Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

When today's guest appeared for the first time on this channel a few months ago, a start was born. Those who hadn't yet heard of Danielle Park were impressed by both her command of the macro data and her unflinching courage to call things as she sees them. She highlighted a number of concerns about the trajectory of the economy and markets back then -- and today we check back in with her to see whether things have improved...or gotten worse? Well, Danielle thinks they're "worse". Stress cracks in the economy are now much more clearly visible. And the markets? While they're currently being driven to new highs by "madness" (see: Gamestop), investors hoping for rate cuts may indeed get them. But history shows that stocks fall, often hard, during rate cut regimes. So investors better be careful what they wish for. And they'd better be prepared. Too many are too long and too confident right now. To hear how she's positioning client capital right now, watch this video. Follow Danielle on X/Twitter at @kdaniellepark, on her daily blog at https://jugglingdynamite.com/, or at her website at https://www.venablepark.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #debt #recession #interestrates

Many of the recent housing analysts I've talked with, like in last week's excellent interview with mortgage expert Melody Wright, see tougher times ahead for the real estate market.

So for further context, I thought it would be helpful to get a true "boots on the ground" view from one of America's more successful property investors.

What is he seeing across the thousands of property units in his portfolio?

Is he buying, selling, or holding steady given current market conditions?

And where does he see the housing market headed from here?

For answers, we turn to Ken McElroy, founder and CEO of real estate investment and property management firm MC Companies.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#realestateinvesting #housingmarket #homeprices

It feels like a tale of two economies right now.

If you ask an economist, chances are you'll hear that the US is doing great, growing faster than its G7 peers, with low unemployment and a stock market back near all-time highs.

But if you ask the average man on the street, you'll likely hear a very different story.

One of hardship, where wages aren't keeping up with the massive spike in cost of living, where companies are reducing hours, freezing hiring or actively laying workers off, and households are increasingly forced to turn to expensive credit cards to fund living essentials.

Which of these is more accurate?

And are things likely to get better or worse from here?

For an expert view, we're lucky today to talk with Stephanie Pomboy, economic and market analysis and proprietor of MacroMavens.com

Follow Stephanie at https://macromavens.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#inflation #deflation #recession

The Dow just had its best week of 2024.

And the S&P remains on a tear higher from its mid-April lows.

As a result, looking at short-term conditions, stocks have quickly returned to overbought conditions, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts.

It's likely they'll have a cooling off period over the coming week or two.

Expect a retest of the 50 daily moving average. If that holds, that's a very bullish sign that new all-time highs may not be that far away.

Lance and I walk through the charts, as well as discuss the late-breaking consumer sentiment and jobs data, the wisdom of Freddie Mac's proposal to enter the home equity market, and, of course, his firm's latest trades.

For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#investing #stocks #jobsreport

A few days ago, an article appeared in the Financial Times revealing that "Last month, the government-sponsored mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac filed a proposal with its regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, to enter into the secondary mortgage market, otherwise known as home equity loans"

The article's author, Meredith Whitney, claims that if approved, this "could begin to unleash almost $1tn into consumers’ wallets. By the autumn, it could be on its way to $2tn."

That would be a tremendous stimulus to the economy.

But is it a good idea?

Putting aside for a moment concerns of its potential inflationary impact, the Global Financial Crisis was a credit crisis triggered by bad housing loans.

Would allowing the government-sponsored entities like Freddie Mac to unleash a flood of new loans risk repeating the sins of the past?

For answers, we're fortunate to turn to mortgage lending expert & housing analyst Melody Wright.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#housingmarket #homeequity #mortgageloans

Today's guest expert just released a warning that the official jobs data reported by the government are "overstated by historical proportions"

And when the downward revisions get released, it will shock both the Federal Reserve and the financial markets.

For the details on this, we turn to the man who wrote the report, highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research.

Visit David at https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#jobs #recession2024 #interestrates

Stubbornly sticky inflation looks to be turning the Federal Reserve's campaign of Higher For Longer interest rates into "Higher For Even Longer"

Today's guest warns that "Markets are unprepared for price growth that is becoming entrenched".

Nor do they appear prepared for bond yields to remain at today's rates, let alone march higher from here.

Remember, it was only a few short months ago that the markets were pricing in 7 rate cuts in 2024. Now it's appearing they'll be lucky to get only 2 or 3.

And who knows?

They may not get any.

Does this mean financial asset prices need to adjust downward in some material way?

And will the economy slow faster than expected from here?

Perhaps the recent weakness we've saw in stocks in April was Wall Street finally awakening to these potential ramifications.

For an analyst's perspective on the matter, we turn to Simon White, Macro Strategist at Bloomberg and co-founder of the investment-advisory firm Variant Perception.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#volatility #bullmarket #interestrates

Since today's guest was last on this program back in December, the world has continued to fracture geopolitically.

Where is that trend taking us?

And what will the impact be on global prosperity?

The majority of folks who watch this Thoughtful Money channel are primarily from the US, Canada, Europe and Australia.

So to provide a perspective from a non-Western point of view, I'm pleased to welcome Michael Every back onto the program.

Michael is Global Strategist at Rabobank, and joins us from Thailand.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#geopolitics #trade #investing

Stock prices are compressing in a wedge pattern suggesting the market is going to make a breakout soon.

But in which direction?

We'll soon know for sure, but portfolio manager Lance Roberts' models triggered a buy signal today. So he thinks the odds favor the bulls.

Why discuss why in today's Market Recap, as well react to this week's Fed guidance, the new payroll data, the impact massive buyback programs from companies like Google and Apple are having on the markets, and the most common ways regular investors sabotage their success.

Lance also shares the latest trades his firm made this week.

For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#federalreserve #inflation #jobs

Yesterday, May 1 2024, the Federal Reserve issued its latest policy statement, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The Fed held its policy interest rate steady at 5.25%, as expected.

Somewhat surprising to Wall Street was the Fed's announcement that it will reduce the scope of its Quantitative Tightening program starting in June. US Treasury roll-off will be reduced to $25 billion per month, down from the current $60 billion per month.

Above and beyond that, Jerome Powell admitted that inflation is proving more stubborn to tame than the Fed hoped at the start of the year, and that getting it down sustainably to the Fed's 2% target will "take longer than previously expected". This essentially is admitting that interest rates will stay hike for EVEN longer.

In this video, Fed-watcher Axel Merk of Merk Investments joins Thoughtful Money host Adam Taggart to provide an immediate reaction to the Fed's guidance and take live Q&A from the viewing audience.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#interestrates #inflation #federalreserve

If we care about the future of the economy, then we have to pay close attention to the policies that shape it. We are currently living in an age of extreme -- and in certain cases, unprecedented -- levels of monetary and fiscal policy. Is that wise? Or should market forces be allowed to play out more & free us from the constant intervention of the central planners? To explore this, we welcome economist Dr Arthur Laffer. Dr Laffer was the first to hold the title of Chief Economist at the Office of Management and Budget in the early 1970s. He then later served as a member of President Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board. He's perhaps best known for developing the Laffer curve, a model for determining the optimal balance between tax revenues and economic growth. Dr Laffer sees the major nations of the world declining into a sclerotic senescence. BUT...he sees a way for us to reverse that plight, on a timeline that could be much faster than many imagine is possible. The key question is: Will we have the conviction, courage and commitment to embrace the necessary reforms? For an important discussion with a respected economic advisor to nearly every President since Nixon, watch this video with Dr Art Laffer.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #taxes #internationaltrade #economics

In order to succeed, it's critical to understand the rules you're playing by.

And the rules for investing may have recently changed.

There's a good argument to be made that we are now in an era of fiscal dominance.

Today's guest, one of the smarter you'll get the chance to hear from, is certainly making that case.

So what exactly is fiscal dominance?

Why is it important for investors to understand?

And which assets do well, and which do poorly, in such an era?

To find out, we have the good fortune of speaking today with Lyn Alden, investment strategist & author of the recent book "Broken Money: Why Our Financial System is Failing Us and How We Can Make it Better"

And if time allows, we'll also ask for her outlook on the dollar, gold and Bitcoin.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#fiscaldominance #inflation #recession

Is the market downdraft that sent stocks 5% lower from their recent all-time highs over?

It's looking like it could be.

But the market is at a "critical juncture" observes portfolio manager Lance Roberts.

The S&P is getting quite close to its 50 and 20 Daily Moving Averages. If it rises above them, then we're likely back off to the races and new all-time highs could be in the future.

But if it fails to do so, then a fall back to the 100 Daily Moving Average is more likely in store.

Lance and I walk through the charts, as well discuss the latest slowdown in GDP growth, the latest hot inflation surprise data, as well as what's happening with bond yields.

This episode is very important to watch if you're 40 years or younger and/or just starting out on your wealth-building journey. Lance shares his simple formula for how to get out of financial survival mode and amass sufficient capital to take control of your financial destiny.

For that, plus everything that mattered to the markets, watch this week's Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#investing #inflation #interestrates

With the market now expecting less than 2 rate cuts this year -- perhaps none at all until next year according to Bank of America -- what does that mean for the economy?

Can it handle "higher for even longer" interest rates without slowing markedly?

Or, even worse, something systemic breaking?

And what impact will these higher rates likely have on stock, bonds and other asset prices?

To find out, we're fortunate today to talk with money manager Michael Pento. president of Pento Portfolio Strategies.

Michael is "not happy". He's very concerned that the crown jewel of our capitalist society, the middle class, is getting "destroyed". He sees nothing good coming from that.

And looking ahead, he sees a disinflationary recession happening in the second half of 2024, to be followed in early to mid-2025 by an era of stagflation more extreme than we've ever experienced.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#inflation #stagflation #recession

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com Stocks have sold off sharply since hitting all time highs just 3 weeks ago. Bond prices are falling, too. What's going on here? Is this just a needed pullback to remove excessive froth before the market resumes rising to all-time highs? Or is this a more significant reversal? For a professional's perspective, we turn to John Llodra and Mike Preston, the lead partners at advisory firm New Harbor Financial. Many of you already know that New Harbor is one of the financial advisory firms endorsed by Thoughtful Money. To schedule a free consultation with them, fill out the short form at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #goldprice #marketcorrection

On the famous fear/greed index, after spending most of the past year and half in "greed", we've suddenly switched to "fear" over a very short time frame.

The S&P has broken below both its 20 and 50 Daily Moving Averages.

Inflation printed hotter than expected, making Wall Street start to doubt the Federal Reserve's ability to deliver expected rate cuts.

And geopolitical tensions have puckered tighter following the escalation of hostilities between Iran and Israel.

Is the exuberant sentiment that drove the past year's bull market now gone?

Or it is just taking a breather before continuing to climb what has suddenly become a much steeper Wall Of Worry?

For answers, we're fortunate to speak today with market veteran Kevin Muir, founder and editor of The Macro Tourist, the highly-acclaimed newsletter that currently ranks as the #12th largest financial Substack in the world. 

Follow Kevin at https://themacrotourist.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#marketcorrection #volatility #investing

Well, the relentless bull rally that began in November is over.

Stocks fell hard this week, with the S&P breaking below 5000 on Friday. It's now down nearly 300 points from its all-time hit, which it hit just 3 weeks ago.

How low is this pullback likely to go?

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss just that in this week's Market Recap, as well as sticky inflation, rising bond yields, lackluster retail sales and the dangerous warning the NFIB data is sending about jobs.

And as usual, Lance shares the trades his firm made this week.

For everything that mattered to the market, watch this week's Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#marketcorrection #bondyields #bearmarket

The headline economic data gives a comforting sense the economy is strong.

The media headlines tell us the consumer is "resilient"

But if you ask most Americans, they'll tell you they're struggling.

Last year, a Forbes Advisor survey revealed that nearly 70% of respondents either identified as living paycheck to paycheck (40%) or—even more concerning—reported that their income doesn’t even cover their standard expenses (29%).

So why is there such a big disconnect here?

For context, we're fortunate to talk today with Adam Kobeissi, publisher of the popular capital markets report, The Kobeissi Letter.

While Adam remains guardedly bullish in the near term, he thinks market risks are mounting and that investors need to prepare for "much larger swings to the downside" as the year progresses.

Follow Adam at https://www.thekobeissiletter.com/

Or on Twitter at @kobeissiletter

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#bullmarket #marketcorrection #jobs

This is a live Special Report with geopolitical expert Ryan Bohl, MidEast analyst for the RANE Network.

Given the serious nature of and confusion around the escalation of hostilities between Iran & Israel, I've brought Ryan on the program to ask him: - The drivers of tension between Iran and Israel - What led to this weekend's attack? - What do you expect to happen from here? - What impact is this conflict having on the global economy & financial markets? - If things escalate, how concerned should those living in the West be? - What will it take to de-escalate the situation? Ryan takes live audience Q&A near the end of the interview #israel #iran #worldwar3

The price of gold has experienced a breakout over the past month and a half.

What does that mean?

Is that a sign that investors are worried about higher inflation to come?

Or that capital is fleeing to safety in advance of approaching economic trouble?

Or is this price surge due to speculative zeal?

For answers, we turn to capital manager Axel Merk and his team at Merk Investments, who manage several funds that invest in the precious metal sector.

We'll also ask them their thoughts on the future prospects of the gold and silver mining companies.

Will their performance catch up to, and perhaps outpace that of the metals soon?

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#goldprice #silverprice #miningstocks

When I last interviewed today's guest back in December, he said that the forecast of his proprietary model made him about "as bullish as he'd ever been on stocks" heading into 2024.

And to give credit where credit is due, his positioning was spot on the money.

The S&P 500 & NASDAQ both increased by 11% in Q1

So what is his model telling us to expect in Q2?

To find out we'll ask the man himself.

Today we have the good fortune of speaking with Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro.

Darius still maintains a bullish stance, but now that we've moved out of the "Goldilocks" regime and into "Reflation", the intensity of that stance is only moderate at this point.

Follow Darius at https://42macro.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#reflation #inflation #bullmarket

The unending string of up weeks we saw in stocks in Q1 has ended here in April.

The market had a volatile week, with the S&P ending roughly 100 points lower and bond yields continuing to rise, with the UST 10-year now over 4.5%

Notably, the S&P has broken below the bullish trendline it has been trading in since the bull rally began back in November.The breakdown is unconfirmed as of yet.

But if stocks close a little lower from here without regaining their 20 Daily Moving Average, then it will be...so next week will bear close watching.

Portfolio Manager Lance Roberts and I discuss this in depth - as well as Jesse Felder's "three 50s" warnings, inflation, bonds, the price action in gold & oil, as well as his firm's recent trades.

For everything that mattered to market, watch this week's Market Recap featuring Lance Roberts.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#stockmarketcorrection #bondyields #goldprice

In Q1, investors could do no wrong.

Making money was easy as almost every asset class rose to new highs as markets anticipated coming interest rate cuts from.

But here at the start of Q2, things are starting to feel a lot less safe. Suddenly stock prices are plateauing, and services inflation plus a swiftly rising oil price are quickly dashing hopes of rate cuts anytime soon.

Will the markets offer a bumpier ride from here?

To find out, we have the good fortune to talk today with David Brady, money manager, former FX trader, and author of one of the most popular investing publications on Substack, the FIPEST Report.

David has a pretty grim outlook for the stock market. He expects stocks to fall 20-30% soon, recover before the election as the Federal Reserve returns to QE, and then, once the election is over, "drop precipitously"

Follow David at https://fipestreport.substack.com/

Or on Twitter at @GlobalProTrader

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#stockcrash #gold #silver

Today's guest expert is concerned that too many investors, giddy with the ferocious market gains since November, are increasingly willing to pay prices for assets that only make sense if the pace of gains continues into the far future.

This is called "extrapolating the unsustainable" and is a hallmark of late stage price melt-ups.

Historically, this behavior has not ended well for those engaging in it.

Will it prove different this time?

To find out, as well as hear his outlook for markets, we're fortunate to speak today with Jesse Felder, founder & Editor of the respected market research firm: The Felder Report.

Jesse warns that while the market is currently priced for a Goldilocks Econonmy, stagflation is much more likely.

Follow Jesse at https://thefelderreport.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#stagflation #recession #marketcorrection

There's a lot of uncertainty in the world right now -- geopolitical, economic, social, and environmental.

At times like this when the path forward is unclear and the stakes are high, it's wise to tap the counsel of those with a strong command of the lessons of history, and the practical experience of a lifetime in the market trenches.

There are few who fit that description better than Dr Marc Faber, Editor and Publisher of ‘’The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report’Colorful, brash & brilliant — Marc understands the global economy through a historical lens practically unmatched in the industry.

And he’s a declarative straight-shooter who doesn’t mince words.

Follow Marc at https://www.gloomboomdoom.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKETS? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#wealthgap #inflation #goldprice

Are cracks starting to appear in the bull market rally?

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks so.

His technical dashboard is now showing sell signals as volatility is increasing and the S&P has broken beneath its 20 Daily Moving Average.Next week should be telling.

If the S&P rises and closes back above its 20 DMA, that should mean the bull trend is intact.

But if not, and the 20 DMA becomes resistance instead of support, that's a strong sign the rally is cooked for now.

We discuss this, as well as the latest hard-to-believe blowout jobs report, the recent jawboning by Fed officials, bond yields, banking system risk, gold and oil.

For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap featuring Lance Roberts.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#bullmarket #volatility #jobsreport

The Federal Reserve is one of, if not the most, significant institutions in the world given the global impact of its policy decisions. It influences the price of nearly everything, as well as the availability of jobs, the stability of our banking system, and the purchasing power of our money. When the Fed Chair speaks, the entire world stops to listen. But the average person has a poor understanding of how this colossally important entity operates or even why it exists. And after a series of asset price bubbles -- which some argue we're in another one now -- a chorus skeptical of the Fed's actions has emerged. So today we're doing our best to shine as bright a light as possible on the Fed: how & why it operates, the good & as well as the shortcomings of its actions to date, what direction its policies are likely to take from here, and how all of this impacts the households of regular people like you and me We have the great privilege of speaking today with Thomas Hoenig, former CEO of the Kansas City Fed, former voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, a former director of the FDIC, and now a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Mercatus Center. Follow Dr. Hoenig at https://substack.com/profile/131926993-thomas-hoenig

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #federalreserve #inflation #money

Stocks have delivered a great ride over the past year and a half. That has attracted retail investors back into the markets with a vengeance. Household equity ownership is currently near an all-time high. Does this bull market still have plenty of room left to run? And if so, what are the skeptics misunderstanding? For insight, we have the good fortune to turn to Dr. Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research. While not dismissive of the many potential risks to the market's momentum, Ed maintains price targets on the S&P 500 index of 5,400 for 2024 (we're nearly there, so he may need to raise it soon), 6,000 for 2025 and 6,500 for 2026. Follow Ed at https://yardeni.com/ or https://yardeniquicktakes.com/

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bullmarket #ai #cloudcomputing

When I interviewed today's guest expert back in August of 2021, when inflation was 5%, he made the bold prediction that the CPI would eventually hit 9%, a prediction that seemed unthinkable at the time -- but it indeed proved true less than a year later. He then called for inflation to moderate substantially, which it also then did. Where does he see inflation headed from here? To find out, as well as hear his latest outlook on the economy, recession risk, social stability and the markets, we welcome back Steve Hanke professor, of applied economics at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#recession #inflation #moneysupply

Nearly every asset class saw gains in Q1 -- stocks, the dollar, gold, Bitcoin and real estate. Will the rally keep powering higher through the remainder of 2024? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks, while anything is possible, stocks are increasingly at risk of a pull-back, especially as the Presidential election approaches. Markets hate uncertainty, and with a close election expected, not just for the Presidency but for the chambers of Congress as well, it's likely investors will start selling and moving towards the sidelines as summer approaches. Lance and I discuss that, as well as concerning new jobs data, the looming retirement crisis, the worsening wealth divide, plus several other positive recent developments in this week's recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #marketcorrection #bullmarket #jobs2024

Animal spirits have certainly been running wild in the stock market of late. The S&P is up over 1,000 points (roughly 25%) in the past 4.5 months. Is this a new era of easy gains as giddy bulls are proclaiming? One investors should jump in and make the most of? Or is this the latest incarnation of irrational exuberance? And is caution warranted instead? For insight, we're fortunate to speak today with Jonathan Treussard, former partner and head of product at Research Associates, and now founder of Treussard Capital Management. Jonathan, who authored academic research on financial bubbles at UCLA, indeed concludes we are in the midst of another such bubble now. Follow Jonathan at https://www.treussard.com

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bubbles #nvidia #nvda

Recent inflation reports show that it's proving "sticky", stubbornly refusing to recede down to the target rates that central banks are shooting for.

But rather than simply staying sticky, could it actually start surging again?

Today's guest expert thinks it could due to growing global economic imbalances.

If that happens, what will the implications be?

And can investors to proactively today to prepare?

For answers, we turn to macro and commodities expert Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital.

Follow Tavi at https://www.crescat.net/

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#inflation #interestrates #commodities

The global economy is awash in too much debt, which continues to pile up at an exponential rate. History is clear how such eras end. The purchasing power of currency gets destroyed. To understand why the barbarous relic has risen to an all-time high and may have an even better year lying ahead, we have the good fortune to speak today with macro & precious metals expert Egon von Greyerz, Founder of Matterhorn Asset Management & GoldSwitzerland -- now known as vonGreyerz.gold

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#gold #debt #stocks

As Q1 concludes, corporations are starting to enter the blackout period preventing them from buying back their stock until they've released their quarterly earnings (weeks away for most companies) That temporarily removes THE most important buying support for shares. Combine that with other expected net liquidity reductions in Q2, such as the end of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) and the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) running dry, and think could get quite bumpy for financial assets. After all, Lance has been expecting a ~10% correction for a while now, and the markets have only moved higher -- increasing the odds of a pullback. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch today's Weekly Market Recap featuring Lance Roberts.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #buybackofshares #buybacks #marketcorrection

Portfolio manager & Fed-watcher Axel Merk shares his immediate take-aways from this week's FOMC release and press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He'll also take live Q&A from viewers

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#federalreserve #interestrates #inflation

Well, the first-ever Thoughtful Money conference was held online this past weekend and I’m delighted to say the event was a real success. That was due primarily to the amazing line-up of speakers who presented and took live audience Q&A throughout the insight-packed 9 hour day. Lacy Hunt delivered the keynote, followed by Stephanie Pomboy, Michael Pento, Ted Oakley, Michael Lebowitz, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Tom McClellan, Brent Johnson, Melody Wright, Rick Rule, Matt Piepenburg and Mark Moss. For those of you who didn’t attend, I thought you’d enjoy hearing some of the conference highlights.

BUY THE REPLAY of the full Thoughtful Money conference here at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference #recession #hardlanding #marketcorrection

_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Solicitor. We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such. We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor in good standing with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance. IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.

For a long time now, passive capital inflows have powered equities higher, especially the Magnificent 7, as a tremendous percent of every new dollar that flows into the market goes into these 7 stocks. But some of these once-bulletproof companies are now starting to struggle. And those passive capital inflows? There are emerging signs they may be stalling, perhaps even starting to reverse. If true, could that take asset prices down just as powerfully as it drove them higher? To help us find out, as investors have a lot riding on the answer, we have the good fortune of speaking with investor and analyst Bill Fleckenstein of Fleckenstein Capital.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bonds #marketcrash #shortingstocks

Stocks pretty much ended the week where they began. Is the raging rally that has propelled stocks higher so far this year finally running out of gas? Quite possibly thinks portfolio manager Lance Roberts. Valuations remain at extremely stretched extremes for many assets including story stocks like Nvida, speculative assets like Bitcoin...and even gold. As he has been predicting for several weeks now, Lance cautions that a 5-10% correct in the markets is highly likely at this point. It's time to hedge your positions and/or take gains. We address all this, as well as inflation, jobs, recession odds, the plight of the middle class, the proposed legislation to limit TikTok, and the requirements & benefits of our constitutional republic form of governance. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch today's Weekly Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #interestrates #higherforlonger

To better understand the current economic environment we find ourselves in, it helps to better understand how we ended up here. And few have as detailed an understanding as today's guest, who has been a true insider in both Washington DC and Wall Street for his extremely long & accomplished career. We're fortunate today to speak with former Congressman, economic policymaker & financier, David Stockman. He warns that after decades of profligacy, over increasing our debt 100x since 1970 while only growing our GDP by 25x, we've arrived at a fiscal & monetary "dead end" What does he see ahead? Higher inflation. Recession. Hard times for Main Street. A 50%+ correction for Wall Street. And he expect the pain to last for years because he thinks the Federal Reserve can't ride to the rescue in the same way it has in the past. Follow David at https://www.davidstockmanscontracorner.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #marketcrash #inflation #recession

Since the October lows, stocks have roared back to record highs, and bonds have risen solidly as US 10yr Treasury yields have dropped from 5% to near 4% Will the bull run continue through the rest of 2024? It is an election year in America after all. Or, have the animal spirits carried assets to unsustainable prices, putting us in danger of a painful sell-off? To find out, we have to good fortune to hear from bond expert Alf Peccatiello of The Macro Compass. He predicts that the higher cost of debt brought on by higher interest rates will indeed start causing many over-leveraged companies to start buckling as $2+ trillion in US corporate debt matures between now and end of 2025. Follow Alf at https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ And if an accredited investor interested in learning more about his new macro fund, email Alf at fund@themacrocompass.com

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bonds #unemployment #recession

When today's guest was on this channel back in December, he explained that rising net liquidity was responsible for the surprisingly strong performance seen in both the economy & the financial markets in 2023.

And he predicted that these net liquidity inflows would continue, leading to even higher asset prices ahead.

Well, here in the final month of Q1 2024, things so far have played out according to his script.So where does he liquidity heading for the rest of the year?

To find out, here's another very important conversation today with Michael Howell, founder & CEO of Crossborder Capital.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#liquidity #stocks #recession

Well, another week, another all-time high in stocks.

Valuations are now stretched to extremes only seen near a bubble top, and volatility is low...too low.

The odds of a pull-back, perhaps a larger correction, are concerningly high enough to make this now a time to hedge your positions, advises portfolio manager Lance Roberts.

In this video, he & I discuss how much more room to run high fliers like Nvidia have, what's happening with bonds, the growing risk of slowing liquidity, the latest (and dumbfounding payrolls jobs data, as well as what trades (if any) Lance's firm made over the past week.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Weekly Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#stockmarket #nvdia #jobs

The media is full of reports that the economy is in fine shape due to a "strong" and "resilient" consumer who has held up much better than expected during the recent years of high inflation and high interest rates. But has the average consumer truly shrugged all that off? Or are they in worse shape than we're being told? For a deep dive into the true state of the US consumer, we'll hear today from Neely Tamminga, researcher, professor and co-founder of the retail consulting firm DISTILL.

Follow Neely on X at @neelytamminga or at her website at https://distilladvisory.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#consumer #retirees #millennials

As the stock market trades at all-time highs, is this a great time to continue to ride the bull rally? Or has the getting been too good for too long? Is it instead now a good time to take gains and wait for a correction? Today we'll hear answers to these questions from Chance Finucane, Chief Investment Office at Oxbow Advisors.  Oxbow Advisors is a financial advisory firm founded by Ted Oakley that specializes in the needs of high net worth clients. As Ted's CIO, Chance will share with us what kind of market outlook the firm sees ahead for the rest of the year and how it is positioning its client's assets for it. Among other risks, Oxbow is watching the liquidity situation very closely. Globally, fiscal stimulus grew substantially in 2023. But in 2024, its growth is predicted to be much more anemic -- even negative -- across the world. That could be a game changer, triggering both economic slowdown and a potential market correction. Follow Oxbow at https://oxbowadvisors.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #stimulus #investing

The economy is chugging along at more robust GDP growth than many expected. Inflation has moderated and unemployment remains low. Many, including Wall Street for certain, have bought into the soft landing -- or no landing at all -- narrative. We're in a Golidilocks era they tell us. Bears should stop worrying, admit they've been wrong, and join the party. So, is that truly the case? For answer,s we turn to market analyst Gordon Long of MATASII: Macro Analytics & Technical Analysis Strategic Investment Insight

Follow Gordan at https://matasii.com

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #hardlanding #investing

Investing great Ray Dalio said this week: "The stock market doesn't look very bubbly". But Bank of America just released a new report titled: "The S&P 500 is egregiously expensive" Who's closer to right? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts leans more towards BofA's assessment, though that doesn't mean the current mania in stocks can't run higher. But given that the S&P has risen for 15 out of the past 17 weeks -- a feat not seen since the 1980s -- Lance feels that the current rally is "extremely long in the tooth" and the odds of a correction are elevated. We also talk about inflation, jobs, liquidity flows and the current level of risk commercial real estate poses to the banking system. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Weekly Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #stockmarket #raydalio #stockmarketcorrection

Inflation has been called the invisible tax. Economist John Maynard Keynes wrote that, through it, "Governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens" in a process that "engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." Which is why it's very important to know what's happening with inflation and where it's headed. But should we rely on government's reported numbers, as distorted as they are by fudge-factors like hedonics and substitution, and possible manipulation for political optics? No, says today's guest, Oliver Rust, co-founder of Truflation, a new blockchain-based real-time inflation calculation service that uses over 10 million data points to yield a more accurate measurement that represents what households actually experience. We'll find out what he thinks the true inflation rate is and where he sees it heading next. Follow Truflation at https://truflation.com/ or on social media at @truflation Email Oliver at oliver@truflation.com

WANT TO PROTECT THE PURCHASING POWER OF YOUR WEALTH? Schedule your free portfolio review with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #costofliving #prices

Back in 1996, Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan famously said: "How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions?" It was a prophetic question, as the stock market soon after became caught up in the mania of the DotCom bubble, reaching unprecedented levels of overvaluation followed by a precipitous price correction. The Nasdaq didn't return to its 2000 highs until 15 years later. Many are feeling like it's deja vu all over again with the latest run-up in the small number of stocks, colloquially known as the Magnificent 7, driving the market indices to new record highs. Are we in a new era of irrational exuberance, this time driven by the promise of artificial intelligence? And if so, what's the danger this time of another prolonged contraction ensuing? Contact David at https://evergreengavekal.com/meet-david-hay/ Or subscribe to his Substack at https://haymaker.substack.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #stockmarket #marketcrash #marketcorrection

Well, the average home price in America remains just about as unaffordable as it's ever been. In fact, a recent report from real estate data provider ATTOM examined the median home prices last year for roughly 575 U.S. counties and found that home prices in 99% of those areas are beyond the reach of the average income earner. And to add insult to injury, 30-year fixed mortgage rates just rose back above 7%. So, what lies ahead for home prices in 2024? To find out, we welcome housing analyst Nick Gerli, founder of reventure Consulting and creator of the new reventure app back to the program.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #homeprices #housingmarket #housing

The S&P is at yet another record high in a week that saw the second-biggest 1-day gain in market cap in history after Nvidia (NVDA) delighted investors with blowout revenue& earnings growth. The bulls are stampeding hard now and FOMO-driven momentum chasers are back. Stocks remain solidly in short-term overbought territory. Valuation metrics of many companies like price-to-earnings & price-to-sales are being stretched, taffy-like, to extremes rarely seen. Are markets back to 'irrational exuberance'? Or is this just a great time for investors to make gains? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts shares how his firm is navigating the feeding frenzy, as well as what trades he's made over the past week.

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #nvda #nvidia #bullmarket

One of the most frequent requests from Thoughtful Money viewers is for a discussion focused on investing for income. Well, that's what we're delivering here. Steven Bavaria, author of the book 'The Income Factory: An Investor’s Guide to Consistent Lifetime Returns' joins us to share his framework for constructing a lower-risk portfolio of income-generating assets that include: high dividend stocks, senior bonds, high yield bonds, covered call funds, Master Limited Partnerships, closed-end funds, and more. Follow Steven at https://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bavaria Or get his book here: https://www.amazon.com/Income-Factory-Investors-Consistent-Lifetime/dp/1260458539

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #incomeinvesting #dividendstocks #fixedincome

After decades of moving towards increased globalization, the aftermath of the supply-chain vulnerabilities revealed by the COVID pandemic, as well as the geopolitical fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, are pushing the world order into a more fragmented state. If trade globalization has indeed peaked, what does that mean for the future of the major world economies and for asset prices? To address, we're fortunate to be joined by Bob Elliott, former Investment Committee member at Bridgewater Associates and now CEO and CIO of the investment company Unlimited.

Follow Bob on X/Twitter at @BobEUnlimited On YouTube at youtube.com/ @BobEUnlimited  And on LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/in/ttoillebob/

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #globalization #investing

Inflation for January rose higher than expected. Is this a one-off blip? Or is it a sign that the remaining inflation in the system is "sticky", and going to prove harder for the Federal Reserve to get under control? Some analysis have been warning that we may be falling into the same trap as we did in the 1970s, which saw a series of rollercoaster surges and drops in inflation until Fed Chair Paul Volker was forced to rise interest rates up to a crippling 20% to get prices under control. Is that kind of pain possibly in our future? To find out, we're fortunate to hear today from Michael Lebowitz, portfolio manager at Real Investment Advice. He works closely with Lance Roberts, who regular viewers see on this channel with me every Saturday.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #debt #inflation #bonds

The S&P 500 is now solidly above 5,000. Stocks have shrugged off "bad" data like higher inflation numbers & disappointing retail sales -- nothing at the moment seems able to dampen Wall Street's euphoria. And little surprise, retail investors are now piling into the markets, eager not to miss the party.

These are classic late-stage signs of a topping market.

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts calculates that a pullback is now highly likely, though he warns he would not be surprised if the S&P ran up another 100 points from here before it arrives. Animal spirits (i.e., investor emotions) are now fully in the driver's seat.

He also shares the many worrisome price and technical divergences he's now seeing that add validation to an impending correction.

And as usual, he shares the trades his firm has made this week.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#inflation #population #recession

Narrative drives so much of the thinking today, especially when it comes to the markets. To prevent becoming unduly influenced by it, it's important to ground ourselves in data. We should ask first: what is the data saying? And then we can judge whether the current prevailing narratives are consistent with it. So, what is the current data telling us? To find out, we're fortunate to speak today with Chris Hamilton, publisher of Econimica. If you're not familiar with the name, I'm confident you've come across a number of the prodigious amount of charts it publishes across a wide range of macro topics like the economy, demographics & the housing market. And the one he's most worried about? Demographics. The USA's population is set to start shrinking for the first time ever by 2035. That's just a little more than 10 years away. Follow Chris at https://econimica.blogspot.com/ Or on Twitter at @Econimica

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #population #demographics #immigration

The officially-reported headline GDP, jobs and inflation numbers look pretty rosy right now. But how much of that is due to actual, healthy sustainable economic activity vs extraordinary government intervention? Deficit spending as a percentage of GDP is currently at heights not seen outside of major wartimes and government jobs have surged, total federal employment reached its highest level in at least 20 years last year. Is the government putting its thumb on the scale here? And if so, is that a good or bad thing? To discuss, we're fortunate to be joined by Michael Green, portfolio manager & chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #stocks #liquidity #recession

According to the official data - be it economic growth, disinflation or jobs -- things could hardly be better. But if you talk to a regular person on the street, they're likely to tell you that times aren't that great, and getting tougher. Why is the prevailing narrative so disconnected from the reality on the ground? And where are things likely to head from here? To tackle this conundrum, we're fortunate to welcome macro analyst and interviewer extraordinaire Grant Williams to the program.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#wealthgap #wealthinequality #liquidity

The S&P finally hit a new all-time high of 5,000 this week.

So does this milestone give the market the green light to rocket higher?

Or is this the right time to lock in recent gains by starting to sell?

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks the latter is more likely, especially as the S&P remains quite overbought here from a technical perspective. Which is why his firm is going to begin selling off positions starting Monday.

He provides the details of his selling strategy in today's Weekly Market Recap.

We also discuss solutions for the unaffordable housing market, Lance's warning to retirees, the US' unsustainable fiscal path, and potential success strategies for job seekers.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#retirement #housingmarket #jobs

Markets seem pretty convinced that 2024 is experiencing, in the words of US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen, a soft landing. But what if everyone is wrong? And if they are wrong, which assets are cheap right now and what will happen to the market? Steen Jacobsen, Chief Economist and Chief Investment Officer of Saxo Bank, has been pointedly asking these questions of late. And today, we're going to hear what he thinks the answers are.

Follow Steen at analysis.saxo

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #marketcrash #election #interestrates

A few days ago, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee released its latest policy decision, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and reiterated that it thinks it's making good progress getting inflation under control while protecting the jobs market. Soon after Powell's conference, in a live event available only to Thoughtful Money’s premium Substack subscribers, noted Fed-watcher Axel Merk gave his breakdown of the Fed’s latest guidance, and then fielded live Q&A from viewers. Here’s the replay video of that discussion with Axel. Enjoy!

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #federalreserve #fed #interestrates

The bears had every opportunity to break the markets over the past few years: From a global pandemic with a broad economic shut down, to a resulting 40 year high in inflation followed by the most aggressive rate cycle in history. But the bears failed. The markets are back at all-time highs. And likely to power a lot higher from here, predicts technical analyst Sven Henrich of NorthmanTrader.com, which he knows is an unpopular prediction among those skeptical of today's lofty market valuations. Sven himself doesn't like it! Sven recently released a report titled 'The Cynics Guide To Markets', laying out the rationale for this sanguine market outlook, which I'll ask him to summarize for us in today's conversation. Follow Sven at https://northmantrader.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bullmarket #federalreserve #stocks

The S&P 500 is back to an all-time high and the NASDAQ is a hairs'-breadth away from the same.

Stocks have started 2024 strong and appear now to be in a positive-feedback loop, where higher prices entice more buyers, leading to still higher prices. Multiple expansion is underway and stocks are remain quite overbought in the short-term.

How much longer can the melt-up last for?

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and Adam Taggart discuss this, as well as the ramifications of this week's FOMC release and press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the new (and hard-to-believe) payrolls data, and the revision higher in Q1 GDP forecasted by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow service.

And, as usual, Lance shares the trades his firm made this week.

Here's the link to the 1970's news coverage Adam mentions in his beached whale story: https://youtu.be/V6CLumsir34?si=k-GiiDds3Rdjbpvc

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#federalreserve #jobsreport #bullmarket

The S&P and Nasdaq are back to all-time highs. And the recently-released Q4 GDP data beat analysts expectations, positively, by a long shot. So are we in the clear? Is the soft landing camp being proven right? Have we been able to side step the Lag Effects so many expected from the Fed's aggressive campaigns of rates hikes and Quantitative Tightening? Is inflation indeed on its way to being tamed this year? For answers, we have the great fortune to sit down today with one of the greatest living economists, Dr. Lacy Hunt, former Senior Economist to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as well as several of the world's largest global banks. He now serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #inflation #deflation

One of the asset classes I get the most requests to do an interview on is farmland. It's a form of real estate investment that yields cash flow by producing commodities -- all attractive qualities to investors worried about inflation and/or the loss of purchasing power of fiat currencies. But how does it perform vs other asset classes? And how does one invest in farmland without being forced to become a farmer? For answers, we're fortunate to talk today with Craig Wichner, Managing Director of Farmland LP, which manages over 15,000 acres, farming them sustainably at scale.

REGISTER FOR CRAIG'S FREE WEBINAR on Feb 6, 2024 by emailing ir@farmlandlp.com

#farmland #soil #organicfarming

According to the latest government data, the US economy is growing faster than expected, inflation is largely under control, jobs are plentiful and consumer households remain "resilient". So from this perspective, times are good. But talk to real consumers and you hear a very different story. The cost of living is at crippling levels, forcing consumers to stop saving and put an increasing amount of their living costs on revolving credit -- which currently charges record high APRs. Consumers looking for new jobs report the market is not nearly as hungry for workers as the government numbers suggest. Instead, hiring freezes and layoffs are prevalent. From their view, times are tight and getting tougher. Which story is the more accurate one? And should we expect things to get better or worse from here? For answers, we're fortunate to turn to Danielle Park, president and portfolio manager for Venable Park Investment Counsel, Inc, where she manages millions for some of Canada’s wealthiest families. She's also proprietor of the daily financial website JugglingDynamite.com

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #housingmarket #marketcrash

NEW!! SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com The S&P just hit a new all-time high for 5 straight days over the past week. It missed doing so again on Friday by the thinnest of whiskers (0.07%) Portfolio manager Lance Roberts says it’s clear we’re now in what’s called a “bullish stampede” in stocks, where rising prices entice more investors into the market, leading to even higher prices, and so on… It’s a lot of fun if you’re long. But realize that pure emotion is driving the action, not logic. Which is why bullish stampedes tend to be short-lived (a few weeks, maybe) and often end by reversing into a bearish stampede. Should investors try to ride these manic trends for all their worth? Or step aside of the stampede? In this video Lance’s shares his thoughts, as well as the trades his firm made this week. #stocks #bullmarket #bearmarket

A month ago, energy analyst Doomberg published a report titled "Peak Cheap Oil Is A Myth", and a few weeks back, I interviewed him about it. To say it ruffled feathers would be a huge understatement. Those in the Peak Cheap Oil camp have clamored for a chance to respond to Doomberg's claims, and that's exactly what we're going to do here in this video. Today, Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner of Goering & Rozencwajg, natural resource investors, sits down for a discussion with Doomberg -- which will moderated by yours truly -- to debate, or better "co-explore", the question: Looking at the next 50 years, is the threat of Peak Cheap Oil fact or overblown fear?

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this interview with Melody. Go to https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #oil #peakoil #energy

The US real estate market remains frozen.

Transactions are at multi-decade lows, mortgage rates remain painfully high and home prices are at near record-levels of unaffordability.

As we enter 2024, should we expect things to get better for housing, or worse?For answers, we turn to mortgage lending expert & housing analyst Melody Wright, who has been busy visiting many of America's most popular housing markets to develop a true boots-on-the-ground understanding of where the trends are headed.

Melody expects the spring selling season to finally start unlocking "true price discovery" for the US housing market, and predicts a national aggregate price decline as the year progresses.

Follow Melody on X/Twitter at @m3_melody

Or on YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melody

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this interview with Melody. Go to https://adamtaggart.substack.com/

#housingmarket #homeprices #realestate

The S&P 500 index closed at an all-time high yesterday (1.19.24).How much of a bullish signal is that for stocks for 2024?

Maybe not as big of one as many think. Remember, over the past 2 years, stocks have returned 0%.

Stocks are not at oversold reading at this point, meaning that there's not a lot of room to run higher before they become overbought.

Plus, the potential looming challenges of the draining of the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) and the expiry of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) could pour cold water on the market's euphoria.

To learn more about Lance's event on Sat Jan 27, 2024, go to https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel. Go to https://adamtaggart.substack.com/

#stocks #reverserepo #btfp

Rumors are suddenly flying fast and furious that the Federal Reserve will be soon ending its campaign of Quantitiave Tightening (aka QT). This is on top of the 3 rate cuts it recently guided the market to expect in 2024. Is the end of QT indeed imminent? If so what will the implications be? To discuss that, as well as the other major macro trends expected to impact markets most in 2024, we're fortunate to sit down with analyst Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research. Jim thinks the Fed is now scrambling to cut rates and end QT because of the brewing potential for a liquidity crisis once the Reverse Repo Program is fully drained.

Follow Jim at https://www.biancoresearch.com/

Or on X/Twitter at  @BiancoResearch 

And check out his new ETF, ticker: WTBN

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this interview with Jim. Go to https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #reverserepo #inflation #federalreserve

It's a tough time to be an investor.

There are cross-currents galore in the macro data, the financial headlines, policy decision-making, and market technicals.

After the easy decade that followed the Great Financial Crisis where markets dependably churned higher year after year and you could make money just going long pretty much any stock or ETF and "buying the dips" along the way -- suddenly it's taking a lot more hard work to earn a good return.

What are the keys to investing success in today's more uncertain environment?

For guidance, we're fortunate to talk with Andy Constan, founder of the macroeconomic research firm Damped Spring. His work there builds on his earlier tenure at elite firms like Solomon Brothers, Bridgewater and Brevan Howard.

He sees the likelihood of a 'soft landing' as low given today's economic challenges.

And in his explanation, he delivers a detailed summary of how the Reverse Repo Programm (RRP) and the Bank Funding Term Program (BFTP) work.

Follow Andy at https://dampedspring.com/

Or on X/Twitter at @dampedspring

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this interview with Andy.

#bftp #softlanding #reverserepo

The real money in investing is made by those who perceive what the markets are likely to do tomorrow, and then position themselves today to profit from that future action. Today's guest, Lakshman Achuthan, co-founded the Economic Cycle Research Institute specifically to identify these key turning points for investors. Which key turning points are in play right now? And how can we best take advantage of them? Lakshman predicts the slowing growth (e.g., recession) and a return of inflation will be the key themes of 2024. Investors should prepare for both in their portfolio positioning. Follow Lakshman at https://www.businesscycle.com Or on LinkedIN at https://www.linkedin.com/company/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this interview with Lakshman. #recession #inflation #businesscycle

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts has long stated that it's not the inversion of the yield curve that means recession is near, it's when the curve un-inverts. Well, we're now starting to see the first un-inversions. The 2s-30s yield curve has steepened and is no longer inverted. Does that mean the recession countdown has begun? Lance and I discuss this as well as this week's surge in the S&P, the latest on the bond market, the just-released December inflation data, the new Bitcoin ETF, and, as usual, Lances' firm's latest trades. Learn more about Lance's event on Sat Jan 27th in Houston at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #inflation #yieldcurve #recession2024

How stable is our current system -- economically, geo-politically and socially? The markets seem confident it's quite stable. But you don't have to look that hard to find evidence of stress fractures: from recessionary leading indicators, to struggling consumer households, to the frozen real estate market, to the breakdown of trade through the Red Sea, to the loss of faith in once-premier establishment brands like Harvard, to the polarization and cynicism of this year's US presidential election. What's more likely to happen from here: ascent or breakdown? To discuss, we're fortunate to welcome monetary and macro analyst John Rubino, author and co-author of numerous books including The Money Bubble with James Turk. Sign up for John's Substack at https://rubino.substack.com/

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #recession #bearmarket #layoffs

Well it's a new year and with it, I'm doing my best to bring important new voices into the discuss here at Thoughtful Money. And today we're fortunate to sit down with one of them: Cem Karsan, Founder, CIO, and Managing Principal of Kai Volatility Advisors, widely known as @jam_croissant on X/Twitter. He's one of the more requested names I've had from this audience and I'm thrilled we've been finally able to make an interview with him happen.And he thinks we're early on in a new secular change that will make the coming decade look and feel very different in the economy, markets and society from what we've become accustomed to over the past several decades.

And in the near term, he sees inflation likely to resume again, in no small part due to the Fed's efforts to engineer a 'soft landing' this year.

Follow Cem at https://www.kaivolatility.com

Or on X/Twitter at @jam_crossaint

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #stagflation #inflation #recession

Greed and exuberance returned to Wall Street as we ended 2023 and welcomed the start of 2024. Markets are trading near all-time highs, the Fed has switched to singing a more dovish tune, and confidence in a soft landing -- or no landing -- for the economy is high. Did we manage to emerge from all the chaos and distortion of the past few years without a major reckoning? Have we dodged the bullet of recession? For answers, we're lucky to talk today with top Thoughtful Money fan-favorites Stephanie Pomboy, economic & financial analyst and publisher of the respected research firm Macro Mavens.Perhaps more than anything else, she fears our growing culture of moral hazard, metastasizing from Wall Street now into Main Street, may end up being the trigger of the next economic crisis. Follow Stephanie at https://macromavens.com/ Or on X/Twitter at @spomboy

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #moralhazard #recession #inflation

2024 has seen the worst start to the year for stocks in 20 years. Is this just a natural pullback from overbought extremes, or is there something more worrisome afoot?

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts gives his answer in today's Weekly Market Recap. We also discuss the new payroll report that beat expectations, as well as the different story that appears when looking "under the hood" at the component data.

And as usual, Lance also shares his most firm's most recent trades.

Learn more about Lance's conference on Sat Jan 27, 2024 at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel

#stocks #jobs #investing

Nothing happens in an economy without energy.  And despite the current efforts & hopes to de-carbonize our energy systems, the world remains heavily dependent on oil -- especially as the dominant transport fuel in moving goods from point A to point B. Oil has had a rocky ride the past several years, with its price ranging from a high of $120/barrel to briefly negative prices at the height of the pandemic chaos. Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted global trade of oil, and so, to a lesser extent (so far at least), has the resurgence of war in the Middle East. What does 2024 look to have in store for this essential fuel? For answers, we're fortunate to speak with the energy experts at Doomberg today. The exceptional quality of their newsletter has made them the #1-ranked financial Substack in the world, for good reason.

Follow Doomberg at https://doomberg.substack.com/

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel

#oilprice #oil #energy

When I think back on all the experts I interviewed last year, the one whose market predictions played out most accurately is Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro. So what do his models tell him is likely to happen in 2024? In this video we ask the man himself.Follow Darius at https://42macro.com/Or on X/Twitter @dariusdale42

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #bullmarket #stocks #bonds

The past few years have been full of surprises, often going the exact opposite way that Wall Street expected at the start of each year. Well, as we prepare to enter 2024, it may help to tap the expertise of those investors who have been around the longest and been the most successful. High on that list is James Rogers, legendary international investor, financial commentator and author of several best-selling books on wealth-building. In this interview, Jim explains why he believes the next market correction will be the worst of his lifetime, and why he sees higher inflation and higher interest rates ahead, as well.

LAST CHANCE! SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get his Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel. But do so before the price increases on Jan 1st 2024! #inflation #interestrates #bearmarket

We're all aware of how the pandemic threw the economy and financial markets into unprecedented disarray. And for the past two years, investors have eagerly awaited them to return back to a state of normalcy. But has "normal" changed vs the pre-COVID days? How much of the old playbook no longer works well, if at all, in today's world? For answers, we're fortunate to speak today with market veteran Kevin Muir, founder and editor of The Macro Tourist, the highly-acclaimed newsletter that currently ranks as the #12th largest financial Substack in the world. Kevin sees the impact of the ongoing fiscal stimulus as being much more impactful than investors currently understand. In terms of spending into the economy, he thinks the fiscal flood has just begun.

Follow Kevin at https://themacrotourist.com/

Or on X/Twitter at @kevinmuir

TIME IS RUNNING OUT! SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get his Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel. But do so before the price increases on Jan 1st 2024! #recession #inflation #fiscalspending

Wall Street was extremely pessimistic heading into 2023, and the year surprised to the upside. Here at the end of the year, markets are now brimming with optimism and the S&P is trading at an all-time high. Is the momentum likely to continue? Or will 2024 be another surprise year for investors, this time to the downside? For an analyst's perspective, we turn to Simon White, Macro Strategist at Bloomberg and co-founder of the investment-advisory firm Variant Perception.

ACT SOON! SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get his Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel. But do so before the price increases on Jan 1st 2024! #inflation #bullmarket #liquidity

2023, a year nearly everyone expected a recession, has instead seen impressive economic growth and the markets power to all-time highs. How did this happen? Especially as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates above 5% while conducting Quantitative Tightening? In a word: liquidity. Liquidity steadily rose throughout 2023 and, like an incoming ocean tide, rose all boats. How? Why? Where is it coming from? And if it's such a key driver of asset prices, where is it headed from here? To find out, we're going to have a very important conversation today with Michael Howell, founder & CEO of Crossborder Capital.

Get Michael's book Capital Wars at https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392872

Subscribe to his Substack at https://capitalwars.substack.com

Or follow him on X/Twitter at @crossbordercap

ACT SOON! SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get his Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel. But do so before the price increases on Jan 1st 2024! #liquidity #bullmarket #stocks2024

In this final Weekly Market Recap of 2024, portfolio manager Lance Roberts explains why a short-term correction in stocks (and bonds, too) is highly likely. They've simply move so far, so quickly that technically-speaking they are at dangerously high overbought extremes. He thinks such a pull-back will be short-lived though. There's little standing in the way of stock moving even higher as we enter Q1, especially now that the Federal Reserve is guiding it will ease more than previously expected. Plus, a recession still looks unlikely anytime soon, jobs are still solid and inflation is coming down -- it's a pretty positive cocktail for financial assets right now.

ACT SOON! SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get his Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel. But do so before the price increases on Jan 1st 2024! #stocks #investing2024 #federalreserve

While 2023 was a much better year for stocks and bonds, the housing market has fared less well. Instead, 2023 was the year gravity caught up with home prices. They've stopped rising nationally for the most part, and certain once red-hot cities are now starting to see clear declines. Is this the Wile E. Coyote moment before prices start plummeting under today's high mortgage rates? Or will the housing market prove resilient as we enter 2024? To find out, we'll talk with real estate analyst Lance Lambert, former real estate editor for Fortune and now co-founder & editor of ResiClub.

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #housingmarket #realestate #mortgage

By many calculations, the stock market has returned to rich valuations. Following one of the best Novembers in market history and now juiced by fresh optimism for rate cuts -- now 3 of them -- in 2024, how valid are concerns that stocks are becoming increasingly overpriced and a pullback is warranted? To find out, we have the good fortune to talk today with Cameron Dawson Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth Follow Cameron on X/Twitter: @camerondawson Or on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameron-dawson-cfa-89754b22/

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the interviews with recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this one with Cameron Dawson #stocks #recession #interestrates

In my recent interview with Felix Zulauf he mentioned that we are shifting from a unipolar world order into a multipolar world dis-order.The majority of folks who watch this Thoughtful Money channel are primarily from the US, Europe and Australia, so to provide a perspective from a point of view outside of the West, we're fortunate to hear from Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank, who is based out of Singapore.Michael is concerned that the playbook nations are familiar with does not apply to the future dynamics ahead. Globalization is reversing in many corners of the world, and nationalism is on the rise. The tools used by economic central planners are becoming less and less effective. A new operating framework is needed.Will we adopt in time to avoid conflict and crisis?Michael is not optimistic. He thinks we may eventually discover and adopt the right policies...but likely only after we've exhausted every other option.Follow Michael on LinkedIN at https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-every-38983214/?originalSubdomain=sg

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel

#globalization #centralbanks #economy

Lance Robert's portfolio co-manager Michael Lebowitz kindly steps in this week while Lance is away. Like many, he was caught off guard by the Federal Reserve's surprisingly dovish guidance this week. There's not an obvious reason why the Fed changed its stance on interest rate cuts so swiftly. Just two weeks ago, Jerome Powell was saying that his committee was not even talking about rate cuts yet. So what changed? Could the plans to cut rates more aggressively than previously guided be a sign the Fed is spooked by something Powell isn't telling us about? Like greater odds of a recession ahead? Michael and Thoughtful Money host Adam Taggart discuss this, as well as the future of inflation and interest rates, liquidity, the outlook for bonds, stocks and the markets in general. Michael concludes by sharing his firm's latest trade in response to the Fed's words.

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #bonds #interestrates #federalreserve

Yesterday the Federal Reserve Market Committee announced it has chosen to keep the Federal Funds Rate steady for now, but when that changes, a rate cut is much more likely than a rate hike. In fact, the FOMC now expects it's probable it will cut rates three times in 2024. Following the release of this announcement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell held a press conference where he clarified the Fed's thinking. Powell projected a largely positive vibe, pleased that inflation is declining, economic growth is slowing from the frothy levels seen in Q3, and that the labor market is "coming back into balance". He no longer expects a recession in 2024. Stocks, bonds, commodities and nearly ever other financial asset shot higher on the news. So, is this this "all clear"? Is it time for the bulls to run? Or may history repeat itself, as most recessions follow the first rate cuts made after a hiking regime? To find out, we talk with experienced Fed-watcher Axel Merk of Merk Investments, and take live audience Q&A. Follow Axel on X/Twitter at  @AxelMerk 

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/

#federalreserve #inflation #interestrates

Bonds yields have weakened recently, making November the best month for global bonds since 2008 and for US bonds since 1985.

Is this the start of a recovery in the bond market, which has been battered and bruised for the past 3 years running?

Or, is this just a temporary reprieve?

To find out, we have to good fortune to hear from bond expert Alf Peccatiello of The Macro Compass. 

Alf sees inflation coming down, which is making today's 4-5% Treasury yields extremely attractive to today's large institutional buyers who want to lock them in. He sees bonds prices doing very well next year.

Alf has just launched a new course education the regular investor about bonds and how to invest in them:

https://themacrocompass.org/courses/#bond-market-course The first 50 buyers can get 20% OFF by using the discount code ''ADAM'' at checkout:

#bonds #interestrates #inflation

As 2023 begins to draw to a close, investors are feeling substantially better than they were are the start of the year. And as we enter 2024 where is all this headed? Will today's asset prices shrug off the growing litany of macro concerns and power still higher in the new year? Or will 2024 see a return to the downside? I can't think of anyone better to ask these questions to than today's expert, Felix Zulauf, founder & CEO of Zulauf Consulting, who presciently predicted we have entered the "decade of the roller coasters" where markets will rise and fall dramatically as the natural forces of deflation battle it out with the rescue efforts of the central planners. Felix manages a prodigious amount in assets, so he doesn't have the luxury of an opinion without conviction. He has a strong picture of where we are in the current market cycle & is allocating capital accordingly. Follow Felix at felixzulauf.com

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for this interview with Felix, plus all the other recent experts who have appeared on this channel #marketcrash #bondyields #recession

With such a massive run-up in stocks and bonds in November, should we still expect a Santa Claus rally in the markets this month? Or did it already happen? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks that may be the case, or if we do get one, it will be quite mild. Unless a pullback happens soon, which Lance thinks is quite possible. He's reducing his long exposure and waiting for a pullback at this point. In this week's market recap, Lance and I talk about the strong correlation between financial asset prices and net liquidity. For much of this year, "stealth" liquidity from sources like the BTFP, the Reverse Repo program, and fiscal deficit spending have helped buoy stocks to near record highs. Will that continue in 2024? We also talk about the odds for recession risk, which are becoming cloudier. Experts are now quite divided on the matter. With such uncertainty, how should an investor consider positioning their portfolio? Lance shares how he, as a capital manager clients, is doing so now.

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #recession #bonds #liquidity

Many of the guests appearing on this program recently, though perhaps none more than I, have warned that the Lag Effect will eventually catch up with the economy. That the tighter monetary conditions, the higher cost of capital, the rising lending standards -- are all increasing the gravitational force pulling downwards on economic growth. That at some point, "something important, or multiple somethings, will start to break" Is that indeed the likely scenario from here? And if so, is 2024 likely to be the year the Lag Effect arrives in force? To find out, we're fortunate to speak today with CEO & Chief Strategist for QI Research LLC and author of the book "Fed Up: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America" Follow Danielle at https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ or at https://qiresearch.com/ Or on X/Twitter at @dimartinobooth

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes form this interview with Danielle, plus all the other recent experts who have appeared on this channel #federalreserve #inflation #recession

There are a lot of narratives flying around right now regarding the economy, the stock market, recession risk, jobs, inflation and what's going to happen next year. Given the recent 5%+ Q3 GDP print and one of the best Novembers on record for both stocks and bonds, bulls are back to saying "everything is awesome" again & 2024 will be a great year for making money Bears on the other hand point to near-record levels of overvaluation, recessionary leading indicators and warn the inevitable arrival of the lag effect will see the economy in recession next year and the return of a bear market. When sentiment is full of such crosscurrents, it's prudent to seek the counsel of those who take. cold and calculated look at the data, to see what "is" vs what our biases may want us to see. Which is why we're fortunate to speak with macro analyst Wolf Richter of WolfStreet.com, who will share with us what the charts he regularly compiles are telling him about the true state of today's economy & markets.

To learn what's in store for this new Thoughtful Money channel, SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #recession #inflation #economy

Like many, today's guest was quite concerned entering 2023 that a recession was all but inevitable. But it never showed up. As the year nears its end and a new one readies to begin, did we indeed dodge a bullet? Or has the recession only been delayed, now ready to make landfall in 2024, perhaps with even stronger destructive force than had it arrived sooner? For answers, we turn to the highly popular and always informed money manager and macro analyst Michael Pento.

To learn what's in store for this new Thoughtful Money channel, SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #recession #marketcrash #deflation

In this week's market recap, portfolio manager Lance Roberts warns that both stocks and bonds remain short-term overbought here and are likely to experience a near-term selloff. After that thought, he does expect stocks to rise again into the end of the month, perhaps making new highs for the year. He also notes that as asset prices rise, it loosens financial conditions which goes against the Fed's tightening efforts. Assets are likely rising in part to the substantial liquidity pumped into the system by a ~$200 billion recent rise in central banking reserves, as well as fiscal deficit spending. These are inflationary and definitely make the Fed's job of taming inflation below 2% harder. Lance and Adam also discuss his market outlook for 2024, bonds, his recent trades and how investors should approach risk mitigation in their portfolios.

To learn what's in store for this new Thoughtful Money channel, SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #inflation #bonds #stockmarketcorrection

Recently, I was invited to host a panel discussion on “The Future of Money: at the New Orleans Investment Conference, which has a well-earned reputation for attracting the world’s foremost authorities on geopolitics, economics and investments. I’ve moderated this panel for several years running and, while the talent is elite, it has become a gathering of friendly peers who – with goodwill and respect – reunite to peel away as much of the fog obscuring the road ahead as they can, giving us a clearer view of where our currency & money is headed. As usual Danielle DiMartino Booth, Jim Rickards and Russ Gray were there. And this year we had the pleasure of welcoming Lyn Alden to the group. I’ll start the replay of this panel discussion in a moment, but first let me note that this panel was just a single hour of the 5 DAYS WORTH of excellent presentations, debates, panels and workshops that just concluded at this year’s New Orleans Conference. If you like the video I’m about to show you, you can purchase the replays for the ENTIRE conference at https://neworleansconference.com/tm #dollar #money #currency

The last time Simon Hunt was on this channel, he predicted a rocky road ahead for the global economy, that will eventually culminate in the massive pile of $trillions in global unserviceable debt going into default causing a worldwide depression by 2025. Since his last appearance, the markets have become a lot more optimistic, US Q3 GDP hit 4.9% and inflation has marching downwards to 3% -- all positives. Though on the negative side, US deficits & debt balances have soared, leading economic indicators have fallen to recessionary levels, and the Middle East has been plunged into war. Today we'll ask commodities expert and geopolitical analyst Simon Hunt how any of this impacts his dire forecast for 2024/2025. Follow Simon at his website https://www.simon-hunt.com/

To learn what's in store for this new Thoughtful Money channel, SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #recession #depression #marketcrash

Here at the end of 2023, confidence in the economy and the financial markets is a lot higher than it was at this time a year ago. Is that confidence justified? Or will 2024 deliver a rude awakening? To find out, we turn to the experience and wisdom of financial advisor Ted Oakley, managing partner & founder of Oxbow Advisors. Ted has over 40 years experience helping clients, mostly high net worth families, protect and build wealth through good times and bad. We'll find out how he's currently positioning his clients assets for the coming year. Ted is worried that the "worst part" of the bear market that started in 2022 still lies ahead, likely in the first two quarters of 2024. To follow Ted, go to: https://oxbowadvisors.com/

To learn what's in store for this new Thoughtful Money channel, SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #bearmarket #recession #stockcrash