leads to such crushing burdens for midlevel and senior staffers The kinds of high-flyers that are drawn to the national security complex and what keeps them there How POTUS’s time constraints impact decision-making Why NSC’s historically are excellent at spotting problems but often overeager when crafting solutions The NSC’s role in America’s “forever wars.” Roosevelt, Kennedy, Nixon, and Trump’s “maverick model” of running the NSC compared to the Eisenhower vision of “regular order” How seemingly prosaic technological innovations like track changes and video conferencing have dramatically changed national security policymaking How reading Shakespeare can improve the quality of our policy-making What a better model could look like Illustration from the New Yorker's recent feature on Sullivan. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/10/16/trial-by-combat Outtro audio from Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kharis Templeman, research fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, returns to ChinaTalk to break down the recent Taiwan elections, held on January 13. We discuss: The lack of surprises in the election results, the subdued vibes during the campaign, and contrasts between local perspectives and foreign media narratives. Why the KMT failed to win the presidency, notwithstanding voter dissatisfaction with the DPP. China’s surprisingly muted response to the election, and how it may reassess its cross-Strait policies given a third DPP president. The new composition of the Legislative Yuan, and the strategic position of the Taiwan People’s Party as gatekeeper. Observations from Kharis’s time in Taiwan during the election season, and the gift of Taiwan’s democratic process. Outro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epwlWDCCevY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How did the US Navy evolve over the first half of the 20th century from a bunch of unschooled violent sailors who couldn't shoot straight to the world's largest and most technologically advanced fighting force? What lessons around organizational design can we learn from this transformation? Trent Hone, author of Learning War and Mastering the Art of Command, joins to discuss. Outtro Music: A selection from Brahms' 3rd Symphony, apparently Adm. Nimitz's favorite https://open.spotify.com/track/3T9xcTbS2E3epbncsMwkNC?si=296e316488c841d5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How did Lai win, what does China think, and what’s at stake for the DPP? ChinaTalk editor Nicholas Welch reads his latest recap of the 2024 Taiwan elections: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/taiwan-election-results-how-lai-won Subscribe to the newsletter! https://www.chinatalk.media Outro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JV9ayVWYr8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Should AI be more open or closed? What does it mean to be open, anyway? And can France overtake China in AI?? Today I'm running a crossover episode with the Retort AI, hosted by AI Ethicist Tom Gilbert and Nathan Lambert who writes the fantastic https://www.interconnects.ai/ newsletter covering technological advancements in machine learning. Outtro Music: Bela Fleck et al, Bahar https://open.spotify.com/track/4D1ne3QFCBtUU2xFnoTir4?si=aeef1aefc6e047c6 Cover photo is a Midjourney a riff off of this very cool Derian portrait showing in the MET till Jan 21 https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/846896?pkgids=884 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

New year, new PilotTalk! Ben Smith, editor-in-chief of Semafor, joins Jordan and editor Irene to watch Chinese and Taiwanese TV shows. Ben’s favorite genre is crime and police dramas, and we cover the following new-ish releases: A Date With The Future 照亮你 (2023, mainland): Romance where a firefighter falls in love with a journalist! **Ordinary Greatness** 警察荣誉 (2022, mainland): Sitcom about a local police station. The World Between Us 我們與惡的距離 (2019, Taiwan): Acclaimed miniseries set in the aftermath of a mass shooting, addressing media sensationalism, treatment of the mentally ill, and the death penalty. Outtro music: Kiss Me by Taiwanese artist Karencici https://open.spotify.com/track/7HZmJLWtISxYnoBqwx04bw?si=896165f1b52a4aa0 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Margaret Palmieri is the Deputy Chief Digital Artificial Intelligence Officer. I had her on to dicusss: Innovation vs diffusion in the DoD context Data issues making her life difficult How CDAO sources and tests ideas for implementing AI into different corners of the kill chain Thanks to the Andrew Marshall Foundation and the Hudson Institute’s Center for Defense Concepts and Technology for bringing you this episode. Outtro music: SCIENTISTS & ENGINEERS Andre 3k, Killer Mike, Future, Erykah Badu https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kU0SmxKucCw Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jake Newby of the substack Concrete Avalanche with an end of year ChinaTalk takeover! Here's his accompanying year in review post https://jakenewby.substack.com/p/2023-in-review?utm_source=activity_item Tracklist: Intro: 'Lost in China' (excerpt) – Tation 天声 (self-released) This 'postmodernist rock band from Tibet' produced some of their best work to date on the remarkable Illusions of the New Era EP. ‘Wen’s Woozy Wrap’ – Pu Poo Platter (fRUITYSHOP) Key cut from Brooklyn-formed Chinese funk group’s debut LP. ‘Greedysleeper’ – A Wordless Orange 沉默橙 (Taihe) Young Wuhan group deliver soulful pop-rock on one of the year’s best albums. ‘Watch the Crown’ – BoomHan 包涵 (Seafood Market Records) A sample of the 17-year-old Changsha rap prodigy’s impressive flow, from his debut album Gravediggaz. ‘Umbrella’ (featuring J-Fever) – PO8 (Tildawn Music) Not a Rihanna cover. Chengdu rapper toys with Shanghai jazz sounds. ‘Rap’ – ZhiYu Xia 夏之禹 (Mintone Records) Sichuan-born rapper, dubbed ‘the Jia Zhangke of hip hop’, dissects how he fell in love with the genre. ‘Where’s Tommy?’ – Hualun 花伦 (bié Records) intriguing change of direction from the ambient soundtrack masters. ‘Specter’ – The Fallacy 疯医 (Modern Sky) Brilliant return to form from Henan post-punks enlivened by new recruit Li Zenghui, who also played sax with Black Midi earlier this year ‘Cliff’ – The river, Orchestration, Walkman! 河边走 (self-released) Short sharp burst of bewildering brassy brilliance from one of the best new bands to emerge in 2023. ‘Vanished Instant’ – A Fishy Tale 有话 (Qiii Snacks Records) Another young band with a psychedelic sound; recorded during a trip to a Zhejiang mountain village. ‘East Yunnan Hallucinations’ – Instinkto Industrio 本能事业 (Maybe Mars) Folksy rhythms mix with techno-dystopian lyrics on one of 2023’s most characterful records.  ‘Standing in the Wind’ – Zhaoze 沼泽 (self-released) Guangdong guqin-driven post-rock outfit’s new album is one of their best. ‘Station 2020’ – Wu Zhuoling 吴卓玲 (self-released) The leading lady of alternative Chengdu music serves up an immersive ambient tune. ‘The Little Assassin Who Lives Beside the Sea Becomes and Environmentalist’ – Li Daiguo 李带菓 (Beihesan) The Dali-based artist had a productive year; this beautiful number was among the highlights. ‘Daididau’ (excerpt) – Mamer (Old Heaven Books) A too-short taste of a 7-minute long improvised piece on traditional Kazakh instrument the sherter from musical genius Mamer. ‘Four Seasons’ – Hugjiltu (self-released) An emotive folk number from an album featuring ‘collaborations’ with tapes of the Mongolian musician’s late father. ‘Harbour for Bias’ – Louzhang 楼长 (Jyugam) An alt-ambient highlight from a strong year for this offbeat Guangdong electronic label. ‘Snoring in the Valley’ – Howie Lee (self-released) Quirky electronic music from the renowned producer, quietly slipped out at the start of the year. ‘Solaris’ – Zhang Weiwei 张玮玮 (self-released) Chinese folk grandee swaps his accordion for a synth to interesting effect on his first album in over a decade. ‘I Want An Earth’ – Yu Su (pinchy&friends) Title track from the celebrated producer’s impressive EP of clever, beguiling electronic sounds. ‘Holes of Time’ – 33EMYBW (SVBKVLT) A typically idiosyncratic slice of avant club music from one of China’s leading producers. ‘The Forest That Hears’ – Laughing Ears (self-released) A welcome return from one of the country’s most interesting electronic music artists. ‘W.C.’ (Liars remix) – otay:onii (No Gold) Acclaimed artist Angus Andrew adds a new dimension to otay:onii’s weirdness after bié Records released her third LP in March. ‘Ἀντὶ θεῶν’ – Ὁπλίτης (self-released) Incredible one-man-band creating blistering metal tunes examining Chinese social issues. In Greek, obviously. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

80 episodes and 145 newsletters later, we've made it through my first year working on ChinaTalk full time. Editor Ryan Hauser hosts a review episode where we reflect on the past year, get into my production function, what I think the point of all of this is, and how I expect to evolve ChinaTalk in 2024. Please get in touch! I'm at jordan@chinatalk.media Here's my cause exploration essay: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/E2BghQq9pwPgtHgiH/war-between-the-us-and-china-a-case-study-for-epistemic Outtro music: Gurrumul, Bayini https://open.spotify.com/track/1XZ9HxC4MiMUUNQ7WKFucM?si=a40c4dfdd71c428e Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Brad Setser, fellow at CFR who spent a year during the Biden Administration in USTR, joins ChinaTalk to discuss: China's long term growth trajectory and implications for national power Zambia debt negotiations and Argentina's dollarization When strategic trade policy can make sense Panda export controls Sign up here for international intrigue! https://www.internationalintrigue.io/?utm_source=chinatalk&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=1223 Kyla Scanlon of the https://kyla.substack.com/ newsletter cohosts. Outtro music: I Hear a Rhapsody, Bill Evans and Jim Hall https://open.spotify.com/track/2oEvw0AfrT2fPNpEnBwVml?si=cc9f1add64034de7 Midjourney image: a panda bald eagle combined mystical animal in the style of a traditional chinese painting Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kevin Xu of https://interconnect.substack.com/ and I run down our top five stories of the year in US-China tech. We get into: The eternal chip war The battle for AI model supremacy EV competition Venture investing in China PDD and Temu's rise TikTok's impressive resilience Here's ChinaTalk's attempt to benchmark Chinese models https://www.chinatalk.media/p/putting-chinas-top-llms-to-the-test Outtro music: two songs from my spotify wrapped which are kind of ancillary to crappy US-China relations? 2gether, Mura Masa and Gretel Ganlyn: https://open.spotify.com/track/1Wqd0R1X1tuVK9FySVyLpt?si=48a61ddf3f094b57 No Talk, Lowell: https://open.spotify.com/track/0ToOqwERQswtN1O7AveCU9?si=9424183956b74960 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Taiwanese populace will head to the polls to choose their next president on January 13, 2024 — and the three-party slate is set! To discuss, we brought on Lu Yeh-chung 盧業中 — a professor of diplomacy at National Chengchi University 國立政治大學 — and Lin Fei-fan 林飛帆, previously the Deputy-Secretary of the DPP and well-known for leading the Sunflower Student Movement in 2014. Our conversation gets into: What a three-party race means in a first-past-the-post electoral system, and how the pan-blue and pan-green camps are feeling; Why the KMT-TPP alliance broke down, and what the pan-blue side needs to do to mobilize its electorate; The KMT’s and DPP’s views on whether Taiwanese and mainland Chinese are part of the same family 兩岸一家人; What the 1992 Consensus means to the KMT and DPP, and the tensions and synergies between idealism and functionalism in Taiwanese politics; How the CCP views the upcoming election, and to what extent it really fears pro-independence activists in Taiwan; What demarcates the KMT and DPP outside of cross-Strait politics, and which domestic issues are most compelling for the average Taiwanese voter; And how the KMT and DPP balance government spending on hard military assets versus subsidizing critical technologies like semiconductors. DPP ticket: president: William Lai Ching-te 賴清德 vice president: Hsiao Bi-khim 蕭美琴 KMT ticket: president: Hou Yu-ih 侯友宜 vice president: Jaw Shaw-kong 趙少康 TPP ticket: president: Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 vice president: Cynthia Wu Hsin-ying 吳欣盈 Outro music: 回春丹- 鲜花 https://open.spotify.com/track/35XxW360SO3puJQDfuaY4r Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This was a good episode. Mike Gallagher, Chair of the Select Committee on China, has some thoughtful thoughts! We get into: How he would fix Congress Why the early Cold War is still relevant today What he took away from his time in Iraq and the Eisenhower Archives Why all you should really do to understand China is listen to ChinaTalk and read our substack (at https://www.chinatalk.media/) My book rec: https://www.amazon.com/Men-Machines-Modern-Times-Press/dp/0262529319 Outtro music, Ella Fitzgerald, My Cousin in Milwaukee https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWy9XjHt324 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Rohit Krishnan of Strange Loop Canon and I kibbitz about this weekend's OpenAI drama as well as the safety and US-China regulatory dynamics likely raised in the discussions with the board. Some content we discussed: Jade Leung PhD thesis: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:ea3c7cb8-2464-45f1-a47c-c7b568f27665 Jeff Ding and Jenny Xiao's piece: https://www.governance.ai/research-paper/recent-trends-chinas-llm-landscape The Foreign Affairs piece: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/illusion-chinas-ai-prowess-regulation Image made by my mother on DALLE to represent Altman getting fired for the family groupchat. Outtro music: Happy Survival https://open.spotify.com/track/5txZKim1ruceUUhDlU84yc?si=b0d183344163418d It'l All Be Over: https://open.spotify.com/track/1KFtR58Hn1nQ9fR0DRnC9n?si=512636c8caf24610 Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Matt Turpin, China NSC Director in the Trump administration currently at Hoover and Palantir, comes on to discuss the good, the bad, and the ugly of US-China relations coming out of APEC. We get into: Realistic expectations for bilateral US-China diplomacy What are the necessary ingredients for coherent and effective policymaking What Matt expects and worries about from a second Trump administration Why foundations and corporations should sponsor ChinaTalk! Outtro music: Time/Breathe Reprise https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uw1bJrFdCjY Virtual insanity: https://open.spotify.com/track/24SUWisv2lYQiB3bVpE1sn?si=cf1cf18c0bc94ef7 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Peter Harrell, who served as Biden's Senior Director for International Economics and Competitiveness on the NSC and NEC, comes on to discuss: Why things do or don't happen in the executive branch What reforms we might need to accelerate and amplify decision-making Lessons from the sanctions response to the war in Ukraine for China Check out our newsletter at https://www.chinatalk.media. James Brown--Bewildered https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9iXlDeqSTRA Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Zvi Mowshowitz of Don't Worry about The Vase and Nathan Labenz of the Cognitive Revolution podcast come on for a quick recap of the past week's AI news! We get into: What AI diplomacy is looking like post-Bletchley Park What new applications OpenAI's latest announcements mean for future AI applications Outtro: Bizarrap with Milo J https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGWa-GO8mKg Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This interview was so good. Jason Matheny, Biden's former top tech + national security advisor, has recently reached one year as CEO of RAND. We had a truly classic ChinaTalk-style conversation, hitting on: How to design a world-class research organization The right and wrong lessons to learn from RAND's heyday in the 1950s Existential risks around AI and bio Government's capacity to grok and implement technology strategy What national security professionals can learn from art and architecture And a ton more. Thanks to Check out the Hudson Institute's defense research center here: https://www.hudson.org/policycenters/center-defense-concepts-technology Some 1950s vibes for our outtro music: Julie London: https://open.spotify.com/track/6crfO56bDm0RjpctUuGs5X?si=5a434079b24b4d03 Doris Day: https://open.spotify.com/track/20G1XJaTwIm2IuwA3Pjg1d?si=22095e2f9aa842cc Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Biden just dropped a 50 page executive order that's going to make the world safe for AI, hopefully? To discuss the sprawling EO we've brought on three CNAS analysts, Vivek Chilukuri, Bill Drexel and Tim Fist. We touch on: Immigration and federal hiring If AI + bio can ever be a safe thing What's going to happen to cloud access What are the hoops you'll need to jump through to train GPT5 and whether they're enough What to do about open source Why Jordan just wants to be an AI czar RSVP to the Los Angeles meetup! https://partiful.com/e/SgjdajUSrD1aEOOrVgXk Outro music (yea I was not going to impose Devo on you all): The B Tune by Bela Fleck https://open.spotify.com/track/6h6vvG1t4xtfP9lkOKzBTv?si=6ec3f32629bd46a2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, Jordan Schneider interviews Markus Anderling and Anton Korinek, two of the coauthors of the paper 'Frontier AI Regulation: Managing Emerging Risks to Public Safety'. They discuss the need for regulation and oversight of advanced AI models, known as frontier models, that have the potential to pose significant risks to public safety and national security. Jordan came in as a skeptic. Will he be convinced? Here's the paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.03718 Here's Markus' song choice: - -- ・ -・・ ・ ・-・・ ・- https://open.spotify.com/album/1NogWso5ElfJe4n8qKSdy9?si=mD9j5WB3TWuFGVkJRBI_Jg Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Defense Minister Li Shangfu just got officially purged. To discuss, we brought on Joel Wuthnow, a fellow at NDU. His research areas include Chinese foreign and security policy, Chinese military affairs, US-China relations, and strategic developments in East Asia. He joined ChinaTalk to discuss Xi Jinping’s recent purges of high-ranking members of the People’s Liberation Army, Xi’s larger vision for the PLA, and what all this internal turmoil might mean for China’s longer-term designs on Taiwan. This was recorded earlier in October. Key insights: Over ten years after coming to power, Xi is still purging corruption from the military, reflecting his continued lack of trust in the PLA; Corruption is historically endemic in the PLA in part because of its incentive structure, which makes graft a prerequisite for rising through the ranks; Xi’s efforts to break up the PLA’s supervisory apparatus have only been partially successful (they’re still the same people even if they’re in a different department); Amid the anti-corruption shakeup, China’s Rocket Force has been successfully developing hypersonic missiles, technology viewed as critical to countering US intervention in a regional conflict over Taiwan; Despite Xi’s apparent distrust of his inner circle of military advisors, an echo chamber–induced invasion of Taiwan is still a live possibility. Joel Wuthnow is a senior research fellow with the National Defense University. Nicholas Welch cohosts. Outtro Music: The Weeknd's take on Drake's Trust Issues https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVCV6hyv7ac Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jason Furman was Obama's CEA chair and a Harvard econ professor, while Kyla is the my favorite economics influencer. We get into: What the deal is with inflation How policymaking is broken and what we need to fix it How Homer would tackle SBF Why goodreads is such a trash website Outtro music: Chocolate Snow, Inflation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9E6F8xMjoA Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Two rabbis on ChinaTalk? What am I even doing? Zohar Atkins of the wonderful Meditations with Zohar podcast alongside Ari Lamm of Bnai Zion come to discuss and process the aftermath of the Oct 7th attack. Outtro music: Ishay Ribo - Seder Ha'Avoda https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECy3CMxShIQ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

BIS just released its revision to the Oct 7 2022 restrictions. Jon of Asianometry, Dylan of Semianalysis, and Doug of Fabricated Knowledge join the pod to discuss why NVIDIA got screwed, why ASML may not have, and what these regs mean for the future of China and AI. Outtro music: Warren G Regulate remix https://soundcloud.com/dj-eric-rhodes/warren-wallen-mashup-final-edit Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Israel is a country dear to my heart and I wanted to provide the ChinaTalk audience with one more perspective on the events of this past weekend before returning to our regularly scheduled program. To that end, I'm running a guest episode from the Promised Podcast, a show from TLV1 which is "an inside view of how Israel can warm your heart and make your blood boil. It’s a show by a journalist, a professor and an NGO professional who live in and love Israel even though it drives them crazy, and who each week discuss the latest in Israeli politics, culture, and society." Thanks for listening. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We discuss their experience of the past few days, China's response, its broader policy and aspirations in the Middle East, and what comes next. Our first guest is Carice Witte who is the founder and director of the SIGNAL Group. Second in the episode is Ofir Dayan, a researcher at the Israel-China Policy Center at INSS. Outtro music: World Champion, sung by family members and victims of terrorism https://youtu.be/yofkk5Vaif8?si=JskMFXK3-srR5z8L Lyrics translation: I'm a world champion in repressing Anything that scares me, anything stressful, I put on mute I'm a world champion in loving Firstly myself, then at the stage and the street The hardest is to give it to someone close I'm a world champion in not being In not solving your problems Even the pictures on the walls I wasn't the one who hanged them I'm only in charge of the melodies   I'm a world champion in falling And getting back up like a champ You'll see, like a phoenix I'm burning, but choosing every day to live on I'm a world champion in wanting At least trying You'll see, how in the end After the losses, the victory is so much sweeter I'm a world champion   I'm a world champion in justifying Weaknesses and desires The urge is an old acquaintance I know every old trick it keeps in its bag But look, someday I'll be righteous Deep down what I have is not enough, at all I'm a little rat and life is a pipe1 Falling down the hole because I can't distinguish Between good and evil, and where does it all lead to You're being all usual But soon we'll run out of fuse   I'm a world champion in falling And getting back up like a champ You'll see, like a phoenix I'm burning, but choosing every day to live on I'm a world champion in wanting At least trying You'll see, how in the end After the losses, the victory is so much sweeter I'm a world champion   I'm a world champion in compensating Apologizing and pleasing Sinning, cleansing myself Exposing, covering up Say, how can one write songs with a thousand expectations Millions of views   I'm a world champion in falling And getting back up like a champ You'll see, like a phoenix I'm burning, but choosing every day to live on I'm a world champion Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kurt Campbell is the Deputy Assistant to the President and the White House Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs. ChinaTalk recently joined Campbell in Washington to discuss US-China relations and mark the podcast’s 300th episode. We discuss: The nature of national power today; If China is peaking; How ideology impacts Beijing’s foreign policy; Campbell’s hopes and fears for the Biden administration’s Asia policy; Whether the US is still aiming to “maintain as large of a lead as possible” on chips and AI; How to think about the risk of and effectively deter military escalation; And the dark shadow of Tiananmen and its lasting impact on Chinese politics and US foreign policy. Outtro music: Brahms: Sonata in E flat major for Viola and Piano, Op. 120, No. 2 I. Allegro amabile https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYrC4rx5VrA Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

James Wang, partner at Creative Ventures, joins to discuss: Huawei breakthrough implications and why NVIDIA's CUDA will make it particularly difficult to create a useful domestic AI chip Why China's AI companies have been underperforming my expectations How semiconductor industry dynamics parallel the challenges facing AI startups How pizza machines explain AI's future impact on the labor market Challenges and opportunities in investing in deep tech, including the eager but raw founder talent pool as well as the importance of market structure and distinguishing between R&D and engineering risk This show was brought to you by Creative Ventures. Creatives Ventures is at https://creativeventures.vc/ James writes at https://weightythoughts.com/ and tweets at @AJamesWang Outtro Music: the legendary Combination Pizza Hut and Taco Bell Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Noah Smith of https://www.noahpinion.blog/ and Matt Klein of https://theovershoot.co/ join ChinaTalk to discuss: We get into: What's really happening with China's economy and why it matters strategically How China's potential peak parallels Japan's Why the world should and shouldn't be scared of China's progress in semis and EVs What another Trump Administration could do for US-China relations How Noah actually does his substack This was a fun one, I hope you enjoy! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Huawei’s breakthrough Kirin 9000s: what is it, why is it a big deal, and what if anything should the US do about it? Joining me, I have on two fantastic semiconductor analysis, Doug O'Laughlin of Fabricated Knowledge and Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis. We get into: How this chip illustrates Chinese engineering excellence and the porous nature of the current export control regime Why we can expect AI chips on par with the A100 coming out of China in the next two years What steps the US government could take to tighten export controls and set back the Chinese semiconductor ecosystem How China has come to dominate both the lagging edge and the EV space Here's my piece on the topic: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/huaweis-breakthrough-the-strategic And here's Dylan's: https://www.semianalysis.com/p/china-ai-and-semiconductors-rise Outtro music: 潮州土狗 - 50元的檳榔 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjl2qabfSNs Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode of China Talk explores the past, present, and future of Congress with AEI's Philip Wallach. We get into: Origins of representative government trace back to medieval England, when the king consulted regional advisors – leading to development of Parliament Founders inspired by this model when establishing Congress, wanting representation for diverse parts of young U.S. But competing visions emerged for how Congress should work: Madison's view: embrace factional conflict and compromise Wilson's view: stronger centralized leadership These tensions played out through different eras of Congress: Early years: backlash against Hamilton’s Treasury power leads to first political party New Deal/WWII: Congress oversees executive branch while enabling key programs Civil rights era: Senate leaders allow extended filibuster, focus national attention, build enduring coalition 1970s reforms decentralize Congress but decrease cooperation between members over time Under 1994 Gingrich revolution, partisan centralization becomes norm – embraced by both parties Potential futures discussed, including a fever dream of Philip's where an immigration crisis actually prompts real lawmaking. Outtro music: Nixon's 1972 campaign song Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How does the public, corporations, academia and civil society end up directly influencing some of China's most important regulations? What's the trajectory of China's approach to AI? Matt Sheehan of CIEP returns to discuss the AI regulatory policy process in China! Matt's paper: https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/07/10/china-s-ai-regulations-and-how-they-get-made-pub-90117 Outtro music: 曾涵江Cup ：天选 CHOSEN ONE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OB607_3sDYQ Image: I took an image from Dunhuang and prompted it with "artificial intelligence" Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Emily Benson (CSIS) and Martin Chorzempa (PIIE) come on to discuss the new executive order and Treasury's ANRPM (advanced notice of proposed rulemaking) on novel outbound investment screening rules on AI, quantum and semis. Treasury document: https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/206/Treasury-ANPRM.pdf Outtro music: 水碾河南三街 LSGCsikoriot https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Wzz1Deafh8 Midjourney: used this 18th century Japanese woodprint and prompted it with "quantum semiconductor" https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/55371 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Culture month continues with some traditional Chinese painting coverage! What was it like to paint in premodern China? How did a husband-wife and master-mentee team up to produce some remarkable art? Why is it okay to say Chinese art is "good" or "bad" while those who critique western art have so much heartburn over saying their opinion? Cohosting is Joseph Scheier-Dolberg, Chinese paintings curator at the MET. This episode is better experienced on YouTube. Check out the video on ChinaTalk's YouTube channel here: https://youtu.be/Rxr6xOj29A8 Here's the link to the exhibit: https://www.metmuseum.org/exhibitions/learning-to-paint/exhibition-objects Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Should democracies band together to protect themselves from Chinese economic coercion? What can deterrence theory teach us about geoeconomic strategy? To discuss these questions, I brought on Matt Goodman and Matt Reynolds of CSIS along with Matt Klein of The Overshoot and David Talbot of the Milken Institute. We discuss: –Why China uses economic coercion, especially against smaller states. –How democracies might join together to deter and respond to this aggression. –Why reslience beats retaliation when it comes to economic conflict. Outro music: "(You're The) Devil in Disguise," Elvis Presley. Check out our newsletter! chinatalk.media Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This August, ChinaTalk is going to take a bit of a break from our usual routine of tech and politics coverage to spend some time with Chinese culture! Starting us off is Jake Newby of the Concrete Avalanche substack who will be taking us through a radio hour of some of the most interesting independent music coming out of China. Here's the playlist: Intro music: Voision Xi - 'Too Late to Complain' from Five Loops in Her Way. More on that EP here; listen to Voision's jazz record Lost For Words here. 1. Voision Xi - 'Catch the Train' from Eating Music's Running With Friends. More on that compilation here. 2. Vii M - 'Man O' War (Cocoonics remix)' from The Other Side of Sublunary (The Remixes). More on Vii M and Sublunary here. 3. Lygort Trio - '藏身之处' from Lygort Trio. More on them here. 4. Hualun - 'Cities of the Red Night' from Tempus. More on Tempus here. 5. Zhou Shijue - '幸福来的这么自然‘ from 应运而生. More on his record with J-Fever and Eddie Beatz here. 6. 33EMYBW - 'The Unheard Southern Mountains' from Long May the Water Flow. More on that compilation here. 7. Li Daiguo - '小精灵幼儿园放学' from 吥哔呢未来音:奇幻童年. 8. Zhaoze - 'Stand in Wind' from No Answer Blowin' in the Wind. More on that album here. 9. Ὁπλίτης - 'Ὁ τῶν τραυμάτων ἄγγελος' from Τρωθησομένη. More on Hoplites here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How is the DoD thinking about deploying AI? What are the challenges and opportunities involved in building out AI assurance? To discuss, I brought on Dr. Jane Pinelis, Chief AI Engineer The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. She was previously the Chief of the Test, Evaluation, and Assessment branch at the Department of Defense Joint Artificial Intelligence Center (JAIC). Prior to joining the JAIC, Dr. Pinelis served as the Director of Test and Evaluation for USDI’s Algorithmic Warfare Cross-Functional Team, better known as Project Maven. Cohosting is Karson Elmgren of CSET. Outtro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgzGwKwLmgM Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Until yesterday, Qin Gang 秦刚 was serving as China’s Minister of Foreign Affairs. But on Monday, July 24, the National People’s Congress Standing Committee announced an emergency meeting for the next day, July 25, during which Qin was “removed” 免职 (albeit not “dismissed” 撤职) from his position as China’s #2 diplomat. To dissect the rumors and make sense of it all, we have on Matt Brazil — a senior China analyst at BluePath Labs, writer for SpyTalk, fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, and longtime friend ChinaTalk. (Check out our January 2021 show with Matt!) We discuss: Precisely what we know and don’t know about l’affaire Qin; How journalist Fu Xiaotian 傅晓田 is wrapped up in all of this — and how those with CCP connections somehow end up with private jets and buy-ins to elite universities; Qin’s possible connections to the Ministry of State Security — and why that might rub his subordinates the wrong way; How the CCP has dispensed with previous political elites, and whether Qin’s treatment resembles theirs; and Why it is that sometimes even the heads of CCP security don’t even know what’s going on! Outro music: 我要你的愛, by 葛蘭; “Saving All My Love For You,” by Whitney Houston Check out our newsletter! https://www.chinatalk.media Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

ChinaTalk welcomes Taiwan expert and Hoover research fellow Kharis Templeman. This episode is all things 2024 Taiwan elections — slated for January 13, 2024. In addition to his teaching responsibilities, Kharis is the program manager of the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific, and previously was the program manager of the Taiwan Democracy and Security Project. In this show, we discuss: The frontrunners’ profiles — Lai Ching-te 賴清德, Hou Yu-ih 侯友宜, and Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 — and what makes this three-way race different from previous elections; Why the KMT’s nomination process was somewhat quirky this time around; The importance of party unity, and why some Taiwanese political parties have failed to unify in past election cycles; What’s on Taiwanese voters’ minds — beyond national-security concerns; The CCP’s preferred winner — plus if and how any PRC-based interference may manifest over the coming months; Why Taiwan’s election system is “unhackable”; What to make of the spread of disinformation and hyper-partisanship in Taiwan’s domestic media; And some pro tips on escaping the DC bubble and understanding the Taiwanese populace. Outro music: Bubble Tea, by Mango Street Papa 芒果街老爸 Check out our newsletter, too! https://www.chinatalk.media Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

• How did the Chinese EV industry become so dominant? • What institutional and cultural factors shape China’s auto market? • What can Western democracies learn from Chinese industrial policy? To discuss these questions, I brought on GWU professor John Helveston, an expert in tech and innovation policy and Chinese electric vehicles. Outro music:  https://open.spotify.com/track/4QQEzkxcONBthDLfzqIh9S?si=2af235017c8c4449 Photo: Peter Parks/AFP/Getty Images Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What companies beyond OpenAI matter to the future of AI? What is the relationship between closed and open source source? When will researchers lose the reins to government on AI's trajectory? To discuss, this week I brought on Matt Lynley of the fantastic Supervised News substack as well as Lux Capital's Danny Crichton. Jade Leung's thesis: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:ea3c7cb8-2464-45f1-a47c-c7b568f27665 Outtro music: https://open.spotify.com/track/2opgXfgG4tdM2fuHiamoaG?si=e1eabaf135d846d3 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Foreign aid is dominated by just a few huge players that receive the bulk of grants from the US government. But is bigger better? And are local players with innovative solutions to global issues missing out? Unlock Aid wants to see smaller stakeholders get access to more funding and seats at the table. The group’s executive director, Walter Kerr and COO Amanda Arch explain why. We also discuss: How much the US spends on foreign aid each year and who gets that money. How to make the distribution of foreign aid more efficient. Why Unlock Aid wants to break down the barriers to accessing public funding. How AI could be used in foreign aid. China’s latest attempts to restrict data access to international researchers. Outro music: 好了啦 (Piss Off) by 鼓鼓呂思緯 (GBOYSWAG) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3D-ixUMcTPY Check out the Substack at ChinaTalk.media! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Paul Huang, Taiwan military expert and research fellow at the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation, returns to ChinaTalk! Today he gives us an update on Taiwan’s military readiness, the PLA’s expansion, and whether Xi Jinping would really send it. If you missed his episode back in 2020, give it a listen, too. And check out his recent thoughts posted on NBR, as well as his long-form special report, “Threats to Taiwan’s Security from China’s Military Modernization.” In this episode, we cover: The status quo of Taiwan’s reservist forces and command-and-control capabilities — and how Western countries perceive that status quo; How the PLA’s military capabilities stack up against Russia’s performance in the Ukraine war thus far; What insights we can glean from PLA-facing propaganda; Why Ukrainian forces have been successful in repelling the Russian military thus far, and why Xi Jinping would loathe a protracted war over Taiwan; Paul’s take on the PLA’s recent military maneuvers against US and Canadian assets in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea; What the Taiwanese populace believes about PLA military action, US military support for Taiwan — and why these trends have changed over time; China’s robust satellite expansion program, and how it plays a role in its aircraft carrier “kill chain”; Likely and unlikely PLA invasion scenarios — and the corresponding discussions that would occur in the White House; What Taiwan military officials — like Admiral Lee Hsi-ming (Ret.) 李喜明 — think about Taiwan’s military readiness for an invasion. If you liked the podcast, make sure to hop on our newsletter, too! https://www.chinatalk.media Outro music: 逆光 - Kimberley Chen 陳芳語 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDw1B_hWwbw This interview was taped on June 16, 2023, in Taipei. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What happened over the past few days in Russia? What does this mean for the future of Putin and the war in Ukraine? To discuss, I recorded today a show with Kamil Galeev, a PKU classmate of mine formerly of the Wilson Center. Outtro music: Repo Man, Coup d'etat https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJjuVzZQj0U Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Blinken went to China to meet with Qin Gang, Wang Yi, and Xi himself! What happened, why does it matter, and does this make it any less likely we'll be in WWIII anytime soon? Do discuss, I bought on Dali Yang, political science professor at UChicago, and Nathaniel Sher of Carnegie. Subscribe to ChinaTalk at https://chinatalk.substack.com/! Outtro music (a two-parter!): Selena Gomez: Lose You to Love Me https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlJDTxahav0 Beyonce: Start Over https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJAXC1lz65I Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We're talking Chinese TV this week on ChinaTalk! Hollywood writer Trey Kollmer and ChinaTalk editor Irene Zhang discuss farming reality tv, a dongbei murder, and some super creative animated content out of Bilibili. Farmer show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fklN-OnYuGc Dongbei show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xs0OJVemJz4 Animated show: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL0gnw1pNh6C1yA3EUU-aQrOjI3hvBC7oQ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Doug O'Laughlin of the Fabricated Knowledge substack and I discuss: NVIDIA's corporate history and how it arrived at such a dominant position today What makes it so irreplacable in the coming AI revolution The national competitiveness implications of NVIDIA in a US-China context Outtro music: 邓典果DDG/李尔新 -《帅到没朋友》 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CqvpDd1xK0 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Michele Flournoy, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy under Obama, CNAS founder, and co-founder of WestExec Advisors, returns to ChinaTalk to discuss: How the Biden Administration is trying to re-engage with China Reflections on innovation in defense, AI, and the war in Ukraine ChinaTalk meetup in NYC this Friday! https://partiful.com/e/taNb35oaCKjglbHHdEA1 Reuters reporting: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/why-us-delayed-china-sanctions-after-shooting-down-spy-balloon-2023-05-11/ New Yorker piece: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/05/29/two-weeks-at-the-front-in-ukraine Socila history of the machine gun: https://www.amazon.com/Social-History-Machine-Gun/dp/0801833582 Outtro music: the great Tina Turner with Marvin Gaye: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTsy-uPvQoY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Pentagon has a new tech strategy! What does it say, what impact will it have, and what do its authors think about technological change and warfare? Dr. Nina Kollars, advisor to Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering (OUSD(R&E)) Heidi Shyu, and R&E’s Chief Data Officer Cyrus Jabbari join us to discuss in a wide ranging and at times philosophical conversation about the challenges of peacetime innovation critical technology lists lessons from the origins of the machine gun and development of modern fighter jets What Cezanne and Picasso can teach us about military innovation (from this piece https://warontherocks.com/2017/03/when-clausewitz-meets-cezanne-mastery-and-the-art-of-future-war/) NYC ChinaTalk Meetup! https://partiful.com/e/taNb35oaCKjglbHHdEA1 Here's the strategy: https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3389118/dod-releases-national-defense-science-and-technology-strategy/ R&E’s Chief Data Offcer yrHerus Jabbari Music: a guy banging on pots and pans https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQEedhz9ERs Midjourney is a prompt of an F16 with this late 19th century Japanese calligraphy https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/55820 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dan Faggella, who for ten years has interviewed business leaders about the challenges of implementing AI, joins ChinaTalk to discuss about just how hard it is to get AI to diffuse across an economy. We also get into: Why the past ten years of AI hasn't lived up to its promise The technological, bureaucratic, and cultural challenges of corporate AI diffusion Which sectors are most and least likely to adopt quickly NYC ChinaTalk meetup: https://partiful.com/e/taNb35oaCKjglbHHdEA1 Music: Uyghur drill, Ahh? Ohh! by Athree https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdfgc2yr9Co Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jeff Ding is the leading US scholar on China and AI and author of one of the earliest China-focused Substacks, ChinAI. He recently published a fire paper called, “The diffusion deficit in scientific and technological power: re-assessing China’s rise.” It makes the argument that diffusion capacity (not just innovation capacity) is critical to economic growth — and China actually fares much worse in diffusion capacity than mainstream narratives imply. In particular, “In cases when the emerging power has a strong innovation capacity but weak diffusion capacity (diffusion deficit), it is less likely to sustain its rise than innovation-centric assessments depict. Conversely, when the emerging power possesses a strong diffusion capacity but weak innovation capacity (diffusion surplus), it is more likely to sustain its rise than innovation-centric assessments portray.” Mainstream narratives, meanwhile, “only compare the U.S. and China’s ability to produce new innovations, neglecting their ability to effectively use and adopt emerging technologies. By revealing the gap between China’s innovation capacity and diffusion capacity, this paper argues that innovation-centric assessments mistakenly inflate China’s S&T power.” NYC ChinaTalk Meetup: https://partiful.com/e/taNb35oaCKjglbHHdEA1 Cohosting is Teddy Collins, formerly of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and DeepMind. Outtro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17Y7-gm8STI midjourney prompt: "frank quietly industrial revolution" Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

PJ Maykish, Abigail Kukura, and Will Moreland from the Future Technologies platform team of the Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP) join the conversation to discuss critical technologies and the development of a national technology strategy. The guests provide insights into how the United States can create a comprehensive technology strategy that prioritizes the development of critical technologies to compete with China. They also discuss the importance of international collaboration in the development of emerging technologies and the challenges faced in building consensus among different stakeholders. This is the paper we primarily discuss: Platforms-Panel-IPR.pdf (scsp.ai) Vishnu Kannan of Carnegie cohosts. Midjourney art: the prompt is "A Bauhaus poster for a production of Shakespeare's Hamlet. Featuring a young man looking out from a turret on a castle out towards the sea" but I thought it has a bit of a tech forecasting vibe! Music by the great Cab Calloway: Hi De Ho Man - YouTube Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On Monday, May 1, I interviewed Virgina Senator Mark Warner. We get into the RESTRICT Act, state capacity to analyze emerging technologies, the future of industrial policy, the nature and limits to bipartisanship around China, as well as the government’s role in regulating artificial intelligence. Check out the ChinaTalk newsletter for a full transcript! https://www.chinatalk.media/ Art via midjourney prompt: corporate America’s naïveté vis-à-vis China Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

J. Edgar Hoover was a controversial figure who served as the director of the FBI for nearly five decades. In this episode, we explore his life and legacy with Beverly Gage, a professor of 20th-century U.S. history and author of the Bancroft Prize-winning biography "G-Man: J. Edgar Hoover and the Making of the American Century." We discuss The context in which Hoover developed his anti-communist worldview, and how this shaped his approach to law enforcement. The deportation of anarchists to Bolshevik Russia. Similarities between Hoover and Xi Jinping. The role of FBI informants, including one who met with Mao Zedong. Outro music: G-Man Hoover by Van Dyke Parks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E566LbON5QA Check out ChinaTalk.media for transcripts, analysis and more! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How did Xi Jinping’s formative years influence how he views the world today? Veteran China scholar Orville Schell, the Arthur Ross Director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations, looks back at decades of writing and working on China, weathering the cycles of the country opening up and shutting down and gives his two cents on what’s going on in Xi’s head. We also discuss —  Why Mao Zedong is a better read than Xi — China’s reciprocity problem on the international stage — How US officials reacted to Tiananmen in a secret meeting with Deng Xiaoping — A history of accessing China for academics, businesspeople and journalists — Xi and victim culture Outro Music: Glenn Gould performing Contrapunctus, I, IV from Bach’s amazing Art of the Fugue https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqDCieiDWAE Check out the newsletter at ChinaTalk.media! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Stephen Roach is a Yale professor with extensive experience in China. He also taught the first China class I ever took, so it may be fair to say he's partially to blame for the entire ChinaTalk enterprise. In our conversation (taped on February 23), we discuss: The nexus between US-China relations and the DSM-5 (we need some relationship therapy!); How false narratives strangle effective diplomatic development; What Stephen thinks about the odds of a hot conflict over Taiwan; Practical proposals to improve the bilateral relationship, including what a “US-China Secretariat” (based in neutral Tahiti, obviously) would look like; Is it the US or China — or both — who fundamentally has no interest in engagement? Apologies for my audio quality in the second half of the show. Outro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRM70Jw7F4M You all should check out the ChinaTalk newsletter! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What actually is foreign influence, and how might Canada handle China’s interference in its domestic affairs? Akshay Singh is a research associate at the Centre for International Policy Studies at the University of Ottawa. We discuss: How to roll out a foreign agent registry; The role of the US-Canada relationship; Whether foreign influence is a diaspora problem; And performance reviews for the United Front’s Canada desk. Akshay on how democracies should respond to foreign influence: https://www.cigionline.org/articles/faced-with-foreign-interference-how-should-democracies-respond/ Outtro music: 公公偏頭痛 by Jay Chou https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DU-RuR-qO4Y Please consider supporting ChinaTalk on Patreon at www.patreon.com/chinatalk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Paul Scharre, Vice President and Director of Studies at CNAS, joins ChinaTalk to discuss AI, military, strategy, and US-China geopolitics. Listen in for a discussion on: How AI will impact the tactical, operational and strategic levels of war How and why AI operates — whether in chess, Dota 2, or aerial dogfighting — in fundamentally different ways than humans; Why AI called for a “protective response from the bureaucracy” The significance of the US’s comparative advantage over China in talent and compute — two of Scharre’s “Four Battlegrounds”; The dictator’s dilemma, and how advances in AI will challenge the CCP in the coming years; When in China, how to interview like a pro! Outro music: a missy elliot + spice girls mix from Arthi, a UK-based DJ who's also an economics correspondent for the times of london! https://youtu.be/iHkfmwy1-OI?t=252 Paul’s latest bestseller: https://www.amazon.com/Four-Battlegrounds-Power-Artificial-Intelligence/dp/0393866866 The cover image is Midjourney on “Dota 2–inspired F-35 dogfight” You should all subscribe to the ChinaTalk newsletter! https://www.chinatalk.media/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Chips Avengers assemble once again! Reva Goujon of the Rhodium Group, JP Kleinhans of the European think tank SNV, Jay Goldberg of Digits and Dollars, and Dylan Patel, who writes SemiAnalysis. In this episode of ChinaTalk, we all: Deep dive into the CHIPS Act's recent Notice of Funding Opportunity (NOFO); Discuss the potentially existential impact of AI on global power dynamics; Consider the true intentions of the October 2022 export controls — from military constraining China to crippling manufacturing in the broader economy; Muse about the potential for a "splinternet" to emerge as countries around the world — in particular, the US, China, EU members states — adopt different standards and regulations for their tech industries; And more! Outro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1_Amc4Ysv0 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kevin Xu, Obama-era White House official and creator of https://interconnect.substack.com/ comes on ChinaTalk to discuss: Our impressions of the House's TikTok hearing Continued cross-border reliances around batteries and cloud computing The missed opportunity of Zhang Yiming's generation of founders GPT4's remarkable translation capabilities Outtro Music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQiOA7euaYA Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Stephen Kotkin is a legendary historian, currently at Hoover, previously at Princeton. Best known for his Stalin biographies, his other works include Uncivil Society, Magnetic Mountain, and Armageddon Averted. Our discussion on China is far-ranging yet in-depth — we manage to pack in: The two dominant subjects taught at the CCP’s Central Party School; Kotkin’s assessment of the main threat to Communism — what “Communism with a human face” means, and why Gorbachev’s reforms ultimately destroyed Communism in the USSR; Why the CCP fears color revolutions more than, say, NATO expansion — and why Xi snapped on Hong Kong in 2020; The twin components of Marxism-Leninism: anti-capitalism + anti-imperialism; And an understanding of Lenin’s “commanding heights,” and what China’s commanding heights are today; The case for optimism about US-China relations, despite — or because of — the recent ratcheting up of tensions; Why Kotkin believes a US-China Cold War is both good and necessary; How the US can get on the diplomatic “front foot”; Making sense of Reagan’s foreign policy — how he was both a “movement conservative” and a “dealmaking conservative.” Outro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4GLAKEjU4w. Check out the newsletter and other ChinaTalk content at https://www.chinatalk.media/. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How will GPT4 change the world? What implications does it have for policy, economics, and society? How will US-China 'racing dynamics' play out and what are the implications for AI safety? To discuss, I've brought together the AI Justice League: Zvi of 'Don't Worry About the Vase', Nathan Labenz of Waymark, and Matthew Mittelsteadt of Mercatus. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dennis Wilder returns to ChinaTalk — this time with some broader thoughts on how the US intelligence community can rise to the occasion vis-à-vis China. In particular, we discuss: The importance of government hiring those with experience living in China; Contributions that the Foreign Broadcast Intelligence Service (FBIS) has made to China intelligence, and why it should be reinstated; A serious request to make an ChatGPT as good as Alice Miller is at analyzing CCP documents; https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/clm57-am-final.pdf Why the State Department has established China House and the CIA has established the China Mission Center; What we can learn from Richard Danzig’s Driving in the Dark; https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/driving-in-the-dark-ten-propositions-about-prediction-and-national-security%C2%A0 How to maintain robust intelligence capabilities in the long-run; Raymond P. Ludden and the “Dixie Mission” — and why the US needs more Luddens today. https://uschinadialogue.georgetown.edu/essays/we-need-more-luddens Outro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6l6vqPUM_FE Check out the newsletter and other ChinaTalk content at https://www.chinatalk.media/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome back to the second part of my conversation with Nick Mulder and Lars Schönander. Picking the narrative up in 1935, get real in this episode: Why the Great Depression, counterintuitively, made importing commodities cheaper, and how that affected Germany’s and Japan’s protectionism; The difference between autarky and autarchy; Whether Kim Jong-un’s North Korea could survive a full-on fuel embargo today by using Nazi-era technology; Nick’s definition of “temporal claustrophobia,” and what it has to do with Japan ultimately siding with the Axis; Parallels between the “ABCD circle” (America, Britain, China, Dutch East Indies) and the semiconductor export controls today; Why having an empire was a liability for Britain; What sanctions had to do with the Czechoslovaks — even with a larger army — falling to the Nazis; How the blockades of WWI differed from WWII; And what lessons pro-decouplers should learn from this history of sanctions. Nick’s book recommendations: https://www.amazon.com/Athene-Palace-Rosie-G-Waldeck/dp/1592110088 https://www.amazon.com/World-Late-Antiquity-150-750-Civilization/dp/0393958035 https://www.amazon.com/Thirty-Years-Review-Books-Classics/dp/1590171462 https://www.amazon.com/Complete-Maisky-Diaries-Volumes-Communism/dp/0300117825 Nick’s excellent book: https://www.amazon.com/Economic-Weapon-Rise-Sanctions-Modern/dp/0300259360 Outro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5mdvyIqrs4 Check out the newsletter and other ChinaTalk content at https://www.chinatalk.media/. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today we’re releasing part one of our a two-part conversation with Nick Mulder, a history professor at Cornell and author of The Economic Weapon: The Rise of Sanctions as a Tool of Modern War — a Foreign Affairs Best Book of 2022. With cohost Lars, Schönander, we discuss: The recent advent of the use of sanctions (for example, in the Crimean War, Britain continued to fulfill payments to Russia, the nation it was fighting right then!) Why Europeans were reluctant to employ blockades and sanctions in the early twentieth century, and how their thinking evolved through two world wars How Wilson’s notion of “moral sanctions” and decision to keep blockades in place after the war were important to the development of sanctions, especially during the interwar period The League of Nations’ efforts to establish a “positive sanctions” fund, and why the concept never took off Nick’s take on why Hoover is underrated When and why Italy almost fought a war against Germany over Austria Stay tuned for part two, when we connect this sanctions history to implications to US-China relations today! Nick’s excellent book: https://www.amazon.com/Economic-Weapon-Rise-Sanctions-Modern/dp/0300259360 Outro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzd4VtkNjmc Check out the newsletter and other ChinaTalk content at chinatalk.media. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Data scientist Bryan Cheong breaks down how AI actually works, creating video using AI and how the technology is being used beyond image and language models. Also, I've got a meetup March 7th in Palo Alto! https://partiful.com/e/dVY7k51xQX4WhNr6AUcH Joined by Zheng, we also discuss: The farmers in India using AI for marketing Denoising and weights, the tech behind AI image generation tools What's next for developments in AI Singapore's tech scene Outro music: 我說所有的酒都不如你 by 房東的貓 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2zj74iK1MI Check out the newsletter and other ChinaTalk content at chinatalk.media. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today we’re going to do a show about the scariest US-China news story I’ve seen in years, that “The US has intelligence that the Chinese government is considering providing Russia with drones and ammunition for use in the war in Ukraine.” Would China really arm Russia, and if so what will that mean for the world if the US and China end up on opposite sides of a proxy war? To discuss this I have on today Georgetown’s, Dennis Wilder, a longtime CIA veteran who served as an NSC director on the China desk under the bush administration and spent six years under Obama editing the presidential daily brief before concluding his career in government as the CIA’s deputy assistant director for East Asia and the Pacific. Outtro Music: Ukranian rap https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgDXAAh-cXw Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With AI on the verge of transforming the world, how are regulators across the globe approaching the challenges the technology might pose? Also, what does US-China AI collaboration look like today, and will it get caught up in broader tensions in the relationship? Matt Sheehan and Hadrien Pouget, who are both at Carnegie, come on to discuss. Matt's paper on US-China collaboration: https://www.brookings.edu/research/can-democracies-cooperate-with-china-on-ai-research/ Matt's work on Chinese algorithmic regulation: https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/12/09/what-china-s-algorithm-registry-reveals-about-ai-governance-pub-88606 Hadrien's article about the EU: https://www.lawfareblog.com/eus-ai-act-barreling-toward-ai-standards-do-not-exist Outtro Music: Monkey Bee: A Short Film by Jamie Hewlett https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y90ONojCc6Q Subscribe to the newsletter! https://www.chinatalk.media/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

William 'Balloon Guy' Kim returns for a roundup of the past few days of news around the Chinese spy balloon and unidentified object shooting. We share our favorite theories of what on earth is going on and what this all means for US-China relations. Subscribe to the ChinaTalk newsletter! https://www.chinatalk.media/ Outtro Music: Sammy Davis Jr's Up Up and Away https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hYNMZtxJoU Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey ChinaTalk listeners, this year we’re going to do something new—occasional episodes in Mandarin! While getting mainland guests to talk about more conventional topics like US-China relations and export controls has been nearly impossible, I think doing more slice of life/business stories about odd corners of China in the pale imitation of Gushi FM is both fun and enriching to our coverage. In this episode, you’ll hear from the founder of mechanical keyboard manufacturer Meletrix, Simba Hua, about why people like to make their own keyboards, the challenges and wonders of working with the Chinese keyboard supply chain, and customer preferences between East Asian and western keyboard fans. Cohosting with me is Irene Zhang, one of ChinaTalk’s editors. You can find more of her writing, and more ChinaTalk in general, on our newsletter at https://www.chinatalk.media/. And if you can’t understand Chinese, not to worry, we’ll be running a translated transcript later this month on the newsletter! Outtro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hlp8XD0R5qo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How does one organization turn expert knowledge into real policy change? Dan Correa, CEO of the Federation of American Scientists and Founder of the Day One Project, discusses the power of policy entrepreneurship and shares examples of the ideas his nonprofit helped turn into legislation.  We'll delve into the nitty-gritty of policymaking and explore topics such as: How to make meetings with government officials more productive.  The importance of pre-work in preparing good ideas and the role experts can play in shaping policy.  Why it's sometimes better to focus on practical solutions rather than comprehensive strategies.  Why think tanks always feel the need to create comprehensive, hundred-page strategies. Article about the creation of the development finance corporation: https://www.cgdev.org/publication/how-might-think-tanks-make-real-things-happen-lessons-creation-dfc Check out the Substack at ChinaTalk.media. Cover art is midjourney taking a rothko that I then prompted with "innovation" Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What do we talk about when we talk about tech policy? What are the weird corners of the chips and science bill? How is talent policy broken and what can anyone do about it? And broadly, if you want to change the world through better regulatory and executive action, how do you go about this? To discuss all that we have Divyansh Kaushik, a newly minted PhD from Carnegie Mellon currently at the Federation for American Scientists focusing on emerging tech policy. He was also closely involved with the chips and science bill negotiations.  We talk about - How to talk to lawmakers and share your thoughts on legislation - The complex visa system for foreign workers in the US - The thousands of green cards that never get used.  Outro music: When the Levee Breaks  By Led Zepplin https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwiTs60VoTM Midjourney art prompted with 'innovation' from this painting https://www.moma.org/collection/works/180114?sov_referrer=art_term&art_term_slug=painting Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Chinese balloons over Wyoming!! To discuss, we have on today William 'Balloon Guy' Kim of the Marathon Initiative, Eric Lofgren of AcquisitionTalk, and Gerard Dipippo of CSIS. Intro Music: Up Up and Away, The 5th Fifth Dimension https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5akEgsZSfhg Outro Music: NENA | 99 Luftballons [1983] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fpu5a0Bl8eY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Love it or hate it, AI capabilities continue to advance. As futurists imagine how this technology may one day be used, how it develops and who will be able to access AI tools will also depend on who funds AI projects and what hardware will be needed to get it to work. Lennart Heim is a researcher at the Center for the Governance of AI and the author of a fantastic AI compute syllabus primer, which I have just spent the past few weeks obsessed with. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1DF31DIkwS9GONzmy1W3nuI9HRAwSKy8JcIbzKYXg-ic/edit?usp=sharing Joining as co-host is Chris Miller, author of the FT business book of the year Chip War - The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology. We discuss: How much does it cost to develop an AI system? The competition for access to specialized AI chips. Whether investing heavily in large AI models is financially viable. Chip smuggling versus cocaine smuggling. Outro music: 年度专辑 by AR刘夫阳 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifkVhOQYnO0 Check out the Substack at chinatalk.media Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

China v Taiwan: who would win? Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow and director of research at Brookings. He specializes in U.S. defense strategy, the use of military force, and American national security policy. We discuss The limits of scenarios that predict the outcome of a China-Taiwan conflict. What are intercontinental rail guns? How sports teams that play each other in the same year can have different outcomes - and what this says about predictability. Given all this, what’s the point of modelling exercises? Mike's paper: https://www.brookings.edu/research/can-china-take-taiwan-why-no-one-really-knows/ My paper: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/E2BghQq9pwPgtHgiH/war-between-the-us-and-china-a-case-study-for-epistemic Outro music: Battle Cry of Freedom by George Root https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bW4ZwyYJYbQ Check out the Substack at ChinaTalk.media! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode is sponsored by Policyware. Check out Samm's class at https://www.policyware.org/chinatalk How do Chinese cyber laws and regulations affect multinational companies, and US-China relations? Samm Sacks of Yale Law School walks us through the latest developments in this arena — we discuss: Why Chinese data policy has been on front-page news in the past few years; What China is hoping to gain from its new laws and regulations; The status of TikTok negotiations, and the prospects of a deal given today’s political climate; How the US and China can — yet sometimes don’t — leverage their data policy infrastructure against one another. Outtro music: 回答 - YOUNG 建坤 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5Obr1iXFCs Midjourney is me prompting a Duchamp painting "data privacy" Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Say China wins a war for Taiwan. What happens next? To discuss the political and economic consequences of a PRC takeover of Taiwan, I have on today Jude Blanchette and Gerard Dipippo, both fellows at CSIS. Our conversation builds off their paper https://www.chinatalk.media/p/war-for-taiwan-what-happens-after. We recorded this episode in mid-December. Outtro Music: 水哥 ft. 蛋堡 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nHU9kEYiAQw&list=PLegPxPQebljkJOhscK3tLUXfZ9n1lgkwC&index=31 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In 2023, ChinaTalk is going to Congress! First up in our series is Rep. Ro Khanna, Democrat who represents Silicon Valley. We get into: What he hopes the China Committee can accomplish Why ChatGPT let him down What an effective industrial policy looks like Also, I'm hosting a ChinaTalk meetup in DC next week! RSVP here: https://partiful.com/e/Zni1rBY3PFhy6WYFm2VK? Outtro music: Bruce Springsteen, My Hometown https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77gKSp8WoRg Cover Art: I gave midjourney a Miro and told it "US capitol supply chain" Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What can $52bn for semiconductors actually accomplish? To discuss the tensions and tradeoffs underlying the decisions that the US government is about to make on how to spend this money, I have on today Jacob Feldgoise, an analyst at CSET and Vishnu Kannan, who works at the Carnegie Endowment. We'll be discussing their fantastic paper entitled: "The Limits of Reshoring and Next Steps for U.S. Semiconductor Policy." Jacob and Vishnu's paper: https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/11/22/after-chips-act-limits-of-reshoring-and-next-steps-for-u.s.-semiconductor-policy-pub-88439 Subscribe to the ChinaTalk Newsletter!!!!: https://www.chinatalk.media/ Outtro Music: federal funding by Cake https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phHe6aNcocQ Cover art: I fed midjourney a picasso portrait and told it 'semiconductor supply chain' Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As AI becomes increasingly sophisticated, we consider the question of whether there are limits to what computers can know and how this compares to human understanding. Joining me on this episode is Sam Hammond, the director of social policy at the Niskanen Center, and Zohar Atkins, a rabbi and host of the podcast "Meditations with Zohar." We discuss The impact of AI on creativity and human thought. Fears around AI and the centralization of power. The potential for AI to have an egalitarian effect on closing innate and environmental differences such as education and access to information. Whether the creative class will be automated out of their jobs. Outro music: Genesis by Daniela Adrade https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1SJ6KNhA9QY Check out the substack at chinatalk.media Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tyler Cowen of Marginal Revolution makes his ChinaTalk debut! We get into: How AI is going to change art, education, politics and human relationships Why Tyler tried to write a book to explain America to the PRC How babies born in 2023 will see their educations changed by AI; Playing chess against the computer and creativity in the AI era; Religion, American antisemitism, and the movie Her; Writing a book about America for Chinese people; Why China is one of the hardest countries to predict. Outtro Music: Beethoven X, an AI-assisted version of Beethoven's unfinished 10th symphony https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rvj3Oblscqw For more context: smithsonianmag.com/innovation/how-artificial-intelligence-completed-beethovens-unfinished-10th-symphony-180978753/ Image by midjourney seeded with a photo of Tyler. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices