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- 902 - Lots More With Brad Setser on the Yen, a New China Shock and Excavators
There's a lot going on in currency markets and global trade at the moment. The Japanese yen has been falling, even after authorities seemed to intervene to try to arrest the slide. Meanwhile, weakness in the Chinese yuan has helped boost that country's exports and is fueling talk of a new "China Shock" for the rest of the world, even as its economy continues to grapple with slower economic growth and excess capacity. In this episode of Lots More, we bring back Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, to walk us through these developments, along with his new paper, "Power and Financial Interdependence." We also talk about what China's excavator exports can tell us about its economy.
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Fri, 10 May 2024 - 901 - Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation
Hugh Hendry says the world is brimming with risks right now, from Chinese deflation, to the strength of the US dollar, to unrealized losses in US Treasuries held by the bank. In the new episode of the podcast, we speak with the former manager of the Eclectica hedge fund, who now writes and operates under the Acid Capitalist branding. Hendry, who now resides in St. Bart's, says that the most important story in the world, and for as long as he's been in markets, has been the rise of China, which he sees as inflating asset values all around the world. Specifically, he sees a broken model, in which the country's GDP grows rapidly, but domestic investments and household income don't keep up. He warns of a risk of a yuan devaluation, as the country seeks to maintain its export drive which, he warns would create "Mad Max" deflation. He also talks about the "terrifying" drop in the Japanese yen, and the unusual situation by which the US is one of the world's growth leaders.
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Thu, 09 May 2024 - 900 - What a Fed President Hears When He Goes on the Road
The Federal Reserve has a lot of official statistics it can look at to try and gauge the state of the overall economy. But there's also room for incorporating on-the-ground anecdotes and real-time color. When it comes to collecting this kind of information, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin might be the biggest road warrior on the FOMC. In mid-April, Odd Lots tagged alongside Barkin as he undertook one of his many trips around his district, speaking to local businesses about what they're seeing in terms of inflation, consumer demand, and the labor market. We traveled with him to North Carolina, making stops in Mount Airy, Winston-Salem and Yadkinville, to better understand what it is that a regional Fed president actually does when he's collecting info on the ground, and how it informs his thinking. It's a rare inside look at the day-to-day work of a Fed president. In this episode, you'll learn what kind of questions Barkin is asking businesses. And you'll learn about some local businesses themselves — everything from carport manufacturing to producing thermal underwear to spinning yarn. We also take a look at some of the big picture challenges facing America's smaller towns, including shrinking populations, a shortage of housing, and the scarcity of essential services like childcare.
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Mon, 06 May 2024 - 899 - Lots More on How CHIPS Act Money Got Awarded
In 2022, Congress passed the CHIPS Act, which set aside tens of billions of dollars in loans and grants in order to encourage companies to build new semiconductor fabs in the United States. We're still very early in the process. It's going to be a long time before we know if the US will become a major player again in the production of advanced chips. But the process is well underway and the bulk of the awards have been officially announced, with much of the money going to Intel, Samsung, TSMC, and others. So how did the grants get allocated — and what's next? On this episode of Lots More, we speak with Bloomberg News reporter Mackenzie Hawkins on the latest developments.
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Fri, 03 May 2024 - 898 - Luis von Ahn Explains How Computers and Humans Learn From Each Other
Breakthroughs in generative AI have created enormous opportunities for humans to learn from computers. We can use them to explain the news, understand historical concepts, fix our coding errors, and so forth. But of course, AI also has to learn from human. The technology digests enormous amounts of written text, and often relies on human feedback to calibrate its models. Luis von Ahn has been at the forefront of these back and forth interactions for years. He is currently the CEO and co-founder of Duolingo, the language learning app, but prior to that, he was one of the original developers of CAPTCHAs, the little puzzles you solve to log into websites and prove that you're a human. And of course, in the process of proving your humanity, you're also training computers to get better at identifying red lights, cross walks, bicycles and wavy letters. On this episode, we discuss the history of his work, the future of CAPTCHAs, the success of Duolingo and how he is using today's advanced AI models in aid of language learnings.
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Thu, 02 May 2024 - 897 - The Ultra Wealthy Have Their Own Separate World of Real Estate
In the past, the most expensive housing in any major city would be connected in some way to the economics of the city itself. If the general market was weak, the high end was also weak. If the general market was strong, then the high end was strong. But increasingly in cities like NYC, Aspen, Dubai, Miami, and elsewhere, the ultra high end exists in a different market, where the rich splash around money at levels which are completely disconnected from the local environment. At these levels, the ultra-wealthy are engaging in a global game of one-upmanship, where a higher price tag, perversely, can make a given property even more tantalizing. On this episode we speak with Hiten Samtani, founder of ten31 Media, which focuses on real estate, about how this market has developed. We talk through the deals, brokers, the buyers, and the general economics of this ultra-premium tier. We also discuss the rise of branded condos -- or those with the Mercedes or Porsche imprimatur -- and how they're reshaping the real estate landscape.
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Mon, 29 Apr 2024 - 896 - An Ex-CIA Officer Explains How to Spot a Lie in Business
When most investors think of due diligence, they think of sifting through years of financial statements and crunching numbers to better understand a company's potential. Not many people think about interrogating senior executives and employees, and asking the right questions to figure out whether they're telling the truth about the business model. In this episode, we speak with Phil 'Dick' Houston, a veteran CIA officer who's been called the human lie detector. Phil literally wrote the book on how to spot lies, and has been a long-time collaborator of entrepreneur and serial acquirer Brad Jacobs, helping him with due diligence on both senior hires and potential investments. In this episode, Phil explains his strategy for identifying deceptive behavior and how it can be applied to the corporate world.
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Fri, 26 Apr 2024 - 895 - Here's Who's Winning the Global Fight for AI Talent
AI is all the rage right now. There are billions of dollars now flowing into the space, with large and small companies all competing to create the next big thing. But in addition to lots of money, building new AI models requires top-tier researchers. So, who's attracting the best? And what does it take to be considered top talent in AI anyway? On this episode we speak with Damien Ma, managing director at MacroPolo, the in-house think tank of the Paulson Institute. Damien helps put together MacroPolo's Global AI Talent Tracker, which monitors the flow of top-tier AI researchers around the world. We discuss who's winning the AI talent war so far, the purported talent drain in China, competition from India, and much more.
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Thu, 25 Apr 2024 - 894 - Josh Wolfe: The ChatGPT of Robotics is Coming
Over the last year or so, probably every venture capitalist has become interested in artificial intelligence. So people are still figuring out what types of business models actually work, and who will end up making money in the space. Josh Wolfe has been at it for a long time. As a co-founder and managing partner at Lux Capital, he's been involved in a number of deals in the space, and is already looking at what's next after the wave of excitement for chatbots since ChatGPT was released. On this episode, we talk to Josh about what he's excited about right now, including robotics, biotech, and maintenance. He tells us that just as ChatGPT opened everyone's eyes to the power of chatbots, a similar moment is coming in the robotics space.
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Mon, 22 Apr 2024 - 893 - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin On Getting Inflation Under Control
At the end of 2023, there was a lot of optimism that the US economy was on that glide path to a soft landing. But at least in the first quarter of this year, inflation has come in hotter than expected. So is this just a speedbump on the way back down to 2%? Or is this a new trajectory for inflation that will make the Federal Reserve rethink its existing approach? On this bonus episode of Odd Lots, we caught up with Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin in Mount Airy, North Carolina, to get his assessment of the latest data, and what it means for policy. He explains why he thinks policy is still restrictive, and why he doesn’t see evidence yet of overheating demand.
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Fri, 19 Apr 2024 - 892 - What AMLO's Legacy Means For Mexico's Upcoming Election
On June 2, 2024, Mexicans will go to the polls to elect a successor to current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. His chosen successor, former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, is the odds-on favorite. But what is AMLO’s legacy exactly? In some sense, economic growth under his administration has been robust. On the other hand, there’s been very little progress on domestic security. He also leaves a legacy of massive spending routed through the military, whose fruits are still undetermined. On this episode, we speak with Bloomberg News reporter Andrea Navarro, who has dug deep into how AMLO has conducted economic policy, his approach to industrial and fiscal policy, and whether Mexico is now in a position to ride the ongoing wave of trade with the US and the nearshoring of international supply chains.
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Fri, 19 Apr 2024 - 891 - How The American Workforce Got Hooked on Adderall
Over the last few years, users of the popular ADHD drug Adderall have been frustrated by regular shortages in getting their prescriptions filled. Various regulatory and supply chain factors have contributed to the inability of producers to keep up with demand. But this raises the question: why is there so much demand in the first place? How did a significant chunk of the labor force -- from tech workers to Wall Streeters -- begin using the drug as an aid for their work and everyday lives? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Danielle Carr, an assistant professor at the Institute for Society and Genetics at UCLA, who studies the history of politics of neuroscience and psychology. We discuss the history of this medicine and related medicines, what it does for the people who take it, and how market forces opened the drug up to almost anyone.
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Thu, 18 Apr 2024 - 890 - How Electric Utilities Will Handle Booming AI Datacenter Demand
For years and years, utilities in the US haven't seen much growth in electricity demand. The economy is generally mature and has been able to grow even without needing much more electrical power. But all that's changing now and a big contributing factor is the boom in datacenter demand. It's particularly acute for AI datacenters, which need more power than traditional datacenters, and are growing like crazy ever since ChatGPT brought generative AI to everyone's collective consciousness. So how will utilities handle the sudden surge in load growth? On this episode, we speak with Brian Janous, co-founder and chief strategy officer at Cloverleaf Infrastructure. Brian spent 12 years at Microsoft, where he was the company's first ever energy-focused hire, so he has seen the rise of datacenter electricity consumption first hand, and how AI is kicking it up even further. He now works alongside utilities to figure out how they'll meet this growing demand. We talk about how there's likely to be more gas plants being built, how datacenters and utilities can get more energy out of existing infrastructure, the politics of AI datacenters, and what this all means for the net-zero commitments of major tech companies.
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Mon, 15 Apr 2024 - 889 - Introducing Money Stuff: The Podcast
The audio companion to Bloomberg Opinion’s beloved Money Stuff column hosted by its author Matt Levine, “whose deadpan style mixes technical elucidation and wit” (NY Times). Once a week, Matt and his friend, Bloomberg News reporter and TV host, Katie Greifeld talk about Wall Street, finance and…other stuff. New episodes every Friday.
Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Sat, 13 Apr 2024 - 888 - Lots More on America's Electrical Components Crisis
In 2021 and 2022, the US economy experienced historic shortages of many different goods. All kinds of consumer, construction, and high-tech components were tough to come by. Since then, most of these shortages have eased or gone away, but there is one category that is still struggling to meet demand: electrical components. Years after the height of the pandemic squeeze, there are still complaints about missing transformers and switchgears, which are crucial for connecting new construction developments to the power grid. So what's going on and how much is this shortage messing up economic activity? On this episode, we speak with commercial real estate developer Chris Hatch, partner at Forza Development, about how the situation is hurting his business. He talks about projects that are entirely finished — except for this one necessary component. We walk through the causes of the problem and how costly the delays are proving to be.
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Fri, 12 Apr 2024 - 887 - Tractor Supply's CEO on How It Escaped the Post-Pandemic Curse
A bunch of companies saw their share prices boom during the pandemic. Peloton surged because no one could go to gyms. Zoom jumped because no one could go to the office, and so on. Since then, many of these companies have come crashing down back down to earth. However, one pandemic winner that has yet to see its stock price mean-revert is Tractor Supply Co. Its shares have been up about 270% since their 2020 lows. The retailer has ridden a demographic and cultural shift as more Millennials move away from cities and decide to become hobby farmers growing their own chickens, vegetables, and fruit. In this episode, we speak with CEO Hal Lawton about the Tractor Supply business model, including how it's bucked the post-pandemic pattern and what it's doing to lock in customers for the long term.
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Thu, 11 Apr 2024 - 886 - Why a Former Freight Broker Is Making a Major Bet on Mexico
US imports from Mexico are surging. Former President Trump's tariffs on China, as well as the renegotiated USMCA treaty, have encouraged supply chains to move to North America. Then Covid hit, and that re-energized interest in "nearshoring" or "friendshoring" as an alternative to China. So how much further can US-Mexico trade go? What kinds of goods are being imported from Mexico? And how does the trade boom interact with Mexico's shaky security situation? On this episode we speak with Matt Silver, the CEO and co-founder of Cargado, which is building technology to facilitate cross-border freight. Silver, a former freight broker with a long history of doing business in Mexico, talks to us about what he's seeing on the ground, who's investing, plus the extraordinarily complicated process of getting goods across the border.
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Mon, 08 Apr 2024 - 885 - Steve Eisman on the Three Big Macro Stories of Our Time
Steve Eisman became a famous name in the investing world due to his prescient bet against the US housing market before 2008, which led to his starring role in Michael Lewis' book The Big Short. These days his investing approach looks a little bit more conventional in his role as a senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman. But he still has big ideas. These days he sees three dominant macro stories for investors: AI, infrastructure and crypto. The last one he just fundamentally rejects. The first two, however, he sees as tailwinds that can potentially last a long time. He's been looking for companies that can capitalize on trends like nearshoring, the Inflation Reduction Act, and power-hungry datacenters. In this episode show, we he discusses where we are in this big cycle. He also tells us about his love of comic books, and what he sees as the core problem with the Marvel franchise.
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Fri, 05 Apr 2024 - 884 - Why Savita Subramanian Thinks Stocks Can Keep Going Higher
When Savita Subramanian, head of US equity strategy at Bank of America, raised her outlook for stocks at the end of last year, there was a lot of skepticism that equities could go any higher. The S&P 500 had already surged on expectations that the Federal Reserve would start cutting rates in 2024. And investors were very excited about AI. Then, in early March, she increased her year-end target for the S&P 500 even further, going from 5,000 to 5,400. Fast forward to the start of April, and the rally has continued even as markets ratcheted down their expectations for rate cuts this year. Of course, there are questions about whether investors are getting ahead of themselves and whether things are starting to feel a little frothy. In this episode, Subramanian explains why she thinks stocks can go up even further from here, how she's thinking about valuations, and why we shouldn't be too worried just yet about a repeat of the early 2000s internet bubble.
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Thu, 04 Apr 2024 - 883 - Why the CRE Urban Doom Loop May Still Be Coming
When it comes to the collapse in office real estate, there's a lot of focus on who owns the debt, and what kind of pain must eventually be realized by someone. But there may be an even deeper challenge for big cities like New York or San Francisco. Office buildings, and the various restaurants and shops that cater to daily workers, are big contributors to the tax base of many cities. What happens if that goes into decline? In theory, you can get a doom loop of population loss leading to lower activity, leading to lower taxes, leading to lower spending, leading to worse public service, leading to more population loss and on and on it goes. So is that still a risk in 2024? On this episode we speak with Arpit Gupta, associate professor of finance at New York University's Stern School of Business, who has been tracking this risk for awhile. He gives an update on where things stand and why some of the pain may still be possible in the future.
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Mon, 01 Apr 2024 - 882 - Lots More on the Parabolic Surge in Cocoa Prices
The cost of cocoa beans has surged to a record $10,000 per metric ton. That's expected to make chocolate more expensive for millions of confectionary fans around the world. But why have prices more than doubled in the past few months alone? And what could halt the surge? We speak with Bloomberg Opinion columnist and Odd Lots favorite Javier Blas. He describes how a combination of chronic underinvestment in cocoa supply has run head first into financial markets to squeeze prices higher.
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Fri, 29 Mar 2024 - 881 - The Mega Corporations That Control What Americans Eat
Walk into a grocery store today and there are seemingly endless shelves of product to choose from. But behind all those different options are a handful of agricultural giants that have grown to dominate the food industry. Companies like Walmart and Cargill are well-known at this point, but there are also dominant players in everything from berries to dairy to pig farming. In this episode, we speak with Austin Frerick, an antitrust and agricultural expert. His new book, Barons: Money, Power, and the Corruption of America's Food Industry, details the behemoths behind American agriculture and how they got so big. He talks about the choices that went into our current agricultural system, the impact of all that concentration, and what can be done to change it.
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Thu, 28 Mar 2024 - 880 - Sal Mercogliano on the Baltimore Bridge Collapse
On March 26th, a massive container ship called the Dali ploughed into Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge, a major overpass just outside the city's port. The collision caused the bridge to dramatically collapse, sparked a search and rescue mission for survivors. It also cut off a busy shipping lane in and out of the Port of Baltimore. So what do we know about the collision? And what could the impacts of the latest maritime disaster actually be? On this emergency episode of Odd Lots, we speak to Sal Mercogliano, a professor at Campbell University and the host of the What Is Going On With Shipping? show on YouTube, about what we know so far.
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Tue, 26 Mar 2024 - 879 - Listen Now: The Big Take
The Big Take from Bloomberg News brings you inside what’s shaping the world's economies with the smartest and most informed business reporters around the world. The context you need on the stories that can move markets. Every afternoon.
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Tue, 26 Mar 2024 - 878 - The Economist Who Believes AI Will Be Great for the Middle Class
AI is an incredibly exciting space, provoking both great wonder and fear. One of the big worries obviously is: What will happen to everyone's job? Will it make more people's livelihoods obsolete, causing even greater inequality than we have now? On this episode, we speak with an economist who argues that this concern is not just misplaced, but exactly wrong. MIT's David Autor, famous for his work on the China shock, contends that the last 40 years of advances in computer technology have been a major driver of inequality, but AI should be seen as an entirely different paradigm. He argues that human work, aided by AI, will remove the premium captured by extremely high-paid, experienced professionals (like doctors or top lawyers) as their capabilities become more diffuse. He also discusses what policy choices the government should be making to improve the odds that AI will prove societally beneficial.
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Mon, 25 Mar 2024 - 877 - Lots More on the Big Can Kick in Commercial Real Estate
Last year, we spoke with Rich Hill, head of real estate strategy and research at Cohen & Steers, about where stress was building in the $20 trillion market for commercial real estate. Fast forward to today and the doomsday scenario in commercial real estate just hasn't played out like a lot of people thought it would. Defaults have increased, but they aren't disastrous. And some measures of CRE have even been rallying in recent months. So what's driving this surprising resilience? Hill sees it as a 'prisoner's dilemma' where lenders and borrowers have agreed to amend and extend loans in order to both benefit and buy some time. But how long can that continue? And what does the CRE market need to see in order to mount a durable recovery?
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Fri, 22 Mar 2024 - 876 - Why Home Insurance Markets in California and Florida Imploded
In recent years, we've seen home insurance premiums soar by historic amounts. Not only have prices gone up, but in some instances, we've seen national carriers simply announce that they're abandoning certain states. So, what's behind the mess? Why isn't competition causing markets to come into balance? What is the role of state insurance regulators? On this episode we speak with two guests who help us understand the problem. Amias Gerety is a partner at QED Investors, and a board member for the insurance company Kin. RJ Lehmann is the editor-in-chief for the International Center for Law & Economics. The two of them discuss insurance from both the financial side and the regulatory side. They explain where things have gone wrong and the prospects for market stabilization.
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Thu, 21 Mar 2024 - 875 - How the US Dollar Became an International Weapon of War
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the US took a number of extraordinary steps to cut Moscow out of the international financial system. The country immediately was hit with a slew of sanctions. It was cut off from the SWIFT payment system and it even had its dollar reserves seized. Prior to that, in 2021, the US took the rare step of seizing dollar reserves from Afghanistan's central bank after the Taliban's re-emergence to power. So how does the US control who gets to hold and transact in US dollars? Where did this power come from? What are the limits to the US policing of its own currency? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Bloomberg Senior Reporter Saleha Mohsin, author of the new book, Paper Soldiers: How the Weaponization of the Dollar Changed the World Order. We discuss the buildup of this tremendous financial power and also what it means for the dollar's status as a reserve currency going forward.
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Mon, 18 Mar 2024 - 874 - Why the UAE Is Pumping $35 Billion Into Egypt
The United Arab Emirates recently unveiled a stunning $35 billion investment in Egypt, snapping up development rights in an area on the Mediterranean coast. The announcement has since paved the way for Egypt to float its currency, easing a currency crisis that's been going on for years now and paving the way for an even bigger bailout from the IMF. But why exactly is the UAE pumping roughly 7% of its GDP into Egypt? What does the deal say about politics in the Middle East region? And what does it mean for the flow of petrodollars — the vast amount of money generated by the Gulf's oil income — in the global financial system? On this episode, we speak to Ziad Daoud, chief emerging markets economist at Bloomberg Economics and the co-author of a new Bloomberg News Big Take about the UAE's huge investment.
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Sat, 16 Mar 2024 - 873 - Industrial Policy and the Forgotten Side of Alexander Hamilton
Thanks to the blockbuster musical, Alexander Hamilton has become a modern cultural icon. He's known as an architect of the federal system, building out a strong government with the capacity for both borrowing and spending. But there's another side of his vision that doesn't get as much attention, and that's his belief in the importance of state-directed investment to build out a domestic manufacturing industry. Basically, he was an early advocate for industrial policy. Given that the US is currently in a phase of building out domestic manufacturing capacity in various areas, it's time to go back and look at the history of these efforts in the US. We speak with Christian Parenti, a professor at John Jay College in New York, and the author of Radical Hamilton: Economic Lessons from a Misunderstood Founder, about this other side of Hamilton, and the economic context in which he developed this vision.
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Fri, 15 Mar 2024 - 872 - Why We're Now Living in The Golden Age of Snack Food
Want some Doritos? For years, you might have only been able to get one or two snack chip flavors. But right now on Amazon, you can find numerous varieties, from barbecue to nacho cheese, spicy sweet chili, or Late Night Loaded Taco. And this is really just scratching the surface. There are now dozens of flavors of Blue Diamond almonds, including blueberry, smokehouse, toasted coconut, sriracha, habanero BBQ, and wasabi and soy. So how did this happen? It turns out that some of it is a tech story. Thanks to breakthroughs in automation at both the plant and warehouse level, companies are able to create and ship more varieties than ever before. On this episode, we speak with Ryan Harlan, the director of business development at the E Tech Group, about the rapid changes in the industry over the last decade and how that turned into so many more consumer offerings.
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Thu, 14 Mar 2024 - 871 - Moderna's CFO on How to Allocate Capital in Big Pharma
The pharmaceutical space is characterized by extreme uncertainty. You never know what drugs are going to pan out. The lead time for development is extremely long. Market size is inherently unknowable. And the regulatory and pricing climate is constantly changing. So, how does a company decide where to invest its cash? On this episode, we speak with Moderna's chief financial officer, Jamey Mock, about how he views the problem. He explains the process by which the vaccine maker chooses which bets to make, how changing fortunes within the stock market affect corporate decision-making and the role of the government in accelerating progress and de-risking investment.
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Mon, 11 Mar 2024 - 870 - Lots More on Why Japanese Stocks Are Surging
Japanese stocks are suddenly soaring, with the Nikkei 225 hitting an all-time high this week after decades of languishing. Warren Buffett has been upping his stakes in Japanese companies and activist investors are taking an interest in the market for the first time in decades. And while all these dramatic headlines might seem to be coming out of nowhere, the road to Japan's big corporate comeback has arguably been years in the making. On this episode of Lots More, we speak with Travis Lundy, a Japan markets expert and special situations analyst who publishes on SmartKarma. He walks us through the history of Japan Inc. and how we got to this point. We discuss just how investor-friendly have Japanese companies actually become, what specific examples are we seeing of return-focused strategies, and what seems to be driving the change.
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Fri, 08 Mar 2024 - 869 - Celsius CEO Explains How They Win in Energy Drinks
Go to any deli or 7-Eleven these days and you're sure to see a gigantic, technicolor wall of beverages. There are juices and sodas and CBD-infused beverages and caffeinated energy drinks as far as the eye can see. The wall just keeps getting larger. And whereas in the past you might just see Red Bull and Monster in the energy drink space, now there are numerous competitors, with a wide range of flavors and branding. So what does it take to stand out in this booming market? And how do you get your beverage on that gigantic wall? On this episode, we speak with John Fieldly, the CEO and president of Celsius Holdings, about how his company became the third largest energy drink company in the US. We discuss what it takes to succeed in terms of branding, packaging, distribution and shelf-space.
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Thu, 07 Mar 2024 - 868 - Introducing: The Deal with Alex Rodriguez and Jason Kelly
The Deal, hosted by Alex Rodriguez and Jason Kelly, features intimate conversations with business titans, sports champions and game-changing entrepreneurs who reveal their investment philosophies, pivotal career moves and the ones that got away. From Bloomberg Podcasts and Bloomberg Originals, The Deal is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeart, Bloomberg Carplay, or wherever you get your podcasts. You can also watch The Deal on Bloomberg Television, and Bloomberg Originals on YouTube.
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Tue, 05 Mar 2024 - 867 - Anat Admati on How to Never Bail Out Banks Again
We're coming up to the one-year anniversary of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which sparked a fresh conversation about the role of banks in the wider economy. Last year's banking drama culminated in the Federal Reserve unveiling a new liquidity facility for lenders and the US government made bank customers whole even beyond the $250,000 limit on guaranteed deposit insurance. So what did we learn from the March banking crisis? And what could we be doing differently now? In this episode, we speak with Anat Admati, professor at Stanford Graduate School of Business, about why bank bailouts (in all their different varieties) persist and what can be done about it. Anat became a major advocate of banking reform following the 2008 financial crisis, and has continued to lobby regulators and government officials for fundamental change. She discusses why banks are structurally disincentivized to behave like other types of companies, the impact of new capital requirements including the Basel Endgame proposal, and competition with other types of lenders including private credit.
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Mon, 04 Mar 2024 - 866 - How to Put a Price on a Bird: the Forgotten Science of Economic Ornithology
This episode is for the birds — and one bird in particular. Flaco, an Eurasian eagle-owl, escaped from the Central Park Zoo last year and went on to become a local celebrity, delighting New Yorkers with his feathered adventures across Manhattan. Late last month, however, Flaco died after an apparent collision with a building. Obviously, Flaco's death is a sad event for many reasons, but it got us thinking about the role of birds in the wider world. Not only are they an important part of the natural ecosystem, but they can also contribute to agriculture (or quality of life in the city) by eating bugs, rats and other pests. So can you put an exact dollar amount on the value of a bird and what it does for the world? It turns out that for many decades, some economists were devoted to exactly this question. In this episode, we speak with Robert Francis, the author of the Bird History Substack, about the largely forgotten science of economic ornithology and historic attempts to figure out exactly how much a bird is worth.
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Fri, 01 Mar 2024 - 865 - What Really Goes Into the Fed's Favorite Measure of Inflation?
The Federal Reserve has a goal of getting inflation down to 2%. But of course, there are a lot of different ways of measuring inflation. Many people know about the Consumer Price Index, and the various ways it can be sliced and diced. The Fed, however, focuses on a different index — Personal Consumption Expenditure — which differs from the CPI in a number of ways, both in terms of category weightings and methodological approaches. So why are there different measures of inflation? Why does the Fed prefer PCE? And how is PCE actually assembled? On this episode, we speak with Omair Sharif, founder and president of Inflation Insights, as well as Skanda Amarnath, executive director of Employ America. We explore these two different measures, the approaches for calculating them, and the weird quirks underneath the surface that makes them all so interesting and controversial.
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Thu, 29 Feb 2024 - 864 - How the Rise of 'Pod Shops' Is Reshaping the Way Markets Trade
The hedge fund industry has gone through multiple evolutions. Investing styles go in and out of fashion as market conditions change. Strategies that work become crowded with investors, which can mean they stop working as well. The hottest thing these days are so-called multi-strategy funds or "pod shops" that employ multiple distinct teams, each with a specific mandate, style and edge. In theory, with good risk management and internal capital allocation, this can produce robust results across many cycles. So how do these funds work, how are they making money, and what does the expansive growth of this new style of fund mean for markets? In this episode, we speak with Krishna Kumar, a portfolio manager at Goose Hollow Capital Management, about the rise of multi-strategy hedge funds, why they're so popular, and how the increasing amount of money deployed by these firms is changing the way that markets trade.
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Mon, 26 Feb 2024 - 863 - How Ukraine Delivers the Mail During Wartime
If you order something from Ukraine right now, be it a T-shirt or a vintage Christmas ornament, chances are it will arrive on time and in good shape. Not only is the country's mail service still operating, even as it grapples with an invasion by Russia, but the role of the post office has also changed. The mail has become a lifeline for Ukrainians who rely on it to receive pension payments, medicine, or to run online businesses as domestic jobs get disrupted. So how exactly is the Ukrainian mail system working right now? What operational and logistical changes has it had to make to keep going, and what does the service's future look like? In this episode, we speak with Igor Smelyansky, the CEO of Ukrposhta, about delivering the mail during a time of war.
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Fri, 23 Feb 2024 - 862 - A Longtime Aerospace Analyst Questions Boeing's Future
Troubles at Boeing just keep piling up, along with existential questions about the company's future. Not only is Boeing enormously important to US manufacturing, but it's also a major defense contractor for the US government and a big employer, which means its fortunes are of interest to more than just shareholders. So just how bad are the difficulties facing Boeing at the moment and what is the planemaker planning to do about it? On this episode, we speak to Richard Aboulafia, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory, about Boeing's history and future. He talks about lesser-known developments at the company, including its recent decision to dissolve its firm-wide strategy unit, and the decisions that go into developing new aircraft.
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Thu, 22 Feb 2024 - 861 - This Is What's Hard About Building a US Domestic Battery Industry
The growth of electric vehicles has heightened concerns about China's current dominance in lithium-ion batteries. So as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, the US government is spending money and providing tax credits to companies that are attempting to build up a domestic supply chain. So what are the real challenges to expanding America's battery-making capacity, both in terms of financing and operations? On this episode, we speak with Dr. Chris Burns, the founder and CEO of Novonix, a battery materials company with a focus on synthetic graphite manufacturing. He explains his company's role in the battery supply chain, the economics of domestic manufacturing, and how it employs the government's policy endeavors in its work.
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Mon, 19 Feb 2024 - 860 - Lots More on What Earnings Are Telling Us About Prices Now
Last year, Corbu managing director Samuel Rines came on Odd Lotsto discuss what exactly companies were saying about why they were raising prices. His argument was that in the post-pandemic environment, with all its associated peculiarities and one-off disruptions, businesses were pursuing a strategy of "price over volume" (POV) to boost their profit margins. Since then, the idea of corporate profits contributing to inflation has gone viral, with the Biden administration repeatedly admonishing companies for price-gouging. In this episode ofLots More, we discuss the latest earnings season and what it's telling us about prices right now. Rines argues that the POV strategy is petering out in favor of companies maintaining prices and preserving margins ("Price and Margin") and even beginning to boost their volumes. We also talk about recent job cuts and layoff announcements.
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Fri, 16 Feb 2024 - 859 - The Quiet Revolution in How We Rescue Banks
A little less than a year ago, the US financial system was rocked by its first major banking drama since 2008. While the crisis was eventually contained, and only three lenders ended up collapsing, the experience re-ignited an ongoing conversation about the way we rescue troubled lenders. Not only did the Federal Reserve launch a new liquidity program called the Bank Term Funding Program as part of its support to the banking system in 2023, but regulators are now talking about changing existing facilities, including the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs) and the discount window. For instance, Michael Hsu of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's has proposed that banks be required to tap the discount window and "pre-position" collateral at the facility, just in case they one day need it. In this episode, we speak with Steven Kelly, associate director of research at the Yale University Program on Financial Stability, about the constellation of existing emergency facilities for banks, how they've evolved over time, and the changes that could be made to them now.
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Thu, 15 Feb 2024 - 858 - How a Second Trump Administration Could Upend US-China Relations
Back in 2016, Donald Trump campaigned on a platform that included a much harsher stance toward trade with China, and the US-China Trade War was a big deal while he was in office. But the Biden administration has quietly continued the Trump tariff regime and even enacted more stringent restrictions targeting China's use of technology, including on semiconductors. Now that Trump looks set to get the Republican presidential nomination again, he's suggesting even higher tariffs — of 60% or more — on Chinese goods. What effect would that actually have on the US economy and global trade? Would it lead to higher prices for Americans when the country is still struggling with inflation? Or would it result in a slowing of the economy that actually mutes prices? Would US domestic manufacturing ramp up to fill the gap? Or would we simply import more from other countries? In this episode, we speak with Tom Orlik, chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, and Mackenzie Hawkins, US industrial policy reporter for Bloomberg News, who have published an in-depth analysis of the impact of these potential tariffs.
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Mon, 12 Feb 2024 - 857 - How Surging US Oil Output Is Being Moved and Stored
US oil production has surged to an all-time record of more than 13 million barrels produced per day. But where's all that crude actually going? And how is it being handled and stored? On this episode, we speak with Steven Barsamian, chief operating officer at the Tank Tiger, a clearing house for terminal storage, and co-host of the Tank Talk podcast, about the business of moving and storing oil and its related products. We talk about what storage capacity looks like right now, how it's changed over time, plus last year's diesel shortage in the Northeast. He also describes exactly how crude oil and refined products move from point A to point B, talks about the crud you find at the bottom of storage tanks, and explains why you should definitely not keep oil in the bathtub (or on your desk) to benefit from contango.
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Fri, 09 Feb 2024 - 856 - NY Community Bancorp's Problems in the Rent-Stabilized Market
The last week saw a major plunge in shares of New York Community Bancorp after the company revealed challenges in its lending to multi-family residential developers. So what went wrong at this bank? And what does it say about this particular market? On this episode we speak with Quantierra CEO Ben Carlos Thypin, a New York City landlord and investor, about the bank's large role within NYC's rent-stabilized housing market. Over the last year, Ben has advised funds to short NYCB based on its exposure to this complex corner of real estate. He explains how NYCB's position, combined with market and regulatory changes to the city's housing market, contributed to the strains.
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Thu, 08 Feb 2024 - 855 - How Businesses Decide Exactly Where to Set Up Shop
We know that companies think carefully about where they open stores. They might look at things like how many people pass by the location on a day-to-day basis or how easy it is to access the site by car. But what are the lesser known factors that go into deciding where to open a brick-and-mortar store? And how have these considerations changed over time? In this episode, we talk about the art of retail site selection. We speak with Tom McGee, CEO of the International Council of Shopping Centers, which annually hosts one of the biggest deal-making events connecting retailers and commercial real estate owners. Then, we drill down into a specific type of business: drive-thrus for coffee chains and fast food restaurants. We speak with Chris Hatch, partner at Forza Development.
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Mon, 05 Feb 2024 - 854 - Lots More on Why Farmers Across Europe Are Furious
In France, the Netherlands, Germany, and Poland, we've seen a wave of protests recently from angry farmers. So what's driving the activity? On this episode of Lots More, we speak with Lorcan Roche Kelly, a former cattle farmer in Western Ireland who is now the business editor at the Irish Farmers Journal. He explains how a combination of factors from climate obligations, economic conditions, government regulation, and free trade deals have put the squeeze on many farms, causing this public revolt. He explains the unique conditions facing each country, as well as broader political and economic ramifications.
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Fri, 02 Feb 2024 - 853 - How Global Shippers Are Dealing With a Worsening Red Sea Crisis
Attacks on ships in the Red Sea continue to escalate. What started with narrow strikes by Yemeni-based Houthi militants against Israel-linked vessels has now expanded to ships carrying a wide range of freight, including oil and liquified natural gas. The US military has responded with strikes against Houthi targets, but so far they don't appear to have much of a deterring effect. Meanwhile shipping delays and costs — driven in part by anxious insurers — continue to worsen. To understand the challenge to global trade and how bad it could get, we speak with maritime historian Sal Mercogliano, a professor at Campbell University and the host of theWhat Is Going On With Shipping? show on YouTube. He discusses how shipping companies are making operational decisions in the area, how boat crews are coping, and how various international militaries are responding. He also talks about the broad history of the US Navy and its traditional role in securing international trading routes.
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Thu, 01 Feb 2024 - 852 - Mark Cabana on the Fed, QT and Treasury Funding
It's a busy week for the bond market with a meeting of the Federal Reserve and the release of the US Treasury's quarterly refunding statement. While a lot of people have been focusing on when the Fed will cut benchmark interest rates, there's also an ongoing debate about how fast the central bank will shrink its balance sheet given last year's banking crisis and the recent drama in the repo market. In this episode, we speak with Mark Cabana, longtime rates strategist at Bank of America, about the big questions lurking behind the week's events. We talk about who will buy all the bonds the US is selling, what will happen to bank balance sheets as rates go down, and the impact of liquidity on the broader market.
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Wed, 31 Jan 2024 - 851 - Big Take DC: Economists May Be Using Bad Data to Make Big Decisions
Today's episode is a special edition of Bloomberg's Big Take DC podcast, featuring an interview with our own Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway. They spoke to Big Take host Saleha Mohsin of Bloomberg News, about how the US has managed to avoid a recession — and whether the Federal Reserve’s decisions were based on reliable data. It also features an interview with Claudia Sahm, an ex-Fed economist and contributor to Bloomberg Opinion. To hear more from Big Take DC, subscribe to their show.
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Tue, 30 Jan 2024 - 850 - Lots More with Claudia Sahm
This week on Lots More, we speak with Claudia Sahm, the former Federal Reserve economist and founder of Sahm Consulting, about the recent uptick in the US unemployment rate. We discuss the implications for the Sahm Rule, the early recession indicator she discovered and which has been a hot topic since the most recent Nonfarm Payrolls report. We also talk about data challenges for economists, the prospect of recession, and dealing with online commenters.
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Tue, 30 Jan 2024 - 849 - Why the Short Volatility Trade Is Back and Bigger Than Ever
There are plenty of one-off risks at the moment, but it seems like betting on pretty much nothing happening is more popular than ever. Investors are increasingly reaching for a wide variety of derivatives to bet against volatility. Those derivatives include one- and zero-day options which expire in 24 hours or less, and have become a hot button topic on Wall Street. So what's the impact of this explosion in options trading? Why is it happening at a time when the possibility of major disruptions seems more likely than ever (even if realized volatility remains low)? And what impact could it have on the wider market? In this episode, we speak with Kris Sidial, Co-CIO of Ambrus Group, about the return of the short vol trade.
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Mon, 29 Jan 2024 - 848 - Lots More on China's Moves to Create a Dollar Alternative
For years, people have been talking about the end of US dollar dominance or how some other currency could usurp its role around the world. But when it comes to global finance and trade, the dollar is as dominant as ever. Given the size of China's economy, the renminbi is considered one potential challenger. And in fact, China is making real moves on this front. On this episode of Lots More, we speak with Zongyuan Zoe Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of a recent article on China's de-dollarization efforts. As she sees it, the rise of a new energy and commodity system — one that is breaking away from oil — creates the opportunity for markets that are denominated in something other than dollars. Meanwhile, China, having seen Russia get cut off from the dollar system, has an increased incentive to protect itself from a similar fate. We discuss the prospects of a major change and how China could benefit, as well as the risks. We also discuss the current state of Chinese macro.
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Fri, 26 Jan 2024 - 847 - The Anonymous Meme Account Chronicling Credit Market Craziness
The past few years have been pretty wild for anyone working in credit, the business of selling and trading corporate debt. First you had the pandemic, which changed working patterns across Wall Street. Then you had a surge in deal activity that had everyone working overtime to meet demand. Meanwhile, private credit's been booming and is now competing with banks' cash cow businesses of selling bonds and leveraged loans. And finally, everyone is wondering how long the credit space can withstand higher interest rates, and how frothy the underlying deals actually all. High Yield Harry, an anonymous social media account, has been chronicling it all -- making memes out of junk bond offerings, and cracking jokes about conversations with investment committees. In this episode, he talks about his experience working in both private and public credit, what it's like to run an anonymous FinTwit account, and the outlook for bonuses this year. High Yield Harry's voice is concealed in this episode to preserve anonymity.
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Thu, 25 Jan 2024 - 846 - Brevan Howard's Top Economist Sees Three Huge Macro Turning Points Under Way
Right now, there's a lot of hope and optimism that the US economy is on a path towards a soft landing. Nonetheless, there are aspects of the current landscape that are unsettling. Inflation has come down, but there's significant debate as to why and how sustainable that move is. Geopolitics is another source of concern, given multiple ongoing conflicts. According to Jason Cummins, the chief economist and head of research at macro hedge fund Brevan Howard, we're currently seeing the demise of three different eras: the end of secular stagnation, the end of China's "get rich it all costs" era, and the end of "the end of history," as liberal democracy clashes with other competing frameworks. On this episode of the podcast, we talk about how these ideas are applied practically, in terms of trades, and also why he believes that recession is coming to the US economy in 2024.
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Mon, 22 Jan 2024 - 845 - The Moment That Boeing's Culture Started To Rot
On Jan. 5, the plug door of an Alaska Airlines 737 Max 9 blew out mid-flight, forcing the plane into an emergency landings with a large hole in fuselage. Miraculously, nobody was hurt or killed, but it could have been a disaster. And it was the latest in the persistent string of mechanical and engineering setbacks that have plagued Boeing over the last six years. Of course, the company went into crisis mode in late 2018 and early 2019 when two different 737 Max planes crashed, killing 346 people combined. So what's wrong with Boeing? It's a crucial question, since the company is arguably America's pre-eminent manufacturer and one of the only two dominant global players in commercial jets. On this episode we speak with Bloomberg investigative reporter Peter Robison, the author of Flying Blind: The 737 MAX Tragedy and the Fall of Boeing. We discuss the company's problems, its history and culture, and how it lost its focus on safety and engineering in favor of a focus on pleasing shareholders.
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Fri, 19 Jan 2024 - 844 - US Oil Is Booming and It's Upending Global Markets
In the early 2010s, US shale players were producing oil like crazy, with no concerns about profitability. Then the legs were kicked out from the industry, causing a massive bust and massive oversupply. In 2021 and 2022, it looked like a very different story. Oil prices were surging and it seemed as though US players had found religion, learning how to maintain production discipline and improve profitability. But now we're in a new era that nobody saw coming: US oil production is booming. In in fact, it's at a record high. What's more, industry participants are actually making money at the same time. So how did they do it? And how did the prognosticators get things wrong? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Bloomberg Opinion columnist and commodity specialist Javier Blas. We discuss the state of US supply and what it means for OPEC. We also talk about the rising tension in the Red Sea, as well as his reporting on the rise of electronic electricity trading in the European market.
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Thu, 18 Jan 2024 - 843 - The Massive Economic Impact If China Invades Taiwan
A possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan has become a top-of-mind concern in defense and corporate circles in recent years. But what would such an attack actually look like? And what would be the economic impact to world if it actually happened? On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Jennifer Welch, chief geo-economics analyst at Bloomberg Economics and Gerard DiPippo, senior geo-economics analyst at Bloomberg Economics. Jennifer and Gerard, along with a larger team of Bloomberg economists and journalists, recently undertook a massive exercise to game out the potential impact to the global economy of a war in the Taiwan Strait — which they estimate to be around $10 trillion. That would be significantly larger than the biggest disruptions in recent memory, including the Covid pandemic and the global financial crisis, leaving virtually no part of the world unaffected. We discuss how they go about assessing the odds of each scenario and how they evaluate the possible impacts.
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Mon, 15 Jan 2024 - 842 - Lots More on What's Hot at JPM's Health Conference
For anyone interested in investing in the health-care space, JPMorgan's annual Health Care Conference has become one of the most important events of the year. We were not able to get to San Francisco this year, but one of our favorite Odd Lots guests, James van Geelen of CitriniResearch.com, was in attendance. He called into this week's episode of Lots More to tell us what the leading players in health care and medical technology are buzzing about right now — and he confirms that AI and GLP-1 weight loss drugs are at the top of everyone's mind."
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Fri, 12 Jan 2024 - 841 - Harley Bassman on Why the Big Moves in the Bond Market Are Done
Harley Bassman, a.k.a. the Convexity Maven, is a legend among bond investors. He worked at Merrill Lynch, where he invented the MOVE Index that measures bond market volatility, and then at Pimco. Now, after a dramatic year for US Treasuries that saw investors hit with massive amounts of volatility only for the 10-year yield to basically wind up where it was at the start of 2023, he sees things starting to get a bit more normal. With the Federal Reserve getting closer to its 2% inflation target, the yield curve is going to steepen after years of intense inversion, he says. Now a managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, Bassman also talks about his favorite trades for 2024, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's legacy, and how he chooses his famously esoteric chart colors.
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Thu, 11 Jan 2024 - 840 - Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices
The mood about the US economy feels very different right now than it did a year ago. At the start of 2023, almost everyone seemed to be predicting recession. Right now, there is a high degree of optimism about the prospects of a soft landing. On this special episode of Odd Lots, we speak with Lael Brainard, the director of the White House's National Economic Council. We talk about the state of the recovery, why public frustration towards the economy remains high, and what further can be done by the Biden administration to address the high cost of living.
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Tue, 09 Jan 2024 - 839 - This Is the Impact of Billions Flowing Into Private Credit
Private credit is now so big that it's rivaling more traditional forms of lending and fueling a debate about whether this relatively new asset class poses risks to the economy. And yet, it feels like a new private credit fund is being launched daily. And even banks (the very things private credit is displacing) are getting in on the act and creating their own private credit offerings for investors. In this episode, we speak with Ben Emons, senior portfolio manager at Newedge Wealth, about the macro impact of this new form of lending. He talks about where private credit's alpha actually comes from, how it stacks up against bank lending, and what to watch out for in terms of the risks it might pose to the broader system.
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Mon, 08 Jan 2024 - 838 - Attacks in the Red Sea Are Reconfiguring Global Trade Again
A string of recent attacks by Yemen-based Houthi rebels on commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea to the Suez Canal have forced global shippers to once again shift how they transport goods. It's just the latest in a multi-year string of disruptions to global supply chains. It also comes just as pandemic-era supply chain stress seemed to be in the rearview mirror. So what is the geopolitical and economic impact of this latest disruption? In this episode, we speak with Craig Fuller, founder and CEO of FreightWaves, about the impact of the attacks. We also talk about the broader logistics landscape, including the rise and fall of digital freight brokerages, and the 2023 "bloodbath" for trucking firms.
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Thu, 04 Jan 2024 - 837 - The Top 10 Things We Learned on Odd Lots in 2023
It's no secret that one of the fun things about Odd Lots is that it covers a lot of different topics, from the plumbing of the financial system to crimes in commodities to the ongoing impact of 100-year-old laws like the Jones Act. In this episode, Joe and Tracy collect their top 10 surprising and interesting insights gleaned from Odd Lots episodes this year.
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Mon, 01 Jan 2024 - 836 - Brad Jacobs Plans to Make Billions in the Building Supply Industry
Brad Jacobs has founded multiple multi-billion dollar companies in his career. He turned United Waste into part of a major trash collection conglomerate. United Rentals has been a massive winner in equipment rental for the construction industry. And XPO Logistics (which has spun out GXO and RXO) is a freight behemoth. Now, he's planning on doing it again. His new company, QXO, wants to be a billion-dollar player in the area of building products distribution. On this episode, we speak to Jacobs — who is the author of the new book, How To Make A Few Billion Dollars — about why he chose to go into this industry, his philosophy of building businesses, and how he plans to win in this space.
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Thu, 28 Dec 2023 - 835 - The Odd Lots AMA Episode: Joe and Tracy Answer Your Questions
On this episode, our listeners called in with their questions. They ranged from the personal, like "What happened with Tracy's coal?" to the editorial, such as "What are the big stories we want to be covering more?" Hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway are the ones who get interviewed in this special holiday episode.
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Mon, 25 Dec 2023 - 834 - Why So Many People Got This Year's Economy Wrong
This time last year, almost everyone was predicting a recession would engulf the US economy in 2023. One of those forecasters was was Anna Wong, chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics. In October of last year, her model of the US economy showed a 100% chance of a recession happening in 2023. But, here we are more than 12 months later and US economic data keeps coming in relatively strong. Unemployment remains near multi-decade lows and inflation is pretty close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Yet there are still some confusing signals about the economy's overall direction, including surveys showing that many people are extremely pessimistic in their economic outlook. In this episode, we speak with Anna about how she's thinking about the conflicting signals in the US economy, why recession didn't materialize in 2023 in the way many people thought it would, and what she's looking out for next year.
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Thu, 21 Dec 2023 - 833 - Introducing: Bloomberg News Now
Bloomberg News Now is a comprehensive audio report on today's top stories. Listen for the latest news, whenever you want it, covering global business stories around the world.
on Apple: trib.al/Mx9TCh1
on Spotify: trib.al/T4BG8s4
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Tue, 19 Dec 2023 - 832 - A County in Maryland Came up With a New Way of Building Affordable Homes
When people think of publicly funded housing, they tend not to think about modern-looking apartments with all kinds of amenities. But a county in Maryland is trying to completely reframe how we think about public housing. The Montgomery County Housing Authority has been a pioneer in thinking about what the government can do in terms of accelerating housing production, even when the private sector is pulling back due to higher rates. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Zachary Marks, Senior Vice President of Real Estate at the Housing Opportunities of Commission of Montgomery County along with Paul Williams, the founder and executive director of the Center for Public Enterprise, about what the county is doing, and how the model can be applied elsewhere to create more affordable, abundant housing.
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Mon, 18 Dec 2023 - 831 - Lots More on Shohei Ohtani's $700 Million Contract
This week was a huge one for the soft landing camp. The inflation data came in cool and the Federal Reserve indicated its confidence that it can begin monetary tightening fairly soon. Meanwhile, baseball superstar Shohei Ohtani signed a staggering $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers that comes with a highly unusual deal structure. To break it down, we talked with Bloomberg Opinion columnist Conor Sen about what it all means.
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Fri, 15 Dec 2023 - 830 - How Salad Chain Sweetgreen Figures Out Its Next Product to Sell
Sweetgreen, the popular fast food salad restaurant, recently announced that it was eliminating all use of seed oils, in favor of higher quality oils such as avocado and olive oil. This is more costly, but the company sees it as worthwhile, given its reputation for high-quality ingredients, and growing public interest in oils. So how does a company like Sweetgreen decide what to sell? And how does it compete against the numerous other fast casual chains competing for lunchtime dollars. On this episode we speak with co-founder Nicolas Jammet about the company's strategy, how it deals with labor and commodity costs, and the future of the restaurant business.
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Thu, 14 Dec 2023 - 829 - Drybar Founder Alli Webb on the High Cost of Fast Growth
One of the defining brands of the 2010s was Drybar. The popular chain of blow dry salons helped define the so-called experience economy, leading to numerous competitors and copycats. But of course, to go from a single location to a national chain is difficult in all kinds of ways, both personally and operationally. On this episode, we speak with Drybar founder Alli Webb on the experience, which she talks about in her new book titled 'The Messy Truth: How I Sold My Business for Millions but Almost Lost Myself'. We also discuss the truth about raising money, her new chain of massage studios, how to select the perfect retail location, and how operating a business is different in 2023 than it was 10 years ago.
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Mon, 11 Dec 2023 - 828 - China Made a Chip Breakthrough That Shocked the World
Both the Trump administration and the Biden administration made moves to constrain China's ability to build out an advanced homegrown technology industry. But the country is still investing billions in its chip sector and there are signs that it's really starting to pay off. Huawei recently released the Mate 60 Pro smartphone, with capabilities that shocked the world in terms of its performance. So how is the country making such strides in face of technological trade restrictions? We spoke with Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis and Doug O'Loughlin of Fabricated Knowledge about how much progress China is making, and the policies that are accelerating these gains.
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Thu, 07 Dec 2023 - 827 - Another Part of Commercial Real Estate Is in For a Reckoning
When it comes to commercial real estate, a lot of attention is obviously paid to offices. But it's not the only sector facing strains. Apartment buildings — or multifamily residential — may also be in for trouble. For years, rates were falling and rents were rising, and owning and operating apartments was a moneymaker. Then things went into overdrive with the pandemic, thanks to plunging rates, surging rents, and an explosion in new household formation. But all of that is reversing. Rates have surged. Insurance costs have surged. Operating costs have surged. The household formation boom didn't last. And in some areas of the country — particular in some Sun Belt markets — rents are actually falling. On this episode, we speak with Lee Everett, vice president of research and strategy at Waterton, on how a multi-family deal binge in 2021 will result in a huge hangover.
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Wed, 06 Dec 2023 - 826 - What Dead Malls Tell Us About the Future of Commercial Real Estate
There's been a lot of worry over the future of commercial real estate — especially the outlook for office buildings — in light of higher interest rates and the trend towards work from home. But years ago, Wall Street was worried about a different type of CRE: shopping malls. Back in the 2010s, loans backing malls were souring fast, as customers ordered more online and major anchor tenants (like Sears) shuttered their doors. There were sites such as Deadmalls.com that tracked closures around the country, complete with apocalyptic-looking photos of empty buildings. But of course, while the overall number of shopping malls in the US has dropped, not all of them disappeared. Some have even thrived. So what can the shopping mall experience tell us about the outlook for offices and the broader commercial real estate market? On this episode we speak with Liza Crawford, a long-time CRE veteran and trader of commercial mortgage-backed bonds, who's now co-head of securitized at asset manager TCW.
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Mon, 04 Dec 2023 - 825 - Lots More with Brad Setser
Argentina has always been interesting from an economic and financial markets perspective, to put it mildly. And it's gotten even more interesting following the recent election of Javier Milei as the country's next president. Milei, whose policies could be described as radically libertarian, has floated a bunch of new ideas including getting rid of the central bank and dollarizing Argentina's economy in order to finally put an end to rampant inflation. But how realistic is this path for a nation which has spent decades burning through loans from external creditors? This week on Lots More, we chat with Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, about why Argentina's issues persist and what options it has going forward.
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Fri, 01 Dec 2023 - 824 - Josh Younger Explains How Banks Really Manage Rate Risk
The rate banks pay on savings accounts hit the headlines earlier this year, when an outflow of deposits contributed to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and other lenders. Suddenly, the mechanics of how banks attract deposits — and what they actually do with them — became a hot topic. And even before then, there'd been a lot of discussion over why many banks hadn't passed on the surge in benchmark rates to their customers by raising rates on savings accounts. So what exactly do banks use deposits for? How do those deposits behave? And can that behavior change in different interest rate environments? In this episode we speak with Josh Younger, senior adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and formerly at JPMorgan, about his recent research looking at how banks pass on higher interest rates and what it means for their own exposure to interest rates.
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Thu, 30 Nov 2023 - 823 - A Stunning Lawsuit Could Change How Realtors Get Paid
Last month, a Missouri jury found that real estate brokers colluded to artificially inflate and fix their own commissions, and as a result, ordered the National Association of Realtors to pay $1.8 billion in damages. While the ruling will be appealed, with highly uncertain damages and remedies, the case is shining a light on how participants in the real estate industry get paid, and raising the question of whether homebuyers are paying too much to their brokers. So how do brokers get paid? What are their incentives? And why haven't fees for brokers gone down, even as online platforms that compete with them have proliferated. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Andra Ghent, a finance professor at the University of Utah and a specialist in real estate who explains how the structure works currently, and how the lawsuit could ultimately change the entire business model of buying and selling homes.
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Wed, 29 Nov 2023 - 822 - Goldman's Jan Hatzius Believes the Hard Part Is Over
Going into 2023, the conventional wisdom was that a recession was likely in store. Instead, it didn't happen. What we saw is continued disinflation, even as the economic growth and the labor market have remained robust. Now going into 2024, there's growing optimism that a soft landing can be achieved. Stocks have been rallying, rates have been falling, and there's a widespread view that the Fed is done hiking. So will this come to pass? On this episode, we speak to Jan Hatzius, the top economist at Goldman Sachs, about why so many people got 2023 wrong, and why he believes the soft landing is now within reach.
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Mon, 27 Nov 2023 - 821 - Magic the Gathering's Creator Wants to Create an Even Better Game
Since bursting onto the scene in the mid-1990s, Magic the Gathering has become one of the most popular games of all time, with millions of players collecting cards to battle each other in an imaginary fantasy realm. But Magic's early success came with a problem: the price of the game's most powerful and rare cards surged along with its popularity. Eventually, Magic's creators worried that the game would become too expensive and was at risk of becoming a short-lived fad. So, how do you pop a bubble in collectibles without completely alienating collectors? In this episode, we speak with Richard Garfield, the creator of Magic the Gathering, and Arka Ray, a long-time game developer at Microsoft who's now CEO of Richard's new gaming studio, Popularium. They talk about the surprising parallels between MTG and central banking, what they've learned from Magic, and how they're applying those lessons to Chaos Agents, Popularium's first new gaming launch.
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Thu, 23 Nov 2023 - 820 - Here's What's Going Wrong in the US Offshore Wind Industry
The effort to decarbonize the US electricity grid involves a range of technologies and power sources. Solar is part of the solution, nuclear may also be a component. Battery storage is key. And so is wind — both onshore and offshore. While there are challenges throughout the process, the offshore wind industry in particular has seen a number of setbacks lately, with the Danish company Orsted having recently made headlines for pulling out of a project slated to be built off the coast of New Jersey. Challenges range from surging commodity costs to a scarcity of vessels, the bidding process for deals, and of course, the surge in interest rates over the last two years. On this episode, we speak with Chelsea Jean-Michel, an offshore wind industry analyst at BloombergNEF, to get a clear breakdown of the problems, the degree to which these challenges threaten the larger trajectory of the industry, and the efforts to decarbonize the grid.
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Wed, 22 Nov 2023 - 819 - Why Private Credit's Been Booming Even as Interest Rates Go Up
It's no secret that the market for private credit has boomed in recent years. The surprising thing is that it has continued to do so even as interest rates have surged, defying many people's expectation that this relatively new market would suffer once an era of "loose" money comes to an end. Instead, the market for private credit in the US now rivals the size of the market for publicly-traded, junk-rated corporate bonds. But what exactly is private credit? How does it differ from broadly-syndicated stuff like leverage loans and corporate debt? How susceptible is it to higher rates? What is driving continued interest in this asset class? And what could cause it to wobble? On this episode we speak with Laura Holson of New Mountain Capital — where she manages about $9 billion across various private credit investments — about how the industry works.
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Mon, 20 Nov 2023 - 818 - The Fed's Michael Barr on Real-Time Payments and the Basel Endgame
Michael Barr is a busy man these days. As the Federal Reserve's vice-chair for supervision, he's looking at ways of making the financial system safer through the next-generation of US banking regulation, known as the Basel "endgame" proposal. In July, he also unveiled the central bank's new real-time payment settlement system for banks, called FedNow, after years of development. Of course, all of this is happening at an interesting time for banking. This year saw the collapse of three banks following deposit runs. There have been big losses on bond portfolios as interest rates rise, a cyberattack that briefly unsettled the US Treasury market, and there's still a lot of general uncertainty over the direction of the US economy. In this episode, which was recorded live onstage at The Clearing House annual conference in New York, we speak to Barr about how he's thinking about the payments space, big changes to bank regulation, and the macro outlook.
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Fri, 17 Nov 2023 - 817 - Lina Khan Is Sending a Message to the Private Equity Industry
Since becoming chair of the Federal Trade Commission, Lina Khan has arguably taken a novel approach to antitrust, one that incorporates broader ideas of what might actually constitute anticompetitive behavior. She's challenged huge tech companies like Amazon and Microsoft, and more recently, filed a lawsuit against a private equity firm that's been buying up anesthesiology companies across Texas. The action is noteworthy because it targets a common PE strategy of "rolling-up" multiple businesses and then consolidating them to eke out market efficiencies. So it's no wonder that PE players have called the FTC lawsuit "terrifying," or that Khan has been named "Wall Street's No. 1 enemy." In this episode, we speak with Lina Khan herself about the case, and whether the principles underlying it could be extended outside of healthcare to other industries with PE involvement. We also talk about political pushback, the FTC's research and examination process, and even... chickens.
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Thu, 16 Nov 2023 - 816 - What's Been Happening With the Iranian Stock Market
Back in 2020, we spoke with Maciej Wojtal, a London-based fund manager who specializes in Iranian stocks. This market is one of the most unfamiliar in the world and most investors can't even look up where the country's shares are trading given ongoing sanctions. Of course, there's also constantly changing geopolitical risk, which has only picked up in light of the Israel-Hamas war. In this episode, we find out what's been going on with Iranian stocks in the midst of the recent upheaval and dig deeper into its overall economy after years of isolation from the Western world.
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Mon, 13 Nov 2023 - 815 - The OCC’s Michael Hsu on the Big Risks Facing Banking Businesses Right Now
Earlier this year, we saw the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Bank following a run on deposits and big losses on their portfolios of bonds. Since then, regulators have been discussing changes to existing bank regulation, prompting existential questions about the future of the US lending landscape. But there are other risks lurking in the banking system too — including those created by new technology and changing business models. In this episode, recorded live at Money 20/20 in Las Vegas, we speak with Michael Hsu, the acting comptroller of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. He talks about banking regulation, crypto contagion, the rise of banking-as-a-service (BaaS) and the supply chain of payments.
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Thu, 09 Nov 2023 - 814 - Introducing: Elon, Inc.
At Bloomberg, we’re always talking about the biggest business stories, and no one is bigger than Elon Musk.
In this new chat weekly show, host David Papadopoulos and a panel of guests including Businessweek’s Max Chafkin, Tesla reporter Dana Hull, Big Tech editor Sarah Frier, and more, will break down the most important stories on Musk and his empire. Listen wherever you get your podcasts.
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Wed, 08 Nov 2023 - 813 - The Economics of Building a Childcare Business
Finding good, high quality childcare has been a growing challenge in the US for a long time. The pandemic only made the situation worse, with all kinds of negative knock-on effects for the economy. So what is actually involved in building out a childcare business? What are the costs? How much can it scale? Can it be made more efficient by changing regulations or subsidies? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Matt Bateman, a member of the founding team at Higher Ground Education, which operates a chain of over 120 Montessori schools across several states. We discuss how the business of early education works, what the opportunities are, and the constraints on making childcare more abundant and affordable for everyone.
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Mon, 06 Nov 2023 - 812 - Dimensional Co-CEO Gerard O'Reilly on the Future of Fund Management
Dimensional Fund Advisors is one of the fastest growing providers of mutual funds and ETFs. It was founded in the early 1980s, built upon University of Chicago research on efficient markets, passive investing, and other ideas that have since become extremely widespread. After having built up a huge following among financial advisors for their mutual funds, the company has been racing up the list of ETF providers. On this episode, we speak with Dimensional's co-CEO and chief investment officer Gerard O'Reilly on the firm's history, its approach to investing, and where he sees the fund management industry going.
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Thu, 02 Nov 2023 - 811 - What the Summer of Strikes Means For The Broader Economy
This special episode of Odd Lots was recorded live at the Bloomberg Screentime festival earlier this month in Los Angeles, where the summer strikes by Hollywood writers and actors were a hot topic among panelists and guests. During the event, we spoke with Omair Sharif, the founder and president of Inflation Insights, on how prolonged work stoppages in the film and television industry have impacted the economy, both in California and across the country, and what the recent rise in labor actions means for the US overall.
You can also watch a video stream of this episode at YouTube.com/@Bloomberg_Live
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Mon, 30 Oct 2023 - 810 - The Incredible Rise of the Celsius Energy Drink
For awhile, it was Red Bull that was synonymous with energy drinks. Then Monster Energy came along and turned into one of the best performing stocks of all time. And now there’s another company showing explosive growth along with a surging stock, and that’s Celsius Holdings. But where did Celsius come from? Why do some drink makers manage to make it in such a crowded field? And why is the energy drink space such a seemingly hot category? On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Mark Astrachan, an analyst at Stifel Nicholaus, who specializes in the energy drink space. We discuss the keys to winning and the broader competitive landscape of the industry.
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Thu, 26 Oct 2023 - 809 - What's Really Standing in the Way of a Nuclear Renaissance?
The US is taking a fresh look at nuclear power. After a dearth of construction, and de-commissioning of working nuclear plants, people are talking, yet again, about it as a source of steady, affordable, carbon-free electricity. But of course, nuclear has its drawbacks, particularly on the financial side, as new plants have been plagued by cost over-runs, contributing to utility bankruptcies. So what would need to happen to get the economics working again? On this episode we speak with Mark Nelson, the founder of Radiant Energy Group, to discuss the state of the industry, the state of the technology, and what it would take to bring nuclear back into the mix.
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Mon, 23 Oct 2023 - 808 - Lots More with Gregory Brew
So far, the war between Israel and Hamas has had only a mild impact on world markets. Oil prices are higher than they were prior to the terrorist attack on October 7, but the link between the war and the broader oil market is ambiguous. So what are the risks, if the conflict widens or remains prolonged? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Gregory Brew, analyst at the Eurasia Group, to get a better understanding of what we've seen so far, and the the things we should be watching for.
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Fri, 20 Oct 2023 - 807 - This Is What an 8% Mortgage Means For the Housing Market
Mortgage rates have surged over the last couple of years. But surprisingly to some, actual home prices in the US have been resilient. This has created a historic shock to affordability, with a typical monthly payment on a home purchase soaring. But how long can this go on? Particularly as rates continue to rise, with a 30-year fixed rate mortgage near 8% now, we speak with Morgan Stanley housing strategist, and past Odd Lots guest, Jim Egan, about the impact of this rate environment. He explains why we may be at the limit to how far house prices can rise, and why at this point, the key variable is whether more supply comes onto the market.
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Thu, 19 Oct 2023 - 806 - How An Old Banking Regulation May Have Driven The 1970s Inflation
There remains a lot of anxiety over whether inflation in the US will gather steam all over again. Part of this worry stems from the fact that there were multiple bouts of inflation in the 1970s, which was the last time the US had a serious inflation problem. So to understand whether our current environment bears similar risks to that of the 70s, it's important to understand what actually drove inflation during that period. On this episode, we speak with Itamar Drechsler, a finance professor at Penn's Wharton school. He argues that the banking regulation known as Reg Q impaired the transmission of monetary policy, and resulted in a perverse dynamic via which rate hikes served to impair the supply side of the economy, rather than cool the demand side.
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Mon, 16 Oct 2023 - 804 - NY's Cannabis Rollout Could Destroy a Legal Entrepreneur
When New York legalized recreational cannabis for adults, it didn't just want to fling the gates wide open for anyone to take part. Instead it specifically aimed to help out and give priority to individuals who were previously harmed by the war on drugs. However, more than two years after the law was signed, there are just a handful of legal, licensed shops. Meanwhile, there are thousands of un-licensed shops that proliferate across New York City. At the same time, red tape and legal challenges have hampered the efforts of those going down the legal, regulated path. On this episode, we speak with two entrepreneurs who are trying to go down the regulated path: Coss Marte and Alfredo Angueira of Conbud. They've spent over a million dollars getting ready to launch their dispensary in Manhattan's Lower East Side, but have been unable to actually open it on schedule due to various last minute glitches and legal challenges. We discuss what they've encountered in their efforts, and what it's been costing them to go down the legal path.
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Wed, 11 Oct 2023 - 803 - JPMorgan's Jay Barry on the Big Selloff in Bonds
In the past week, the bond market has experienced a historic selloff. Yields on benchmark 10-year US Treasuries soared towards 4.9% while those on 30-year debt reached the highest since 2007. But the exact cause of these dramatic moves in the most important market in the world aren't entirely clear, with people looking at everything from the Federal Reserve's outlook for interest rates, to the the jump in the price of oil, or booming supply as the deficit expands, as well as more technical things like the term premium. So what's driving the selloff and how do we disaggregate interrelated things like supply and demand? How do you decompose longer-term and short-term factors feeding into the price of US Treasuries? What can stem the big moves? And what are investors saying about their appetite for US debt? We speak with Jay Barry, co-head of US interest rate strategy at JPMorgan Chase, about the big bond market selloff.
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Wed, 11 Oct 2023 - 802 - Jigar Shah on the Pathway to Clean, Cheap, and Abundant Energy
Jigar Shah is the head of the Loan Programs Office at the Department of Energy and thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act, he has hundreds of billions of dollars to lend to companies to accelerate the commercialization of clean energy technologies. The office has already been extremely active over the past year, and there's lots more to come. In this special episode of the podcast that was recorded live at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin, Texas, we discuss his office's strategy and what it will take to achieve the clean, cheap energy system that so many people want. We also discuss specific industries, including nuclear power, and what it will take to build momentum towards more deployment.
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Fri, 06 Oct 2023
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